MUWX

Storm approaching Joplin certainly has that look to it. Rotation seems to be increasing.

4 minutes ago, SluggerWx said:

The cell due south of Miami, OK is organizing and will track really close to Joplin in the next 2 hours.

Been watching this one as well, it is fairly discrete. Some broad rotation is already evident.

3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

There is an MD out right now. 

 

And multiple tornado warnings

Not sure what they are waiting on with the watch...

Confirmed tornado with the Panhandle storms

Just now, JMT417 said:

And the disappointment begins...

I wouldn't get too worried about it yet. AFD says to expect changes over the next 24 hours. One thing of interest, they are going with the NAM short term.

SGF has dropped totals by 1-2 inches area wide, by their own admission they are going on the low side of guidance. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Hopefully the AFD will shed some light on their thinking.

Too early to temp watch? SGF had a forecast high of 45 this morning, now calling for a high of 38.

1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

Local TV met’s thoughts here in Tulsa.

I can say with some certainty that he’s pretty “over” winter at this point and is pretty pessimistic(with good reason) on snow lately. So take that for what it’s worth.

 

“Just a quick note: 

The snow potential on Sunday is very similar to what we have seen through most of the winter. Flurries and snow showers. Sometimes, in a very cold airmass like this you can get some higher snowfall rates. What I have noticed is that with this type of setup our data goes a little overboard this far out. 

Right now, I do believe it will be rather light and a minor event. Only caveat is that the air is so cold, even the lightest of snow will stick.”

Not saying he's wrong, but seems suspect. Although I can't disagree with continuance forecasting 

So how about that run....

3 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Yep same here, is all good. I think we are all miserable and just pissed with all these missed chances non stop is all lol

Just a brutal pattern this winter. Tons of moisture, an ok amount of cold air, time has just been way off. For all the talk leading into winter, this one has been one of the worst I remember. 

33 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Its confusing when something changes constantly is what I meant, nothing more nothing less. Its an overall confusing forecast thats it lol, I feel like you want to argue with people on here sometimes. Maybe I am taking your posts all the time out of context idk, if so sorry.

I probably just took your message out of context lol just a frustrating season all around. 

9 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

34 now, Tulsa's latest disco thinks it remains rain here and temps will actually climb lol yet the advisory goes until 6am. I'm speechless and confused, will continue to just watch trends but it looks like dry air is working in also back to the southwest?

Their discussion addresses everything you are confused about...

This looks like an all rain event to me in SWMO. Looks like the HRRR may have nailed this one. Not sure if its too close to the event for the NAM to matter, but 12z run had 3-6 inches of 'snow,' 18z run says what snow. It has totally caved to the HRRR. Temps have soared past forecast highs. Currently sitting at 40, after the high was 35, it has now been bumped to 41. There is a huge spread in temps and dew points here, which could save us but that seems unlikely. Maybe some mixing in but after multiple forecasters were calling for snow amounts pushing an inch an hour at rush hour here, this really looks like a big miss. Could be wrong, but I don see it.

11 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

16z HRRR shows a temp of 44 in Tulsa at 21z.

HRRR has always been the warmest for this event. Doesn't mean its wrong necessarily, but it seems to be the warmest model by far.

As of 11, it seems to be running 2-3 degrees to warm in SWMO.

16 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Local met Mike Collier in Tulsa not even remotely biting on this thing.

Hard to blame him... we haven't seen a single significant event this winter... you guys have had it even worse. I don't really see a whole lot to get excited over at this point.

28 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Amber did Tulsa put you in an advisory? Total bust here so far, been 36 and raining good all day.

One of these times we are going to get nailed and no one is going to take Tulsa NWS seriously because of all their boo boo's and busts. I know it sounds rude but I have never lived somewhere and seen so many bad forecasts in my life, it's been this way for the last 6 years living here...terrible terrible forecasting from them usually. And I thought Mt.Holly was bad in Jersey growing up there lol

I think you vastly underestimate how difficult it is to forecast winter weather in this area 

Just now, ouamber said:

SW MO and NW AR look pretty good for snow today. Good luck y'all! 

IMBY Tulsa is still getting screwed. *over it*

I wouldn't say it looks good for snow, but it looks good for freezing rain and sleet 

1 hour ago, Weatherdemon said:

Enough ice to freeze windshields and car doors.

Enough flurries to put a very light dusting of snow down.

What a waste of another system.

N of here got .25 or more of ice.

 

I will take nothing over an ice storm any day of the week.

The AFD from SGF is a very interesting read. Mentions the possibility of strong tornadoes, as well as a potentially significant ice storm. Crazy system.

54 minutes ago, ouamber said:

ugh...boooooooo!!!! Can the Euro ever be wrong?

Pretty sure it has been wrong several times this winter already but it was wrong when it was calling for snow and the GFS was not. IMO, side with the model that shows nothing then wait and see what happens. Typically, the model that shows nothing, is the correct solution.

25 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Euro just isn't biting on this at all. Someone is going to cave this weekend though. Will it be the GFS or Euro. Furthermore, who has performed better this season so far?

 

 

Also, NWS in Tulsa.

I wouldn't count on them agreeing this weekend, I expect them to come into agreement next Friday. lol

11 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

2.5 inches of liquid so I would say mostly snow. 

Freezing rain-->Sleet-->then Snow

Snow and sleet both accumulate at 10 to 1 with that model, so that's probably not mostly snow.

6 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Crazy, enjoy! That seems to be where all of our biggest ones keep coming from as well, surprise pop up things that are unexpected!

Yep! I am sitting in at least moderate snow right now. Starting to get that foggy look outside. 

Pretty decent "surprise" snow in republic tonight. Probably looking at close to a half inch and still falling