Have a hard time believing it doesnt ping atleast to I-81 if a primary low advances into Ontario Province. Strong HP good for keeping surface below freezing so plain rain shouldnt be a problem outside of maybe far W NY, but models always seem to underestimate warm nose somewhere in the 700-850mb layers and seen it ping many a times in these situations even with air temp of 19 degrees.
540 decameter line is usually a decent quick and dirty estimate of where can expect atleast some mixing issues to enter equation.
Best chance for 6+ across E NY.