SouthBuffaloSteve

The official end of winter!

Snow finally coming in! That lawn just might get covered up finally! Hmmm anyone else wonder how bad the mets at BUF probably wanted to bust out a snow squall warning for this band. Just think of it... Setting off everyone’s cell phone at midnight... That would be great... Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1126 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 NYZ001>003-010>013-290515- Livingston-Wyoming-Orleans-Genesee-Niagara-Monroe-Northern Erie- 1126 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 ...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON...NIAGARA...SOUTHERN ORLEANS...WESTERN MONROE AND GENESEE COUNTIES... At 1119 PM EST, a band of heavy snow was located along a line extending from near Niagara Falls to near Medina to near Brockport. Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour can be expected within the band. Movement was southeast at 20 mph. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible. This will create some blowing and drifting snow as well, further reducing visibilities. Locations impacted include... Buffalo...

Hoover Beach in Hamburg

not holding my breath for this to happen... .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight, lake effect off both lakes will continue through the night as the area of low pressure that is producing the cyclonic flow over the area slowly tracks east across Quebec. The trough associated with the vertically stacked low will provide synoptic moisture to the region through the night. With the approaching trough axis synoptic instability will also increase some as well. As the trough axis approaches, equilibrium heights will increase close to 7.5k ft off of Lake Erie and briefly approaching 10k ft off of Lake Ontario. Behind the trough will be a slight increase in cold air advection with 850H temps cooling a few more degrees for WNY to around -18C and to around -20C for the North Country. Off of Lake Erie, the northern edge of the snowband coming off the lake earlier in the day may make it as far north as the Buffalo Metro area and the Northtowns ahead of the approaching trough and with a 250-260 degree wind. Winds will be much lighter tonight than experienced in the earlier stages of this storm, but areas of blowing snow will still be possible.

Models were all showing the multi lake connection. That hasn’t happened yet. Nice band off Huron is slowly sinking south and should hook up overnight.

Ontario band looking awesome!

I’m interested to see how the schools play this tomorrow. A lot of them called out the NWS and News for overhyping a rather typical snowstorm. I thought they may pull the warnings for WNY this evening but instead they kept them going until 4pm tomorrow. So do they close the schools again? Would be weird sending kids to school while under an official blizzard warning... Even if it’s clear skies..?? Yeah synoptic was a bust oh well. But BUFs gotta keep that B word under wraps. The media ate that up all night flashing blizzard warning across the screen. Don’t want to debate the call on the warning but I didn’t really see it. They drop that warning way to easy these days. That’s 3 Blizzards in 3 consecutive years? LES warning would have covered the Erie event so far perfect.

Oh stop... We got more snow than that... I mean I almost got enough to cover the grass... Almost...

The 0 line is moving in... just in super slow mode...

Getting there...

Thought this was pretty funny... So they are filming a movie in downtown Buffalo this week and wanted to have it look snowy. Well with the lack of snow they were actually driving it up into the city in pickup trucks. Fast forward to tomorrow and they just announced they may have to possibly postpone filming due to the heavy snow and high winds.

Could we be talking about a dare I say it... Death Band off Ontario? NAM looks even a little further north to start right into metro Watertown. On the positive for us the newest run flips WNY into snow a little earlier again and puts us back around 6”ish in BUF.

Jan 2018. Had that 100 car pile up on the 90.

Not to jump to far ahead in time... but I’m still watching the period late Friday into early Saturday. Not that the high res is getting into range there is a chance we could see a slight veer in the winds off Erie to just a hair south of WSW. The NWS point and click hourly graphs we’re showing this as well. Maybe we can sneak that band north for a few hours.

Live look at the BUF office moments before the blizzard warnings were issued... .

Adding insult to injury the Euro came in weak sauce for synoptic snowfall tonight for BUF... Bust O Rama in the works.

WOW...

Losing a lot of confidence for the synoptic portion around BUF. All the 12z runs coming in weaker on accumulations... Pretty consistent in the 4-6” range now. It’s all gonna hang on how quickly we can change over tonight and just how much precip is left to work through once we do.

FWIW... BTV locks the Ontario in place for quite a while. 5”+ of liquid, obviously some of that would be rain on the front end but still.

Yup... He’s hyping up area wide school closings Thursday and Friday...

Let the social media frenzy over a foot of snow begin! Already talk of the B word... Oh my!

GFS still showing a foot in BUF by Friday night.

Look at that LES band off Ontario. Triple Lake connection all the way back to Superior.