NJwx85
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About NJwx85
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https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/1958159185348091929?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw No idea why this won’t embed. I changed from x to twitter.
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Very visible eye now. It will probably be a major again today, which was forecasted.
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But that’s exactly what you’d expect as it starts to feel the effects of the trough. It’s already showing signs of becoming extra tropical.
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There’s a noticeable eye showing up on IR and there was another blow up of convection near the center. Yes, there is some dry air but I think the moat you’re seeing is mainly due to the expanding system. Erin’s outflow is now reaching into Southern Virginia on the NW side.
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Erin is looking good again. I suspect we’ll see an eye sometime this evening.
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The system is still really far South and there’s plenty of OHC to be had. If the shear relaxes enough there could be another period of steady intensification tonight. The fact that the core was destroyed might actually be better off because it was never the same after the first EWRC and was headed towards that hollowed out tire mess.
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Big burst of convection over the center in the past hour. Lets see if it can wrap back around.
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Wow, naked swirl alert. The center is closed to getting exposed. No model had this getting sheared apart this badly.
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For now the Northward movement has slowed. It almost appears to be drifting West the last couple of hours. The GFS has been awful with this from the beginning.
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IR presentation is improving again as deep convection is wrapping around the Western half.
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It’s going through another EWRC and there’s some Northerly shear.
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The 12z Euro is West again. Hurricane force winds come very close to the outer banks and Virginia Beach area.
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The current trough that moved through the Northeast is weakening and lifting out. The trough that will steer this out will build into the Northeast tomorrow night into Wedensday. There’s still spread on timing of pieces affecting the strength of the sub tropical ridge and the overall track. It’s the difference between a complete miss and a graze on the outer banks.
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Another shift West with the 12z spaghetti models. They all now make it to at least 70 W before recurving. The vort that eventually kicks this out should be onshore tomorrow so hopefully the we’ll get a better consensus by Sunday.
