BGM Blizzard

Ensemble probabilities for 6+... EPS GEFS Canadian

Latest NWS snowfall grids. Easy to spot the cwa boundaries in certain areas. BGM clearly favoring colder/SE solution while ALB is favoring warmer/NW.

18z Euro unchanged from 6/12z with snowfall axis, just a bit less precip on 18z.

A balmy 38° here attm. Can still hear water trickling down and out of the downspouts. Snowpack def took a bit of a hit today. About 6" on the ground.

18z gfs was a wet run. Wow.

12z Euro was about as close to identical to 6z with snowfall axis and amounts as any model could be. For those of us in the S and E, we die on that hill.

12z Euro looking close to 6z thru h35 except maybe tad colder.

I'm accepting the likelihood of sleet/ice with maybe a few to several inches on the back end down here, and if the few snowier solutions win out or there a final SE shift at the last minute from where things currently stand, I'll be that much more thrilled.

Made it to 44° with breaks of sun. After the Euro run comes out, I'm washing my tractor and car off this afternoon while it lasts.

Here was 12z gfs 10:1 non-sleet, sleet and zr outputs

BGM and ALB mets gonna earn their pay for this storm as far as southern tier and Capital District goes. Definitely shaping up to be the nowcasting capital of this storm.

Yeah you and me both. I'm not an expert, but if the model outputs are correct, I think we get more sleet vs freezing rain as it stands now. There seems to be a few hour window where the models are suggesting its predominently freezing rain and then it switches to sleet and eventually snow. During the window of freezing rain, the surface temps seem to be hovering around 30-32 which may limit the accretion to some extent. There a bunch of other factors that go into trying to accurately predict ice accretion too (dew point, pavement temps, precip rates etc).

3k Nam pretty similar with temps and ptype outputs, but less precip than 12k Nam

Nam 10:1 non-sleet and precip type outputs

Or maybe not. Cold air pressing more by H30.

NAM looks more amped, slower cold push, higher heights out front at h18, probably gonna shift nw again...

Latest NWS gridded forecast at 10:1

Ha I'm not sure. I've never really paid much attention to the Sref since everyone seems to shit on them for their apparent lack of accuracy and being affiliated with the NAM? (I forget what the connection was to the NAM, or maybe there isnt one and Im just remembering wrong).

Yeah about 5-10 miles. Other than maybe the UK, it's now the only mainly snow solution for down here. Not holding my breath given where the rest of the models stand right now.

Last flakes stick around til 0z Saturday or so

6z Euro

Nice to see Albany wake up. Their NDFD gridded forecasts didn't line up at all with surrounding offices.