MCD regarding frozen precip in Michigan.
Mesoscale Discussion 0047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020
Areas affected...central/southern Lower Michigan
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 120125Z - 120730Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will continue/develop across
southern and central Lower Michigan tonight. Snow may mix in as well
at times.
DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is lifting northeast
across the Midwest and Great Lakes with a surface front south of the
Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. The surface freezing line is
oriented southwest-northeast across southern Lower Michigan with a
warm nose still evident between 850-700 mb in 0000 UTC DTX and ILX
soundings. Much of the lifting is occurring above 700 mb (below 0C)
with light freezing rain/drizzle resulting across a relatively
narrow corridor across Lower Michigan. Sleet and snow will also be
possible as the warm nose erodes tonight/overnight and surface
temperatures continue to fall. Precipitation rates will likely
increase in the coming hours as stronger forcing for ascent arrives
leading to accumulating ice, sleet, and snow. Precipitation will
likely continue through 0700 UTC and decreasing from southwest to
northeast.
..Nauslar/Guyer.. 01/12/2020