Hoosier

Lake temps Nov 11 vs Nov 17. 4-5 degree drop near the shore but only a couple degrees farther out in the middle of the lake. SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 903 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES... CHICAGO SHORE..........43. CHICAGO CRIB..........41. MICHIGAN CITY..........46. SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY..........46. SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 904 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES... CHICAGO SHORE..........39. CHICAGO CRIB..........36. MICHIGAN CITY..........41. SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY..........44.

Well, the long anticipated Thanksgiving-ish storm is coming into sight. Here is what the 12z Euro has at the end of the run

As a fan of front loaded winter, I hope December is a good wintry month. A little concerned that it may have some problems. I would gladly sacrifice the first half of the month though if it meant consistent cold/snow for the second half.

It's times like this that make me regret not living farther east downwind of the lake.

Basically downtown Chicago... sorry mimillman PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 220 PM CST MON NOV 11 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0200 PM SNOW 1 SW NORTHERLY ISLAND 41.85N 87.62W 11/11/2019 E0.6 INCH COOK IL NWS EMPLOYEE Positive thing is that this cold will take a nice bite out of lake temps so that when the next legit snowstorm comes around, the marine layer might not be so much of an issue.

So we're going to pull back into something resembling a more normal Nov pattern, and it would be pretty bizarre not to since winter doesn't really lock in this early outside of the northern tier. Question is for how long.

Midweek looking good for a 1-2" refresher.

The thread that Thundersnow was too lazy to make.

If the initial band of snow could join up better with the slug of moisture that develops farther south, we'd have a band of 6+. Not saying that will happen but it's not that far away from happening.

lol

12z Euro did stop the bleeding at least. Would be a band of 3-6" in northern IL when factoring in better than 10:1. Nice size snow swath overall, especially for something at this time of year.

Feeling good about not getting whiffed to the south. Other than that am keeping expectations on the low side. Would just be nice to get some snow in advance of the more significant cold.

At least the 18z NAM isn't like the GFS.

12z GEM has a mesolow for the ages rolling down Lake Michigan. Not buying these model output verbatim of course but mesolow development does seem likely in this setup.

Pretty small sample size though. It would be interesting to look at November and how x total by a certain date or the end of that month does. At some point it becomes difficult to prevent an above average snow season if you rack up a lot early.

GFS being stubborn.

Acceptable enough Ratios would probably improve from beginning to end too

00z Euro looks like it will have a decent storm.

00z UKMET is nice.

Parameters look good to excellent downwind of Lake Michigan for a rather prolonged time. Should peak early in the week though as that graphic mentioned. The South Bend area or somewhere in between there and here looks to be primed. Impressive to see the global models trying to pick out mesolow development at this distance. That could play havoc with the wind fields and cause the band(s) to curl west at times to the point where it could affect my area and/or possibly even the IL/WI shore for a time.

A number of GEFS members have a better look than the op. I did read that the ensembles did not get the upgrade that the GFS did so maybe a bit of an apples to oranges comparison but still nice to see.

18z ICON Nice period of lake enhancement in ne IL too.

Lake effect parameters look pretty high end next week. Could really pile up somewhere if there's not a lot of band shifting.

Remember the monster low that the GFS blew up a few days ago as the cold air dumped in? That was an extreme outcome but let's see if things can trend any better with this in coming days.

Check this out on the 00z GEM. Look near Cleveland. It seems like a mesolow but I have never seen one so well defined on a model. Like this is ridiculous. There appears to be one around Lake Michigan at the same time, but weaker.