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BGM Blizzard

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Everything posted by BGM Blizzard

  1. BGM Blizzard
    Eps followed suit. Small but noticeable shift west.
  2. BGM Blizzard
    0z pre and post storm
  3. BGM Blizzard
    18z Euro is amped and showing a better phase.
  4. BGM Blizzard
    Some monster hits on GEFS would appear to be skewing the mean a little bit. Also a little hard to tell how much tomorrow's event is skewing the indiv member panels. Can't narrow the interval unfortunately like you can for the 10:1 mean.
  5. BGM Blizzard
    12z ensemble mean 10:1 (not including tomorrow event)
  6. BGM Blizzard
    Hopefully the Gfs/Gefs is right. Euro and cmc and their ensembles are much more muted.
  7. BGM Blizzard
    12z Euro, gfs and cmc 10:1 for this storm only
  8. BGM Blizzard
    This looks like an advisory event to me for the most part at this stage. Like a general 3-6 with maybe a stripe of 6-9 somewhere along the front where the best forcing is (CNY?). The negative factors against a bigger event appear to include fast-moving wave, positive-neutral trough, less than ideal snow rates for most of the event, time of day (mostly a Saturday event), and a warm antecedent ground and air mass (m/u 40s friday).
  9. BGM Blizzard
    Same. Grilling up some sausage later.
  10. BGM Blizzard
    Temps at 12:30
  11. BGM Blizzard
    Sizzlecuse might make a run at 80°
  12. BGM Blizzard
    Marginal risk for Svr storms out today for large chunk of Upstate
  13. BGM Blizzard
    Also showing some impressive Cape for this time of year in parts of CNY along with strong shear. Could see a few Svr Tstorm warnings along the front.
  14. BGM Blizzard
    Hrrr shows mid 70s on the lake plain for several hours
  15. BGM Blizzard
    Already 60° here with mostly sunny skies. We're definitely going north of 70.
  16. BGM Blizzard
    These weak sauce waves arent going to produce much of anything anyway other than mood flakes. Aside from fighting the usual underwhelming snow growth and precip rates, now that we're into March, you can add increasingly hostile boundary layer, sun angle, and antecendent warm/wet ground into the factors working against accumulation depending on time of day.
  17. BGM Blizzard
    I agree 100% with that assessment. 2015-16 set the bar for an F so low that just the consistent snowpack for Jan-Feb results in a D- for this winter as it stands now. For compare, kbgm had 21.7 in 2015-16 thru 2/27 compared to 44.9 for 2021-22 thru 2/27.
  18. BGM Blizzard
    Yeah I just went by who was BN for the season right now. Definitely way worse in C and E NY for sure.
  19. BGM Blizzard
    Holding out some hope for one last big dump, but doesn't look promising. What a dogs**t winter otherwise. Hopefully ROC eastward will rebound next year.
  20. BGM Blizzard
    We definitely got a glaze here (few hundredths). The top of the snow/sleet mix had a nice crusty topping to it.
  21. BGM Blizzard
    Yes sir its an 2020 X758 4x4 Diesel with differential lock and heavy duty all purpose (hdap) tires. It's a lawn tractor on steroids. Plowed the 3" of concrete with no issues and I didn't even install the 250lbs of weights to it. No chains required either. I got the 54" plow and added the 9" wing extensions to it for 72" width. Also got the 54" snowblower attachment for deeper snows. Got it last April and have been very pleased. Would definitely recommend.
  22. BGM Blizzard
    Finished with 3 inches of crusty heavy concrete here. Currently 37° with breaks of sun and very windy. Plowed 4 driveways in the neighborhood including my own.
  23. BGM Blizzard
    Definitely going to fall short of WSW criteria unless that deform on the backside of the dry slot saves the day. But least it's all snow up there.
  24. BGM Blizzard
    Dry slot rapidly moving in from the west now.
  25. BGM Blizzard
    How much so far?
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