NJwx85

https://www.threads.com/share/BAU6zWmE9q/

My guess is Cat 2 at landfall with numerous gusts over 100mph reported.

That’s not the northern eyeball. The eyewall is still well offshore.

Half canes are very common in these setups due to the downsloaping effect. Essentially the air is comparatively much drier over land and naturally gets wrapped around due to the counter clockwise flow. A very intense tight core sometimes can overcome this. That combined with the shear is why it’s weakening now or at the very least leveling off and that has been clearly in the tropical guidance for a few days now.

All of the really deep convection today has been on the Western side of the circulation. I believe the Eastern side has been getting choked off some by the drier air wrapping in.

No. This will just weaken and slowly pull away.

I was out in Easton most of the day today. Sheet drizzle all the way out and back. It was surprisingly windy out there. Now steady rain in Rockland.

Very rainy and windy overnight in Rockland. More heavy rain tonight and at least another 24 hours of this to go.

Just getting started

A lot of that falls tomorrow night into Monday.

We’ve had quite a bit of rain in Rockland.

Less lift. That will change as time goes on.

This was the 12z EURO through 00z Tuesday

Radar is jacked

Ummm, there’s convection firing near the center and quite a bit of lightning now.