Thanatos_I_Am

Seems much more organized at 54 when comparing to 0z. Sharper for sure.

Yeah, this is my line of thinking as well. Severe is what got me into meteorology back when I was in highschool. Fails used to hurt a lot more back then. I think the thing with Severe is that (depending on the set-up) you can easily whiff. No matter the threat that day, you can always get screwed. Everything could line up perfectly and YBY could see nothing. A cell could hit 10 miles to your north and 10 miles to your south. It happens every year, but at least we can look 3 days down the line for the next interesting set-up. WinterWx is much different in that it no longer comes down to city by city, but more so county by county or sometimes region by region. The whiffs hurt much more. Generally speaking, if you are under a winter storm warning you can feel good about getting snow and not busting, unlike a severe ts watch. A huge winter fail sucks because we track it for 7 days tirelessly. The ROI sucks! I dunno. A big winter storm has so much more umph to it compared to a big severe day IMO. Anyway, I really value your posts during the summer and I have definitely learned a thing or two from you. Looking forward to the summer where we can start tracking CAPE and cold fronts!

Looks like 12z GFS is gonna miss on the Sunday threat. ETA: ninja'd by jakkel

Best rates of the event in College Park

The storm thread LOL. Good bed time reading.

CCB looking nice on the ICON compared to its previous run.

Wow! LE off the finger lakes. Any radar loops showing this? Would love to check it out. Just flurries... or legit snow falling?

35/15 in College Park

Probably just noise, but clicking between the end of the 22z and 21z HRRR's show the low trending further south and weaker. Something to watch going forward maybe?

The ROI is terrible for snow.

Back when I lived in Chicago I was obsessed with severe wx. When I was younger I would take my grandma out storm chasing to watch lightning. Now I’m out in DC where the most exciting weather here is snowstorms... and we suck at those. This is a “hobby” of perpetual failure here in DC and for some reason I continue to care even after getting boned time and time again. Like Bob just said, we aren’t sane with this sh*t.

probably just noise, but flipping between 18z and 12z, seems to be a little more neutrally tilted. Not a bad trend for us, that's for sure.

Brady always said his favorite Super Bowl was the next one. For Weenies, the most important Euro is always the next one.

One of the best scenes for his character! That and the scene where he yells at Ryan. Great show

12z RGEM is a beatdown for the DC-BMore corridor. Wow. 12’’+.

0z Euro, 72 Hrs 1005 SLP in E Kentucky

18z ICON definitely ticked south towards NAM/Euro Solution through 96.

Comparing to the 18z EPS, this seems like one of the more western outliers from that run. Something to keep in mind as we wait for the 0z EPS.

At 72, 0z ICON is slower and a little deeper than the GFS. FWIW.

I always root against a windy mess. Let me watch the fatties float down in the daylight, not some pixie wind driven crap at 3am.

Since it's an off time, didn't see anyone comment, but the 18z RGEM looks much more "Euroish" than "GFSish". On 500 Vort.

Gotta think some of that coastal precip on the 18z ICON would be frozen, around DCA. Surface goes north of 32 for 1/2 panels.

Surface depiction alone ( that's all I see out right now ), the 18z NAM looks a lot more Euro like than the GFS at 84. ETA: Looking similar with the 500 Vort as well.

lol... wow. Stormvista always seemed to be conservative with the snowfall.. but wow.

Absolutely. Cant speak for others, but I’d risk sleet for 12-18 then an easy 4-8.