MUWX

Wintry mix has begun on the north side of springfield. Snow mixing in with the drizzle 

17 hours ago, JoMo said:

Dry frontal passage. lol 

Starting to look more likely. 

In the sweet spot 5 days out, what could go wrong?

49 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Still on the table for next Monday morning per GFS.  2-4 inches across a lot of the area. 

Euro has the system, but it is pretty light. I wouldnt trust the 2-4 the GFS is showing, because at least some of that is probably sleet. 

44 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Jan 11-12

 

It's a touch misleading since the Springfield area itself didn't experience much, but some of the northern counties of the forecast area saw 8-12 inches of snow, and then an ice issue to the SE.

 

 

Ah. Makes sense. I know the SW portion of the SGF warning area, is very similar to Tulsa in terms of WSW drought. I don't even remember the last time I was under a Winter Storm Watch. 

1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

Friendly reminder that the only forecast areas in the nation that have issued a winter storm warning longer ago than the Tulsa office is San Francisco,CA(understandable being the Pacific Coast), Lake Charles, LA(Also understandable as it's the gulf coast), and Lubbock, TX(although arguable they should have issued one last year when Lubbock received 12 inches of snowfall in a day). So when I saw law of averages means we are due, WE ARE DUE.

 

I sure dont remember SGF issuing a warning last year 

Wednesday night is looking pretty interesting for this early in the season

On 10/24/2019 at 3:38 AM, JoMo said:

00z Euro with the fantasy snowstorm on Halloween Eve/day. 

Gfs has this as well in the 18z. Not sure if it’s the same system or not 

Looks to have cycled and looks very strong again 

5 minutes ago, SENC said:

In other words,, folks,, Learned how to swim, real fast ..  

So are you still sticking to the cat 3 idea? 

4 minutes ago, METALSTORM said:

That KCK  beast is likely a high end EF4. And would not be surprised if it winds up with a 5. That home with just a basement and everything else gone looks like something from the 1997 Jarrell TX monster

If I am thinking of the same house, it looked like it may have still been under construction. Hard to say though. 

Stillwater storm has decent rotation 

8 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Quite likely that this was an EF4+ tornado. Major debris fallout on CC. 

 

Keep saying it, you’ll be right eventually. 

Pretty unimpressive right now. Would guess it is done, but you never know with these things. 

Velocity is a mess, will be an interesting 10-15 minutes as it figures out what to do next 

Just now, yoda said:

Lots of tweets now saying its rainwrapped... that's not good

Is it trying to occlude? 

Just now, Natester said:

Actually, there was a violent tornado in extreme southeast Alabama back on March 3 of this year.

Right. Let’s county I believe? Had forgotten about that one

Looking more and more likely that this is our first violent tornado of the year...

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Nevermind, massive debris blowup and cc drop.. 28.2%

Was thinking the same thing. Then it wrapped back up and exploded...

Velocity looking som what weaker, debris still evident though 

17 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Yeah, this could be a significant event at least for Central-Eastern Kansas. Not a lot to dislike on this 18z NAM sounding for Tuesday evening. 

Thoughts further east into Missouri?

Jeff City was rated a high end EF3, preliminarily. 

1 minute ago, JoMo said:

Looks like maybe EF-2 damage in Carl Junction based on the roof damage/decking being gone. Estimates are 100 homes damaged. Moderate damage to a couple of homes in Oronogo. All those trees though. It's a big mess. 

Yeah, that is similar to what I have been hearing. Definitely significant, but far from catastrophic.

8 minutes ago, Calderon said:

The Jefferson City tornado took probably the 2nd worst track into the city. Mind you, it’s one of the smallest state capitals in the nation, so the track last night was about as bad as it could get. The only track that would’ve been worse was an ESE trajectory right down US 50, crossing the entire breadth of the city from west to east.


.

Yeah, saying that storm skimmed the south side of the city is just incredibly misguided.

6 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Sounds like we got quite fortunate yesterday and last night. The Carl Junction/Golden City cell seems to have avoided the most populous areas. If it had tracked just a little further south, we would have probably seen catastrophic tornado damage with that cell. 

The Jefferson City tornado appears to have skimmed the south side of the City, avoiding the more populous parts. It appears poorly built structures were lofted by it, which explains the radar presentation we saw after. The CC drop, and debris falling out of the sky well out ahead of the storm, was highly suggestive of an EF4+ tornado. Not saying we didn’t get that kind of damage somewhere, but it seems like the worst case scenario was avoided with that one as well. 

Factor in that storms didn’t quite take off by the  OKC metro, and we really dodged a bullet on the whole. Thoughts are with those who were a lot less lucky yesterday.

Carl Junction is basically a bed room community to Joplin, and that tornado went through one of the main neighborhoods, Briarbrook. The damage was significant, but that tornado simply wasn't strong enough to cause catastrophic damage. It was mostly tree and roof damage from that tornado, at least in the Carl Junction area. It may have been stronger further east of there, but at the time tn made closest approach to Joplin, it was simply not strong enough to do catastrophic damage. The Jefferson City storm went basically right through town, it was on the south side of town, and then into the downtown area. Probably not the most populated area in town, but there are a significant number of homes in the impacted area.