Probably just noise, but clicking between the end of the 22z and 21z HRRR's show the low trending further south and weaker. Something to watch going forward maybe?
Back when I lived in Chicago I was obsessed with severe wx. When I was younger I would take my grandma out storm chasing to watch lightning. Now I’m out in DC where the most exciting weather here is snowstorms... and we suck at those. This is a “hobby” of perpetual failure here in DC and for some reason I continue to care even after getting boned time and time again. Like Bob just said, we aren’t sane with this sh*t.
Surface depiction alone ( that's all I see out right now ), the 18z NAM looks a lot more Euro like than the GFS at 84.
ETA: Looking similar with the 500 Vort as well.
Man, this panel tells a lot. This is an incredibly tight set up as is. Transfer a little later... most of us are outside looking in for costal action. Transfer a little earlier... might be double digits region wide. This is going to come down to the wire for the coastal stuff. Exciting and terrifying.