eyewall
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Everything posted by eyewall
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It is all about the deform band with this and as others said if the cold does make it in time.
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Obviously that was an awful run at 12z. There isn't much good to say about it. We will see if it trends back at all but the trough remains positively tilted and any phasing happens just too late. Story of the year I guess. Triangle folks are checking toaster prices.
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That is probably about right lol.
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I miss this terribly! I always loved the backside fluff. It's how we got to 30 inches in the Pi Day storm. Looks like a nice solid double digit snow for a lot of the region.
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Yeah the triangle did get shafted compared to what could have been with 3 chances I have it at a C- right now.
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Yeah not looking good for a makeup event anytime soon.
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Obviously this isn't looking good. It may be on to mid-month already.
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It is a bit farther south than the same feature on the GFS. Not sure what it would have done beyond that time downstream if it would still be very suppressed.
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Yeah could end up with more sleet in reality. That has happened a lot in these events.
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Yeah but gaining support slowly. The Mean has a storm now with wintry precip. We are still a good distance from the event for sure.
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The GEFS definitely showing more of signal on this run as well. The Op run has 6-8 hours of ZR for the Triangle.:
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The pattern is very close on both models, it is simply a difference of where the low tries to crank up.
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12z GFS: 12z EURO:
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12Z Euro:
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Hahah well I would be happy if I did, but it is hard to have a lot of confidence when the parent high is retreating and it is more of a hybrid to in-situ CAD situation. Of course that exact scenario still needs to be ironed out over this week in the model runs. What is interesting too is the next wave on Tuesday trying to show up as the next high builds in over Ontario/Quebec. That sounding by itself would actually indicate more of a snow scenario but I am not so sure the mid levels will be quite that cold.
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Sorry yeah I miscalculated. WB is 28F or so which is a good ice accrual temp if you can maintain that level and not warm due to the latent heat of freezing.
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Yeah that is warm. wet bulb essentially right at freezing.
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Ice storm for the US-1 corridor:
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That run was better for sure. It weakened the Great Lakes low a lot more and after the 1st high retreats a second high is able to build in a little quicker. There is another little impulse for Tuesday as that occurs.
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No I am saying it isn't looking great for this weekend's system to work out so that would take us to mid Feb in terms of chances after that. The parent high retreats quickly and the wedge won't hold nearly as long with that setup. ZR is self limiting as it is without a strong cold air feed maintaining itself.
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Yep we are into mid Feb at this point. The setup just isn't enough here.
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The problem remains the parent high is retreating as the storm hits. You won't maintain a good wedge when that happens and ZR will be self limiting. The next high doesn't build in until the system passes. This run looked even closer to in situ CAD.
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The parent high is exiting as this occurs on the GFS which means shorter duration CAD. It is more of a Hybrid CAD event as opposed to classical. It is better than In-situ though.
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I guess I am still looking for that makeup snow but at least ice does make for some good shots if there is a good amount of it.
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I am not sure why everyone excited about ice lol.
