MUWX
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The Canadian and GFS both have big storms for the area. Looks like someone could get smacked with ice and someone is going to be really upset with how much sleet they get
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GFS is somewhat consistent with a threat next weekend. Looks icy.
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GFS has been pretty consistent with a storm of interest around thanksgiving.
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Surge appears to be starting to reach the coast.
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Pretty hard to draw up a worse scenario. Concerning because of how well it initialized.
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HMON is an absolutely terrifying run for central Florida. If this thing is still in the low 900s tomorrow afternoon, the surge forecast is likely underdone, potentially substantially so. Looks like it might be heading for a landfall north of Tampa.
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Andy Hazelton pointed out that yesterdays 12z HAFS-B model run has been incredibly accurate so far, and it depicts Milton going to 880 mb tonight. Could be an absolutely historic night and insane model verification.
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Looks like another EWR could be getting underway now, as well. Andy Hazelton calling this out too on twitter.
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Will they do a special advisory to update pressure or not? Hoping to see a sub 900 advisory
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Well we haven’t had recon for several hours to confirm if there is a double wind maxima or not. The fact that NHC mentioned it might already be underway is reason enough to not discount the possibility.
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I don’t think that’s necessarily a given fact. The NHC explicitly stated an ERC could be beginning. Radar out of Mexico showed a most and a possible, partial, outer eye wall developing a couple hours ago. Eye seems to be cooling some as well. We shall see what recon finds.
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Looks like it turned around on flight aware but could be a bug or something. Not sure.
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Very curious to see what recon finds this afternoon. Certainly looks to still be intensifying, but man, I’m just not sure how much more intensification the environment can actually support. Could be an all time recon incoming if intensification is continuing.
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I’m really surprised the aren’t moving up recon. Waiting until tomorrow feels like a mistake.
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The expansion of the eye wall could be a problem for Tallahassee
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If it is, it barely is. The west side is very weak.
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People have been posting this since Monday. Eventually it’ll be right…. Maybe.
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Looks like it’s taking another big gulp of dry air on IR.
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I’m not sure recon even supports current NHC winds. Category 4 becoming much less likely.
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I’ll be interested to see if the NHC waivers at all in their next update. It has a long ways to go to reach the forecast for how mediocre it looks now. Dry air is doing a number on it, and big storms never really may wrap up quickly. I have my doubts that this gets to cat 4 before land fall.
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Speculation on Twitter is that this thing is well ahead of schedule. Very interested to see what recon finds.
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Because the expect it to make landfall before 8:00. The advisory says the still expect landfall as a major, it will just be slightly inland and weakening at 8:00 now.
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Thats not how the cone works
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Likely the result of the heat island effect. Very marginal system, where a degree or two makes all the difference
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HRRR making a few people sweat tonight
