NJwx85

What about for SE PA?

What did the 12z Euro show for Friday?

The 3” would be up near Yorktown Heights with less than an inch for Yonkers. Westchester is a tale of two worlds. The dividing line is often near Hastings on 87.

I could see a last minute cold tick that would bring accumulating snows to the coastal interior (West of the PIP and North of Rt 80) but as of now I think it’s mostly confined to the higher elevations of NW NJ and areas North and West of the 287/17/87 junction near Sloatsburg.

Eye is clearing out again and -80c tops wrapping around the Southern half of the CDO. Guess my hallowed out core post was off base lol.

It does look like there is an attempt at building a core. The “eye” is warming.

I think the IR loop presentation now is more indicative of a truck tire (hollowed out core) than the emergence of an actual eyewall. We’ve seen this happen many times after significant land interaction and then reemergence. Hard to tell without recon or radar though.

The motion looks almost Easterly right now. That would prolong time over water. The core appears to be mostly intact, at least based on IR.

Has anyone heard from Josh since LF? His last tweet was about 5 hrs ago before the worst hit.

Nova Scotia better watch out. Lots of guidance tracks this very close to Atlantic Canada in about 96hrs. This after hits on Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda likely.

The eye is slowly constricting as you would expect, but the remainder of the structure is holding together remarkably well considering the land interaction and high terrain.

It probably peaked about 3 hours ago, but my guess is second LF into Cuba as a high end major. Probably 125kts if I had to guess.

The water is about the same but shear will be gradually increasing.

It’s moving almost due North, right along 78W. It should be back over water in 2-3 hours. It’s a much shorter trip than if it was moving more Northeasterly. It also will keep it over water longer before reaching Cuba.

This is what happens, especially when you consider the high terrain. But, the Northeastern portion of the eye wall is already more than halfway across.