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BGM Blizzard

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Everything posted by BGM Blizzard

  1. BGM Blizzard
    Lol yeah probably working on it as we speak along with the AFD update. The grids update every hour on Wxbell.
  2. BGM Blizzard
    Lol yeah that was the default. This site has 10-90%. The 50% version looks like the 18z NBM
  3. BGM Blizzard
    Latest nws grids
  4. BGM Blizzard
    Wpc 24 hour snowfall thru 0z Sat
  5. BGM Blizzard
    18z nbm Can def tell it has some NAM blended in.
  6. BGM Blizzard
    Buf expanded WSW a bit west to line up with Bgm
  7. BGM Blizzard
    Bgm expanded the WSW to the rest of the cwa west of 81
  8. BGM Blizzard
    Nam should be atleast a little south of 12z. H5 @ H36... More confluence up north and lower heights out in front. Vort looks a little weaker too.
  9. BGM Blizzard
    Euro shifted back south like the gfs. Even further south than the Rgem with the axis of heaviest snow.
  10. BGM Blizzard
    I'm guessing that's why NOAA developed the NBM model. Literally just melt and blend it all down and see what the average of the average is and hope it's close to the final solution or close enough such that major adjustments aren't required.
  11. BGM Blizzard
    1045am surface temp map shows where the front is located
  12. BGM Blizzard
    It's actually been very consistent but it's a bit of an (southern) outlier. Keeps mix line near and south of state line. Likely not going to happen as much I hate saying that. A solution somewhere between the NAM and RGEM is probably most realistic.
  13. BGM Blizzard
    Less than 48 hours from start time. NAM going even further north is def a cause for concern. If it's still hell bent on that on the 0z run tonight that's a major red flag. See what the other models do today.
  14. BGM Blizzard
    See my updated post. I forgot about the minor accums for later today. They'll look about same probably after today.
  15. BGM Blizzard
    Nws grids for snowfall. Albany scaled way back to blend better with surrounding offices. Buf and Bgm still > Ctp along state line. Buf > than Bgm along the Lake Plain. Edit: forgot Buf is forecasting some minor accum later today that's also included. Here the pre-storm grid forecast.
  16. BGM Blizzard
    12z nbm
  17. BGM Blizzard
    6z Euro nudged north
  18. BGM Blizzard
    0z nbm
  19. BGM Blizzard
    Kuchera avg is 17.5:1 at buf so that's almost certainly too high. Maybe somewhere in the middle but probably closer to 10:1 like LEK said.
  20. BGM Blizzard
    18z eps mean is near identical to 12z
  21. BGM Blizzard
    Not sure if that minima is gonna be legit or not. Could see a dry slot develop somewhere in the forum depending on how the primary behaves/tracks. Hopefully not before thumping anyway.
  22. BGM Blizzard
    18z Euro a smidge north of 12z.
  23. BGM Blizzard
    The point n click shows the difference in the grids between sw Oswego (buf) and nw Onondaga (bgm)
  24. BGM Blizzard
    Wxbell pretty awesome site. Looks like there little bit in the grids for late tomorrow afternoon/evening ahead of the main storm. Buffalo forecasting more than Bgm.
  25. BGM Blizzard
    Nws grids thru 0z Saturday Always interesting to see how the individual offices are thinking. The sharp drop offs at various county lines is kinda funny. Albany much more bullish than Buf, Bgm, and Btv.
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