NJwx85

Eye is clearing out again and -80c tops wrapping around the Southern half of the CDO. Guess my hallowed out core post was off base lol.

It does look like there is an attempt at building a core. The “eye” is warming.

I think the IR loop presentation now is more indicative of a truck tire (hollowed out core) than the emergence of an actual eyewall. We’ve seen this happen many times after significant land interaction and then reemergence. Hard to tell without recon or radar though.

The motion looks almost Easterly right now. That would prolong time over water. The core appears to be mostly intact, at least based on IR.

Has anyone heard from Josh since LF? His last tweet was about 5 hrs ago before the worst hit.

Nova Scotia better watch out. Lots of guidance tracks this very close to Atlantic Canada in about 96hrs. This after hits on Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda likely.

The eye is slowly constricting as you would expect, but the remainder of the structure is holding together remarkably well considering the land interaction and high terrain.

It probably peaked about 3 hours ago, but my guess is second LF into Cuba as a high end major. Probably 125kts if I had to guess.

The water is about the same but shear will be gradually increasing.

It’s moving almost due North, right along 78W. It should be back over water in 2-3 hours. It’s a much shorter trip than if it was moving more Northeasterly. It also will keep it over water longer before reaching Cuba.

This is what happens, especially when you consider the high terrain. But, the Northeastern portion of the eye wall is already more than halfway across.

Do you guys think it will weaken significantly before hitting Cuba? It’s moving awfully fast now and Jamaica is rather narrow, to the point that the Northern eye wall will reemerge rather quickly after landfall.

It looks like the NE portion of the eye wall is almost on shore. Landfall seems likely in the 3-4 hours.

This is the shelter Josh chose. It’s a solid concrete hotel. I remember worrying about him with Dorian and Haiyan but he always pulls through. He might be stuck on the island for awhile but he’s prepared as always. I wish he still posted here.