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BGM Blizzard

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  1. BGM Blizzard
    Shifted south a decent bit from 12z but plenty of room to spare on that front. Keeps the mix line south of NYPA line.
  2. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah start time Thur evening, so 4-4.25 days. Thought they'd add this storm to the HWO with the afternoon update, but they left it out. Think they are focusing on the mid week storm moreso for now.
  3. BGM Blizzard
    12/18z NBM
  4. BGM Blizzard
    BGM
  5. BGM Blizzard
    Indeed. Thruway, Capital District, southern ADK, eastern Catskills look like the consensus sweet spot right now.
  6. BGM Blizzard
    12z ensembles
  7. BGM Blizzard
    Euro maps
  8. BGM Blizzard
    12z Geps and Gefs shifted a little north but not a lot. Still solid from the northern tier of PA north. I wouldnt worry about north central NY too much. The thruway corridor might be the jackpot for this one.
  9. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah just for a short time in the central southern tier. The 12z gfs did as well but both are mainly snow and around 6 along the PA border.
  10. BGM Blizzard
    6z eps was even better than 0z. This is trending the right way folks. Widespread 6+ becoming more and more likely. Hopefully no more big shifts the rest of the way.
  11. BGM Blizzard
    Big improvement in the Eps mean. Start locking it in.
  12. BGM Blizzard
    Thats a sizeable SE shift by the Euro. Mix line stays south of i90 except for Capital District area. Less dry slotting too.
  13. BGM Blizzard
    UK still a widespread hit
  14. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah, the WWA will probably still verify over the hills of S Onondaga and Madison. Kbgm radar probably overshooting some of the bands.
  15. BGM Blizzard
    18z Gefs was another nice run. Now if can just get Euro/Eps trending better.
  16. BGM Blizzard
    Euro/Eps continue to be a stubborn pos for late week. Until they get on board, cautious optimism only. Pretty good look on most other models. 10:1 mean (Eps, Gefs, Geps) Eps members Gefs members Geps members
  17. BGM Blizzard
  18. BGM Blizzard
  19. BGM Blizzard
    0z ensemble 10:1 mean from mid week to 18z Saturday 2/26. That's a pretty strong signal for a widespread heavy snowfall event at this range. Just need the Euro/Eps to spread the love.
  20. BGM Blizzard
    0z ensemble members Eps Gefs Geps
  21. BGM Blizzard
    Eps def has a North of 90 look for late next week. Would expect widespread mixing issues unless theres an early transfer to the coast before this gets to Jamestown.
  22. BGM Blizzard
  23. BGM Blizzard
    Somehow held onto about 2" of snowpack in most spots. Total of 0.89" of rainfall. Wasn't even that icy this morning either. Think the winds help dry things out a bit. Reached a high of 54.9° at 2:19am and dropped to 32.0° at 3:59am.
  24. BGM Blizzard
  25. BGM Blizzard
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