BGM Blizzard

Getting destroyed here. Just a white sheet outside.

Up to 6.0 now... 1.5 in past hour.

4.5" so far. Probably close to 2"/hr rate attm.

Bgm nws gonna be playing catch up all night. Latest update bringing 24+ totals into forecast around ny/pa state line. The meso band that's coming north from Williamsport vicinity looks like it means business. Will see what happens... Hopefully it's a tsunami of white rain! .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 7 pm update: With the early evening update, we added Yates county to the winter storm warning based on reports over 2 inches as of the update time and the latest mesoscale models which are inching north with the higher snowfall totals. The prospects of an intense band are increasing for later this evening into the overnight. Incorporated the latest NAM guidance which keeps the best FGEN forcing just north of Scranton from Wyoming county eastward to central Wayne county. Snowfall rates suggested by the FGEN along with model QPF and snow ratios suggest snowfall rates of 3 inches or so setting up over these locations. The latest 22Z HRRR has this band located farther to the north into the Southern Tier of NY so it is an evolving setup for later tonight. Snowfall totals over two feet are likely to occur where this intense snow band is located. We now show that stripe in the latest snowfall map.

Close to 3" now. Very efficient flake size for rapid accumulation.

Probably around inch per hour rate attm. Close to 2 inches so far.

It had been spitting snow off and on since 1:15. Now steady light snow. Roads are starting to get dusted.

Getting to the transition point where short term mesoscale models and nowcasting take over anyway I guess.

0z EPS mean qpf is actually noticeably lower across the board than previous runs. Some tightening could be expected as previous outlier solutions are smoothed out, but didnt think it would contract by that much. Ugh.

Yeah I agree. 18z EPS mean qpf actually increased a bit, so there definately solid potential for thruway areas to still get 6+ out of this esp since ratios should be around 15:1 I'd think. See what 0z EPS shows, but based on the control run moving north a bit, I'd expect similar uptick in the EPS mean too.

Yeah seems hard to believe BGM could potentially push 20" while SYR is only 4-5", but Euro is adamant on the sharp cutoffs. Guessing the remaining watches will be converted to warnings from Steuben to Otsego counties, with a WWA for the rest of the northern counties save maybe northern Oneida.

Yeah sorry I deleted and reposted now.

12z EPS qpf mean looks about same as 0z at quick glance...

Good to see BUF CWA getting in on some of the action now. All it took was a little reverse psychology from Buf nws and Delta lol.

That total QPF map is last night 0z run. Here current 0z...

0z EPS would support a WSW for the remainder of BGM CWA with the exception of Northern Oneida, but I suspect they will probably await 12z before going too bullish.

Yeah nice nw shift on 18z RGEM. Also eased up on the sharp cutoff.

12z EPS looked pretty solid from some of the individual precip frames I saw in another thread. Didn't look like it changed much from previous run. BGM must be relying heavily on that for the WSW expansion.

12z GFS looked bit more organized at H5 and SLP got down to 993mb in vicinity of the Delaware Bay at Hour 66 as compared to 1000mb on the 6z run at the same interval, but it doesn't look like the track shifted north much if at all.

0z EPS mean qpf

GFS looked like it might chasing the offshore convection both down in the Gulf at H84 and again at H96 off the NC/VA coast. The 18z run showed the SLP jumping around a bit too. Not sure.

Looks like 12z overall had slightly weaker storm and slightly stronger HP causing the storm to kick east into the Atlantic a little earlier/further south. Not good.

Take 5-6" off those jackpot totals as that's including the Monday storm, verbatim. Still a nice hit though obviously.

A dogsledder in Erie County caught it on video... https://www.syracuse.com/news/2020/12/see-video-of-meteor-that-caused-large-boom-across-central-ny-elsewhere.html

Yawn. Time for baseball.