BGM Blizzard
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Esp this year cuz of most of us being well bn in snowfall ytd. We're getting desperate lol. -
Yep I noticed less phasing and more push up north as well. See what the eps does shortly.
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18z gefs has more cutters in the spread vs 12z
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BUF
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12z Eps mean has more spread vs 0z
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This whole setup looks like a thread the needle job and whoever gets the goods should feel very fortunate. Very delicate balance between a semi-cutter and flatter more suppressed wave. I'd expect alot of volatility in the models for at least a few days until all these different players get sorted out.
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12z Cmc Ensembles favor a more NW track vs Op, but plenty of spread.
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Eps mean shifted SE a bit at 18z and again here at 0z. Probably a bunch of big hits.
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No thanks. Give me rain, sleet, or snow.
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Not alot of margin for error between suppression and being too far nw it seems either.
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Midweek setup def seems more favorable to W and N NY. I've never been a fan of these swfe setups that rely on timing and boundary positions. Always seems to be late and end up hanging up further nw. We shall see.
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12z eps tightened up and is more concentrated on the GL vs 0z.
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Cmc ensembles
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@TugHillMattapproved
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Some nice fluff bombs here right now. Might eek out an inch from this arctic front before going into the freezer again. Hooray.
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I'm actually not lamenting a weak cutter with a brief warm up. Getting a bit tired of the cold and dry. Was -20 again here this morning. The roads and my car could badly use a washing off of the road salt.
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Definitely good possibility. GFS just shifted W again for like the 4th straight run. Hopefully you get decent ratios down there. BGM will probably be issuing WWA at some point for some of the Ne PA counties and Sullivan NY.
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Definitely some favorable trends from the meso models for those sweating it on the western fringe in ENY / Catskills region. The prospects for the VT slopes looking better too.
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Reed Timmer will be on the Cape. Can't wait to see his live feeds.
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Good trends today
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Outside of the NAM, everything has shifted noticeably E on 12z runs so far due to holding the energy back in the SW. Gonna be some epic melts this afternoon in the NE forum if the Euro and EPS shift as well.
