wxlvr

Thank you so much Terpeast! That is partially what I assumed. I assumed this was because the modeled HP to the north is not as high as was modeled a few days ago, when we were worried about suppression, so the lower HP lets the low track more north and west.

I have been daily active in this forum for 16 years. I have always thought that we could do a better job of educating each other. It was kinda my point. How can I use the skew T charts to understand the dymanics of this storm. I could go get a degree in meteorology, or go to Mike Thomas's Facebook page. I just think we have the expertise in this group that we should leverage. Ok, sorry folks, done pushing this issue. going back to lurking.

From a scientific perspective, about this storm. I am trying to understand how three days ago people were posting "no temp issues with this storm", only to have the storm morph into snow/sleet/freezing rain storm. I understand that there are many variables built into the models that we have difficulty understanding their interactions, but what changed to cause us to go from "no temp issues" to an inch or more of non-snow freezing precip.

Amazing! Thank you so much for helping me understand the dynamics of this storm! (not banter).

here you go nw baltimore! you can learn with me! •1y ago A skew-T log-P diagram (commonly referred to as a skew-T chart) is a thermodynamic diagram used in meteorology to plot vertical profiles of temperature, dew point, and wind data in the atmosphere. It is a crucial tool for analyzing atmospheric stability and predicting weather phenomena like thunderstorms, cloud formation, and severe weather events. Key Components of a Skew-T Chart: Pressure Levels (y-axis, logarithmic scale): The vertical axis represents pressure in millibars (mb), decreasing upward (standard surface pressure is around 1000 mb, and it decreases to about 100 mb at the tropopause). These pressure levels correspond to different altitudes, with higher pressure representing lower altitudes. 2. Temperature (skewed x-axis): The horizontal axis is skewed at a roughly 45° angle to the right, representing temperature in degrees Celsius. Lines running diagonally from the lower left to the upper right are isotherms (constant temperature lines). Temperatures generally range from around -80°C to +40°C, depending on the altitude and the time of year. 3. Dry Adiabats (diagonal lines curving upward to the right): These lines represent the rate at which dry air cools as it rises. Dry air cools at approximately 10°C per kilometer as it rises in the atmosphere. If a parcel of air ascends with no condensation occurring, it will follow these lines. 4. Moist Adiabats (curved lines curving upward to the left): These lines show the cooling rate of saturated air (air with 100% humidity), which cools more slowly due to the release of latent heat when water vapor condenses. These lines start at similar angles to the dry adiabats but curve more sharply to the left with increasing altitude. 5. Mixing Ratio Lines (sloped lines nearly parallel to the isotherms, but slightly curved): These lines show the mixing ratio, or the amount of water vapor in grams per kilogram of dry air. They are important for determining relative humidity. They typically slope from the bottom left to the top right and can help identify the dew point at different altitudes. 6. Isobars (horizontal lines): These are lines of constant pressure, running horizontally across the chart. They help in reading the corresponding pressure levels for any given altitude. 7. Wind Barbs: Plotted on the side of the chart (often to the right), wind barbs show wind speed and direction at various altitudes. Each barb represents a different wind speed, with longer flags indicating higher wind speeds. 8. Parcel Path (convective parcel ascent): A key application of the skew-T is following the path of a rising air parcel. You can assess whether it is stable or unstable by comparing the air temperature profile to the parcel’s temperature. If the parcel's temperature remains warmer than the surrounding air, it is unstable and will continue to rise, indicating potential convective activity (like thunderstorms). 9. Lapse Rates: Environmental Lapse Rate (ELR) is the actual rate at which temperature decreases with altitude. This is shown by the temperature profile. Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate (DALR) and Moist Adiabatic Lapse Rate (MALR) can be inferred by following the dry and moist adiabat lines, respectively. 10. Dew Point Curve: The dew point curve, which represents the temperature at which the air becomes saturated, is plotted alongside the temperature profile but typically lies to the left of it. The gap between the temperature and dew point curves indicates humidity; a smaller gap means higher humidity, while a larger gap means drier air. Interpretation of Stability: Stable Atmosphere: If the temperature profile decreases slowly with height or increases (inversion), a rising air parcel will cool faster than the surrounding environment, causing it to sink back down. This inhibits convection. Unstable Atmosphere: If the environmental temperature decreases more rapidly than the dry or moist adiabatic lapse rate, a rising air parcel will remain warmer than the surrounding air, causing it to continue rising, which is conducive to storm development. Conditionally Unstable Atmosphere: The atmosphere is stable for dry parcels but unstable for saturated parcels. If a parcel rises and becomes saturated, it could trigger convection. Common Applications: Cloud Formation: Where the parcel's temperature path crosses the dew point, clouds are likely to form at that level (this is known as the Lifting Condensation Level (LCL)). CAPE and CIN: CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) represents the area between the parcel's ascent curve and the environmental temperature curve where the parcel is warmer than the environment, indicating instability. CIN (Convective Inhibition) is the opposite, representing stable areas where rising air is cooler than the surrounding environment. Wind Shear: By observing the change in wind barbs with altitude, you can assess vertical wind shear, which is crucial in severe weather development. By understanding these components, you can analyze a skew-T chart to assess atmospheric stability, identify potential weather hazards, and interpret vertical wind patterns.

oh my goodness, you don't know either? Ok, I will research and let you know how to read them.

Question for the group....Is there a tutorial on how to read these soundings? I want to understand what they are telling, but I can't get there.

Ha! I just responded...am I the 12th?

You are an idiot. Shut up and let the people who know what is going on to speak. I have been a member of this forum for more than a decade. It is people like you that make me never want to come back. Shut the hell up. You are just spewing junk.

Moderate snow in Stafford, VA. Grass and deck has caved.

Snowing in Stafford, VA

Bonus snow in Stafford! Where did this come from??? .

If they don't leave today, they shouldn't for two or three days. If they leave today, they should go down I-95 for a later snow start. But they would have to leave NOW!

All sleet now. Mixed for about 10 minutes

Looks like we have a great Charlottesville representation! (going back to sharpening my ice skate )