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MUWX

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Everything posted by MUWX

  1. MUWX
    Watches coming out now. I thought they might wait until tomorrow, but Oklahoma offices are pulling the trigger now and I assume the rest will follow.
  2. MUWX
    Still seemingly a lot of possibilities on the table. The Euro and Canadian are pretty good hits for Southern Missouri, while the GFS is still pretty much nothing up this way. They all 3 have different possible outcomes on the table, still a lot to figure out with this one.
  3. MUWX
    The GFS just keeps getting worse.
  4. MUWX
    I think they’re generally pretty reliable, but there’s some concern this time that they may struggle because of how strong the high‑pressure system is expected to be. SGF noted that they will likely have difficulty since we have very few past cases with a similar setup. They’ve consistently been on the northern edge of the guidance, likely because they’re underestimating the strength of the high pressure.
  5. MUWX
    It sure seems like these things always come north in the final days. However, that high pressure is insanely strong, which gives me some pause. SGF has had some good AFDs over the past day or so, hopefully we get another good one this afternoon.
  6. MUWX
    Watching the Deep South get the late week storm would really suck…. Hopefully it comes north and isn’t ice.
  7. MUWX
    CFS/Canadian are really trying to something of interest late next week.
  8. MUWX
    This pattern is beyond brutal
  9. MUWX
    It kept it at 06z but appears to be on an island by itself. NWS doesn’t even mention the possibility in their latest discussion.
  10. MUWX
    This has out preformed my (very low) expectations so far here in Springfield. Roads are a mess, I am a little surprised that SGF hasnt pulled the trigger on an advisory.
  11. MUWX
    Looks icy at this range
  12. MUWX
    SGF reported 3.5" at 6:00, just a stunning bust. The 00Z NMB last night was almost 12 inches. Hard to comprehend how everything missed that badly 12 hours from the start of the event.
  13. MUWX
    I am guessing we are around 4 inches. SGF seeing the radar and high res models today and still coming out at 2:00 and saying 8-10 more inches was on the way is so on brand for SGF.
  14. MUWX
    I hope they are right, but man, I really don't see it.
  15. MUWX
    Pretty crazy that after how promising this looked last night that this might not end up being our biggest storm of the season.
  16. MUWX
    HRRR has kind of said we are an hour or two away from it filling in all morning, and we are still an hour or two away on the latest HRRR. Seeing a lot of chatter on twitter from 'Mets' on twitter that they think most of Oklahoma is going to under perform because dry air. (full disclosure, i dont know if any of them are actual mets)
  17. MUWX
    Radar in Oklahoma is concerning to me. High res models from yesterday afternoon greatly overestimated moisture down there it appears. Long ways to go, but I have to assume that has downstream impacts.
  18. MUWX
    Pretty cool page from SGF. Has pretty detailed point forecasts for cities in their CWA. Also has the boom or bust feature. Pretty crazy that a bust in the Joplin area is 7-8 inches. https://www.weather.gov/sgf/winter
  19. MUWX
    I think blizzard conditions are a lock but I don’t see anyone hitting the 3 hour sustained wind criteria for it to actually be upgraded to a blizzard warning.
  20. MUWX
    Hard to draw up a better run than that GFS run for southern Missouri this close to the start of an event
  21. MUWX
    Springfield going with a warning this early is a little surprising
  22. MUWX
    Springfield updated their watch. They are now calling for 7-14 inches.
  23. MUWX
    The watch KC put up is more aggressive. 6-10 is their initial guess for their southern counties
  24. MUWX
    I am not sure when they started doing them, but the probabilities in AFDs and watches stinks.
  25. MUWX
    Models do seem to be picking up on more of a warm nose, which could be problematic.
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