MUWX

2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

18z GFS with the swing and a miss.  

GFS is jumping around a lot it seems. I am going to side with the Euro until I see a reason not to. Partly because it has me getting a snow storm.... party because it has been pretty consistent. 

Ensembles are pretty snowy. about 20% of them are fairly impressive for the springfield area. 

Sign me up for that 

13 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Looks to me like the current “consensus” is for Southern MO to have the best chances as it stands.  Obviously a LONG way to go.  GFS tucking south is a good sign.  We’ll see what the Canadian and Euro has to stay.  

Bottom line is nothing is off the table yet.  

Depends on how you define southern MO. I think somewhere between the I70 and I44 corridor is in the best place ATM. A long ways to go though 

1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

OK, here are the latest 5 Euro runs. I analyzed the snowfall amounts in a 100 mile radius of Tulsa. Here are my results. Looking for trends here.

Number of members from each run are indicated below.

0 Inches. 18,8,6,3,2   Summary: looks more and more likely that a "no snow" option is out the door. 

Under 1 inch.  8,14,15,20,19  Summary: Better than nothing, but an underwhelming category. Goes up over recent runs, mainly converting "no snow" options to minimal snow(so still positive).

1-3 inches. 10,14,12,14,11  Summary: This is a broad category that I'll refine in future analysis, some of these are 1 inch across half the area, others are a solid 2 inches across everywhere. Regardless, this option remains pretty steady consisting of about 20%-25% of the members.

3+ inches,  14,14,17,13,18 Summary: Some of these are BOMBS, some are just a respectable swath of 3-4 inches, some give half the area a winter storm while leaving the other half out high and dry. Point is, this category has remained pretty steady throughout the last couple days. Last night's run brought it down to a low, but then the 6Z brought it up to a high(don't know if we can trust the 6z). If the 12Z this afternoon brings this category back to last night's, then we can throw out the 6Z.

 

So it looks like someone within 100 mile radius of Tulsa is pretty much guaranteed to get snow, could be a trace, could be a good dumping. Time to wait for the 12Z Euro.

Is the 06z available any where publicly? 

12z GFS looks to be a step in the right direction.

Just now, StormChazer said:

Anyone know if the 06Z and 18Z runs of the Euro are ever worth looking at?

Probably about as much as the GFS, if I were to guess. 

Just as much spread on the 0z ensembles as there was on the 12z. Lots of bust, several boom. 

3 minutes ago, lokee said:

This was posted on KFOR in Okc FB page on 12/10 around 7:45 

Seems like this is already starting to get a decent of media attention. Probably the kiss of death 

Just now, StormChazer said:

I'll post the 12Z ensembles shortly.

Not sure if there's any free public options.

I can find the Euro ensembles super easily but I have never been able to find the GFS ensembles 

There were a few very impressive members on the Euro ensemble. Close to 20 members showed roughly 3+ for the springfield area. 

Is there somewhere you can publicly view the GFS ensembles?

1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

If the Euro holds it's ground on the 12Z then I'll feel ok with this GFS run, bound to have fluctuations. If it backs off too, then I'll just go cry in a corner at work.

Im not gonna get too worried about a single model run 5-6 days out. 

Well that was disappointing 

Anyone have a breakdown of the ensembles? I looked at the 12z ensembles last night, and there were several with decent hits. Did 0z continue that trend?

Weather service mentioned it as well, but basically just said stay tuned. 

Thankful for a lot of things, but 34 and rain is not one 

 A couple nights ago Ron Hearst at KY3 came out with his winter forecast. Really went all out with his forecast, calling for somewhere between 7" to several feet of snow this winter. These winter forecasts are a joke. 

52 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Lol. It's just Nov 18th. I'm more concerned with the long range models showing less of a -EPO and more of a -PNA pattern. 

hahaha oh i know, we are still a month away from really getting into winter. I have been reading a lot about what you are saying, not a great sign. 

That cold snap and minor snow event has me restless. Where is the snow? 

16 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Yeah I saw that next weekendish. Just a very marginal setup where a lot of things can and probably will go wrong or trend in the wrong direction. We'll see though.

Yeah, for sure. Its a long ways off, but I thought it was interesting that all three models were showing something in that general time frame. Something to watch at least. I'll try to look at the ensembles this evening to see if there is actually any support for it. 

7 minutes ago, JoMo said:

I guess the EPS (Euro) has a lack of blocking, which results in warmer temps. This was last night. FWIW, the Canadian is on the GFS side as well. Plus tropical forcing should be more towards the GFS as well. The Euro or GFS is gonna bust. 

 

 

12Z Euro has a mid mo snow storm. Not sure if ensembles are out for that yet, but GFS was similar. 

I'm hearing that there are a lot of wrecks in the Springfield area. Still snowing at a moderate rate. I think the NWS definitely underestimated the impact of this one.

Tiny flakes, but this band over Springfield has visibility down to about a quarter mile  

Light to moderate snow, freezing cold, stiff north wind.... Man... this is making me really want a big storm 

SGF went with a WWA area wide