MUWX
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The Tuesday storm
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Local weather guy says hurricane hunters are flying into the storm this afternoon and sampling it. Will be interesting to see what that data does to models
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39.9 for me!
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That would likely be close to blizzard conditions for SW MO. Temps are very borderline though.
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There are some big hits on a few members of the Euro Ensemble. Most of the models have a big system, but lots of differences on when and where it comes together and how much cold air there is.
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EWRC discussion is what is most interesting to me.
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Cat 5 at 11.
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5-6 MB drop in the last night. Still well ahead of the HAFS-A, assuming that continues for the next hour.
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It appears recon is now headed in for the second pass.
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I don’t think there is any evidence of that yet.
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HAFS-A drops this thing to 900 MB and is considerably too weak currently. Lee might have a legit shot at sub-900.
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I believe these winds are from the SW eyewall, assuming the NE eyewall is stronger, I think the case can be made this is already a Cat 5. Should know soon.
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I think the whole weather community is going to be watching recon data flow in. It will be very interesting to see how recon compares to models, and how well the SPC has done in estimating its intensity so far. I think we could be dealing with a cat 5 very shortly.
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That is not intensity guidance.
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Pretty impressive bow echo moving through NWA. What month is it again?
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I've seen some talk of freezing drizzle tomorrow but not from the NWS. Itll be interesting to see how it plays out
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Yeah, lots of chatter about the possibility of a large storm. Saw a post that the NWS blend of models was showing over a half inch of ice early next week. Typically the NWS seems to rely pretty heavily on that model.
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Starting to see a lot of chatter on social media about next week already
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Being at 32.8 vs 31.8 probably wont make a huge difference once the sun sets. Accumulation should really pick up once the sun goes down
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Snow starting to mix in with the rain here in Springfield.
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Yeah, its looking that way but still a long way to go, and it could mean that we just never really cool off this evening. With that said, the HRRR is still 3-4 degrees too warm at soon .
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Yes, at least in the Mt. Vernon Missouri area. The current temp (11:30) at the university of Missouri extension office in Mt. Vernon is 36.3 and the 16z HRRR showed it being roughly 38 there at 11.
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The 16Z HRRR is 2-3 degrees too warm at 11:00. That's not insignificant
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Most of the models still seem bullish to me. Especially for northwest Arkansas
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May be of significance or it may not, but we got down to 24.4 last night. Forecast low was 28
