Hoosier

IF this airmass doesn't moderate in the coming days and there is a night or two of favorable radiational cooling, then we could see something pretty crazy especially where there is snow on the ground.

The cold is more impressive again on the recent model runs, and not just the GFS. We'll see if it trends back the other way again but it is starting to get out of total goofball range.

This would be an easy 3-6" type lake enhanced around the southern end of Lake Michigan on Thursday if it were a bit colder. But the marginal thermal profiles (especially early on) are a problem which will hurt accumulations. Could be a sweet spot that is in the band but far enough inland to escape some of the marine warmth and accumulate more efficiently but it is too early to try to figure that out.

Some lake enhancement does look likely, probably starting out around Chicago metro before shifting into IN/MI. Can't rule out some rain or more of a mix at first but as 850 mb temps drop, all snow should be seen even all the way to the shoreline. Lake temps generally running in the mid-upper 40s will yield delta T initially in the mid teens before increasing to around 20C.

I like the pivotal map better. The wave that contributes to Thursday's snow is still in no man's land well north of Alaska so definitely could see some model shifting to come... hopefully for the better.

System later this week has trended a little better.

Yeah not holding my breath on that one... at least as far as something that deep. Just a general thought going forward this season... some of these extremely cold GFS runs have me wondering if we are going to see an extreme cold discharge into the CONUS at some point. We had the extreme cold at the end of January this year and going back into the 1980s and 1990s, there are multiple cases of extreme cold getting into the Midwest in back to back winters or just skipping over 1 winter. Heck there has already been some impressive cold especially out west.

GFS is trying with that storm next week. Just not good enough. Need to bring the northern stream wave in farther west. The 18z ICON is what happens when that happens.

12z Euro is a bit south. Does manage to have a band of lake enhanced snow around here as 850 mb temps pushing -10C are cold enough to overcome the still relative bath water of Lake Michigan.

That GFS storm is a total freakshow. Besides wrecking the shorelines as it occludes and slows down, it has afternoon temps still in the single digits in parts of IA/IL on Nov 12th.

Watching mid to late week

That is a thing of beauty to watch on a loop.

498 dm thicknesses lol

There will be some warmups but it looks below average overall. It is quite something to see the cold air available to tap into at this time of year. I could definitely envision another snow or two around here over the next week or two.

We're in this thread now:

Storm thread

18z GFS continues to creep in a more favorable direction.

I didn't check the ICON winds. Was talking about the Euro.

There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low. There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level.

Euro had the higher gusts farther east I think (going off memory)

It is hard to overstate the tree damage that would occur on these rapidly bombing model solutions, even in areas with little/no snow, but let alone areas that get more significant snow. We don't see bombing of this magnitude squarely in the sub that often, and there is a tremendous low level wind response as that happens.

12z GFS doesn't do much. However, looking at dprog/dt, I get the sense that maybe it is slooowly trying to get there. Meanwhile, the 12z ICON develops much like the 00z Euro.

That is a tree wrecker on the 00z Euro. Impressive winds on the back side.

GFS ain't biting, so why not

Interestingly, Nov 1951 produced some significant snows unusually far south. For example, Chicago had 14" with virtually all of it in the first week of the month. Next week looks to have some significant snow potential in the Plains/Midwest.