Thanatos_I_Am

Appreciate the insight. Trying to follow here, is the advection lobe you are referring to the feature over the Midwest? I see the issues in SE Canada, just want to understand the first part of your post. Thanks!

12z AIGFS didn’t quite get it done but trough appears to tilt negative sooner. The smarter folks can comment but have to imagine that was a step in the right direction.

An inch in Cumberland and over a foot in DC. Even more of a reason to hope the GFS is right. The panhandle gets screwed and we win.

Are we sure we want him back? Keep him on the metro if CMC/UKIE improve, IMO.

Exactly my (albeit uneducated) thoughts. Seems like the SLP mean is being dragged by some outliers east. That’s a lot of lows hugging the coast. Not sure we can reasonably ask for anything else at this point.

Appreciate the quick post with comparison, Will. Trend is our friend here. Based on MSLP maps there was a good shift of members towards the coast. Baby steps!

Already seeing snowfall maps making the rounds on Twitter and other platforms. We need to limit access to this information for the general public, lol. Hilariously stupid to post these so early in a forum like that!

12z ICON suite made a big step towards the Euro solution. Hopefully we can get the CMC or UKIE on board!

Do we have access to the 6z operational run?

Things you’ll see in the observation thread Sunday: - The sleet line racing north ahead of schedule - “Hearing pingers in College Park” (4-6 hours before they were forecasted to mix in) - The folks in Frederick measuring snow in feet - DCA reporting a 6” storm total - Various posts from new accounts asking how the forecast was so wrong - The same old “looks like the fall line was the cutoff” postmortem Cannot wait!

You can almost feel the rug pull coming. Slow ticks north up until game time. Those of us in the district get our 3-5 inches of slop and the NW burbs/MD line pummeled. We’ve all seen this movie before

Have to admit - a lot of respect for those of you who can handle the rug pulls like this every couple of weeks, each year. Used to follow the models religiously and found that the ROI around here is… less than ideal (surprise). Probably some sort of confirmation bias in saying this, but it really does feel like models cave to whichever one paints a worse storm. This region feels cursed at times. Began to enjoy this hobby a lot more when I accepted that the mid Atlantic, specifically DC proper, is just not a great place for snow. 2016 doesn’t happen every year.. or even every five years. Don’t obsess over the 72 hour + HECS depictions and it all becomes a bit more tolerable. That being said, hope for once in my time in DC we buck the trend and bring that major storm back.

First JebWalk in NW DC. Absolutely gorgeous outside. Not sure there’s a more beautiful city when covered in snow. Steady SN seems rates are picking up as well.

Bone dry in DuPont Circle DC.

Puking fatties on 495 near silver spring. Complete stand still naturally..

Very very very small flurries in Jessup.

Would not want to be forecasting on the shore… wow the disparity in amounts is crazy!

Anyone have a good example of a Miller B that worked out for the DC metro? Would be cool to learn more about those situations.

If that trend benefits DC you can guarantee it ain’t happening.

There’s zero scientific method behind it, but betting against the model that shows the most snow seems like a sure thing every time.

I got $100 on it if you’re betting a hold

18z GFS is laughably bad for us DC folk

Jan. 2016 was locked in from basically a week out. There was one Euro run that went south but came right back. That was an insane week.

I’m flying back from Tampa on Sunday night, so knowing my luck this booms and I’m stuck down there! In all seriousness, 3-5 and then a dry slot would be pretty amazing considering what we’re looking at now. Hope you enjoy out west. Should be a nice storm for you guys.

Enjoyed the 30 minutes of hope we had this morning. About ready to call this one for us DC folks, just gotta pray we see something on the front end.