SouthBuffaloSteve

Given trends in recent NAM/RAP forecast soundings being too cool compared to observed temperatures in northeast OH, it is reasonable to assume a cool bias for western NY. KBUF VAD is showing 65 kt at 1 km AGL and 100 kt at 6 km AGL. The intense wind fields coupled with the broken band of storms moving rapidly northeast along the I-90 corridor suggest at least an isolated risk for severe gusts and wind damage across western NY. If a brief period (30-60 minutes) of cloud breaks can develop ahead of the convective line prior to moving into northwest PA, a potentially more widespread threat for severe gusts could develop across western NY.

Report from a lake freighter of winds in excess of 80mph with the cold front. That initial blast is going to be crazy! * Special Marine Warning for... Nearshore and Open waters from Geneva-on-the-lake OH to Ripley NY... * Until 230 PM EST. * At 104 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 25 nm north of Fairport Harbor to 62 nm south of Western Vermilion, moving east at 50 knots. HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 70 knots.

The Patriots just matched down to BLM plaza in DC and tore all the BLM signs down. This ain’t good...

Trump chiming in. I think he knows it’s over and his last chance is to rally his hardcore base. It’s a crazy idea but could he stage a coup and refuse to transfer power? He can rally armed supporters in the streets. He’s moving a lot of pentagon officials around. He already has a mostly favorable rating amongst police officers. Could he be slowly beating the war drum for his supporters? It would be the icing on the cake for the year known as 2020.

Boo! Hate how they close down these parks during the wind storms. Gonna limit my options for driving around tomorrow.

Talk about a super spreader event. The “Million MAGA March” in DC today. Estimated about 10,000 people showed up. Yikes!

The Great Buffalo Flood is just crazy to read about. Wish there was more about it aside from a few news articles on the memorial dates of the storm that chronicled survivor stories. They estimated the water level at Buffalo Harbor rose 22 feet in 2 hours. That rivals the storm surge of a major hurricane. Most of what is now “downtown” had water 8 feet deep. Dozens of people literally drown in their beds as the storm hit in the middle of the night. Hundreds of boats were pushed back into the creeks and canals and littered the city streets for months. Many of the now homeless actually ended up taking shelter for the winter on these boats. While the lack of a break wall system was partially blamed for the extent of the flood, the storm system itself was unique. For the days prior to the storm strong easterly winds actually pushed the lake back towards Toledo. As the storm moved East the winds turned violently from the south west, not only causing a regular seiche, but also returning the normal water level that had been pushed to the other end of the lake, in essence a double whammy impact. It’s thought the extensive beak wall system that was built in the years following the flood have prevented a repeat event. In recent years most of our surge levels have been in the 6-8’ range with the higher end events topping 10’. The big storm we had last Halloween saw an 11’ rise.

Could be worse... my roof on the “weathered” side of my house is shot. The singles are starting to dry out, curl up, and be blown off. Tried to get someone out for weeks but the companies were all so backed up I was told by a few if I wanted to jump the wait list it had to be a cash job. Couldn’t swing it so Im left hoping our violent wind storms stay to a minimum this winter. Last wind event I had to pick up about a dozen shingles that were blown off. My only saving grace is I have a full walk in attic on the third floor so in the event I do develop any leaks I can keep them from doing an damage to the interior of the house... yuck... need a good blanket of snow to come cover and protect the roof for me, but that’s not looking likely...

Aside from a nation wide lock down, which he would never do, what else can he do? He’s left a lot of this up to the states to manage at their discretion. Testing capacity has increased, treatment therapies have improved, hopefully the hospitals have been stocking up on supplies and equipment over the last 7 months? Cases are spiking everywhere right now where they spiked in March/April. This isn’t a “Americans aren’t following the rules” spike, something bigger changing.

Think we have a real issue with the turn around time on the test results and with the county contact tracing team. Had one of the workers at my store become sick on 11/2, they went for a test on 11/4, didn’t get the results back until 11/9, and the county didn’t get the results officially to start contact tracing until 11/12. Luckily we’ve been pretty on our game and based on how severe their symptoms were we went ahead and alerted those who worked closely with this individual on the 4th that they may have been exposed and to self monitor extremely closely for any unusual symptoms. The fact that it’s taking 10 days for the county to get these results and conduct contact tracing is pointless in my opinion. After 10 days the close contacts, if exposed and infected, have likely already passed it on to a new set of contacts, rendering this whole method useless.

Not looking good. Yellow Zone rate today was 8.1%...

Might not be a full statewide lockdown, but I could see Erie County going from yellow to orange by this weekend.

I still would like to know how they are really going to enforce this 10 person limit on gatherings at a private residence? Not to be superstitious or anything... but the last time we had a Friday the 13th was in March. Same weekend we went into lock down #1... what are the odds this Friday the 13th we will probably be doing the same thing...

But I thought the virus didn’t take holidays off Mark?

What’s everyone thinking is causing the sudden spike? I know elsewhere in the country some places are very lax on masks and other protocols, but I think we’re overall pretty good in NY following the guidelines. We were good up through September and into October, what changed? Are schools causing it? Bars/Restaurants with outdoor dining not as much of an option now? Indoor parties now with people not in your inner circle? Virus mutation with the season changing?

This is like a movie...

Sure that’s what they charge... but with evictions on hold for the foreseeable future it’s not like you really have to pay it anyways...

Summer 2022 we’ll still be waiting in line for our shot and Biden will still be saying “it’s Trump fault” this took so long...

The more I read about this “doctor” the more crazy it gets. He believes people (including himself) should die by age 75. Then in regards to the vaccine... Emanuel argued, that “prioritizing seniors at higher risk would mean sending a disproportionate amount of vaccines to wealthier countries” Maybe I’m wrong but aren’t high risk seniors the most likely group to die from COVID? Shouldn’t they be first in line?

Sorry America... Get to the back of the line! Is this real life?

Quick glance at the monthly charts... looks like that year was the warmest November on record? Average December, Cold January. Only 5” of November snow, then an average rest of season... 82” on the season that year...

Destroyed that record high today! Wow! Interesting tidbit the NWS mentioned...

WNY is on the naughty list. Upgraded to a yellow zone in most of Erie County. Man... zoom in on that Erie County Map... there’s clusters everywhere...

At least somebody’s getting some LES... The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... El Dorado County in northern California... Placer County in central California... Douglas County in western Nevada... * Until 115 PM PST. * At 1209 PM PST, a dangerous lake effect snow squall was located along Highway 89 near Emerald Bay and near Echo Summit on Highway 50. Heavy snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches possible with numerous vehicle spinouts reports.