MUWX

If the Tulsa storm can ingest the little cell to the south of it, it could really take off.  

Just now, weatherextreme said:

Interesting that the PDS watch goes into a general thunderstorm/marginal/slight location instead of the moderate.  Has anyone ever seen something like this?

Could we see a significant adjustment to the outlook at 3?

1 minute ago, iowahawkeyedave said:

Isn't this due to the "Plainfield Syndrome", where it's better to issue too many warnings and risk getting a few wrong, rather than underwarn and miss something critical?

Definitely at least some truth to that, but over warning can certainly be detrimental. Glad I am not the one making the call most of the time. 

Just now, Calderon said:

Then you have cases like Joplin, where too many false alarms and eventual apathy lead to...we all know.

Could just be because I live in their forecast area, but SGF seems especially bad at this. They issue a ton of tornado warnings, many of them don't seem necessary. Probably a lot easier to judge when I am the one not having to make the call though

3 minutes ago, pbrussell said:

I don’t know if I buy into the whole public perception thing when things “bust”. Your average lay person doesn’t geek out, following Mets on Twitter. They hear their own Mets on the morning news say “there could be severe weather tonight, stay weather aware” and leave it at that. 

Geneally speaking, most reasonable people hear a tornado siren and take cover.

This stuff gets blown out of proportion on these forums  and as long as local Mets don’t say stupid stuff like get in your car and drive south when there’s a tornado on the ground, we shouldn’t worry about it much in my opinion

Most of the time I agree, but almost everyone was calling for a potentially historic. NWS, SPC, News outlets, Twitter mets... everyone... and it totally busted. That has impact on people, especially when in general, meteorologists aren't trusted to begin with.

22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Exactly.  And as was mentioned earlier, often the people who call bust are barely around (if at all) to offer substantive contributions prior to the event.  It's like their main purpose is to waltz into the thread with the b word.

There is no problem discussing potential red flags as we see them in real time.  That is very beneficial.  The bust word has meaning and personally I'd rather not see it used while an event is still ongoing.

 

When the open warm sector is storm free and the other areas are linear, there’s really no need to talk potential red flags. It’s obvious that it’s not going to happen. 

As far a pre event discussion goes, the SPC was open about the reasons it could bust. Not sure what value we are supposed to add above and beyond what the world leaders in meteorology are saying at the spc. 

Looks like it could be trying to spin up again, but it’s in a terrible spot radar wise 

MD out for it

2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Seems to me that it’s going to cycle...

Agreed. Not sure it’s done yet. The air south of the line should be relatively untouched 

That thing ingested a small cell from the south and almost immediately exploded 

Just now, jojo762 said:

Not entirely for sure but think it may have occluded before hitting Leach.

I can’t tell, quite the circulation but it’s not nearly as tight as it was 

Potentially the first tornado emergency that Tulsa has ever issued? 

Not trying to sound like a certain ok met here, but that debris ball is over a mile wide 

Likely the tornado of the day, and it’s at 10:45. Terrifying. 

Debris being lofted over 8k feet

1 minute ago, Jackstraw said:

Even with the latest 1 day outlook downgrade the storms have still not entered the area the SPC thinks is the most volatile, at night no less (I can't stress a nocturnal threat enough).  Sorry but professionals don't make decisions on one storm.

The current high risk is based off of one storm. The large moderate risk, is obviously not. 

1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

Tulsa storm showing some signs of a hook...

Been watching that one, inflow is seriously impeded by junk to the south luckily. 

2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

What I got overall from it is there is still a potentially volatile atmosphere in place and though we missed it to the negative early there's no reason to downplay potential.  The powder is still in the keg.  Whether a spark gets to it remains to be seen.  Merso analysis is getting a bit concerning in the watch areas into Arkansas.  Night time outbreaks are few and far between but not to be messed with as that's when folks are the most vulnerable even in the techno cocoon we live in now.

Oh come on. The ‘powder keg’ was one storm that was tornado warned at 8, and is now no longer tornado warned. 

Just now, jojo762 said:

SPC (Broyles) maintains a high risk area...

All based on one storm. Not sure I get it, but it doesn’t really matter at this point 

4 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

0100Z outlook is over ten minutes late now.

I wonder what the deal is... can’t be that much to figure out at this point. 

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Been kinda watching this area but it appears some convection is trying to get going.

 

There has been stuff like that in that area for the last two hours. Hasn’t been able to do anything more than a shower. Could change, but seems unlikely at this point. 

2 minutes ago, iowahawkeyedave said:

Based on soundings and models however, it's easy to see why they went high risk.  It's always easy to play Monday morning QB though.  SPC made the right call based on the data they saw, that screamed high risk potential.  Mother Nature just didn't feel the same way, so what can you do?

You basically just repeated what I said I more words lol 

3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

One, singular tornado warning in the large high risk area at 2337z... Brutal. SPC did not make the wrong call, with any given forecast there are usually multiple possible failure modes. It appears that one or more of those possible failure modes occurred. Massive pool of cold air, ill/late timed wave, etc... Storm mode seemed fine for the most part, as long as storms were in the warm sector, storms just didn't do it.

I mean the SPC certainly made the wrong call. They might have read the info they had correctly, but it was still the wrong call. 

I would guess that the next time there is a high risk, schools will think long and hard before canceling. 

There is some serious wish casting going on in this thread 

1 minute ago, DanLarsen34 said:

I’m going to preach patience with this set-up. Things are really starting organize across the high risk area. Yes, we don’t have widespread warm sector development well ahead of the dry line, but we don’t need that to have several long-track violent tornadoes today. 

Its not over, but its not what we thought it was going to be 5 hours ago. SPC has already admitted in an MD that the SC OK high risk is not looking like it will verify.