PowellVolz
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Everything posted by PowellVolz
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Well… I know we are down to only a couple of options that are on our side but I will roll the dice with the Euro most of the time. .
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You know we are struggling when we are posting the UK. It’s pretty though .
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Webb’s last tweet is the one that bothers me. If what he thinks is true then we have a problem. .
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GFS is basically on its own and I don’t think anyone is really considering it an option right now. It didn’t handle the path of the last storm well at all. Its track on the last storm for 3-4 days prior didn’t move and ended up wrong. Edit: I’ll say I’m not really considering it instead of saying “anyone”. .
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I think mods are going to have a hard time until the 50/50 low gets established. Probably why the GFS is acting like that uncle you only see once a year between thanksgiving and Christmas who gets drunk and starts talking to his dog that’s asleep. .
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Keeping the system to our SE for now is a good thing. .
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Man that was ugly .
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That’s pretty tight cluster for this far out. I like that a lot. .
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Oh I totally get your point and agree .
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Looks like an I-40 special on PW .
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I only look at it for validation these days. .
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I good with this though. I would much rather take my chances of being to far NW at this juncture. Been burned too many times when we are in the bullseye in that 4-8 day window. .
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I’m thinking the UK has a history of NW precipitation expansion issues? Or am I getting that confused with another mod? .
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Unless we get the perfect ULL track with cold air in place, the valley will always be battling the warm nose. .
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We have to assume this will trend back at some point but I’m wondering if there’s enough blocking to keep this from coming back NW in the 11th hour? .
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Be nice to get a couple shots of cold air in the mean time with half the country under some snow cover. Even if we don’t get in the heart of cold air, there’s enough to our north that a storm passing to our south will tap into it. Unless we get into a overrunning situation. .
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Highs in the low 40’s for the central valley with lows in the 20’s. If we can keep that low far enough south that the LLJ does blow us up I like our chances. Might even get some NW flow going on the wraparound. .
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Refresh my memory .
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That ole lightning in the winter thingy…
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Also just something to think about…. When arctic air is moving across the country, the mods can have a hard time picking up on waves that are imbedded in the flow. I remember several years ago we had arctic air in place and we were tracking a couple of big systems. The systems were several days apart but between the systems a inverted trough was sniffed out 48 hours before it hit and Knoxville got 4-6” off of it. .
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Just like the last two systems, the pattern gives us an opportunity to cash in but it does favor everyone west of the plateau and NW of 40/81. Not saying Knoxville, south won’t get in on the action but it’s not ideal. That being said, we were 25-50 miles from a good event. .
