Eskimo Joe

Hmmm...on the Pitt radar the lead cell near Uniontown, PA...about to sink into Garrett county...has some weak rotation on it.

First SVR of the day.

Quote

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
219 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  East central Augusta County in western Virginia...
  The eastern City of Staunton in western Virginia...
  The northeastern City of Waynesboro in western Virginia...

* Until 300 PM EDT.

* At 218 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Staunton,
  moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches 
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as 
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by 
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. 
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Staunton, Waynesboro, Crimora, Fishersville, Verona, New Hope,
  Mount Sidney, Hermitage and Fort Defiance.

Cumberland up to 88° nice.

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Pitt did a SPEC too, at noon. 

Yea that was kind paltry CAPE out there...only ~1,000j/kg.  

Just now, yoda said:

Did they do a SPEC?  

They are.

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Is that your call? All aboard the severe bus!

It depends on the 18z sounding from IAD.  Once I get a peek at that, I'll make my call.

Just now, Kmlwx said:

I'm kind of giddy about the radar at this point. It looks very very promising to the NW of the region. 

Yea, nearly every storm that has fired has been able to sustain it's updraft.  There even are some hail cores above 30kft per the Pitt radar.  20z MOD risk anyone?

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

There' some showery junk forming down near Harrisonburg and Staunton in VA. Hopefully that's not the start of popcorn stuff ruining the instability. 

They've had full sun all day so they've hit the convective temp.  Plus the terrain is aiding updrafts.  We shouldn't have to worry about that here.

Impressive hail signatures on the cells just south of Pittsburgh...warnings for half dollar to golf balls sized hail.  

Convective temp on the 12z RAOB from IAD is 88° that's the magic number...LWX I would imagine is going to have a special sounding this afternoon.

CHO and Luray already up into the mid 80s.

Really clearing out now.  Too bad this didn't happen around 9 or 10 am.  Thinking a low-end derecho is possible, we are overdue for one from a climo perspective (one every 4 years in DC).

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Good luck today. I like the setup. 

Yea I'm all in let's do this.  VA is the sweet spot IMO, but the MD side of the Potomac could get a good fringe job.

Just now, mappy said:

what'd i say earlier?  

+1 mappy

Blue Box until 9:00 pm going out now.

Wow at those wind probabilities.  Surprised they didn't go MOD.

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Front Royal is reporting 79 so the temps are rising closer in now. 

That's good to see.  You can clearly see the kicker over Ohio and far western PA.  If we can clear out effectively then perhaps we stand a better chance then I thought earlier this morning.

7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Yeah - wedge is holding very well. 60s temps all the way well into VA. We need warmth stat. 

LOL...just like that we have sun and patches of blue sky in Gaithersburg. Maybe this'll work out? I'm not terribly confident in today.

The the HRRR line of doom is to be believed, then we need some sun within the next hour and a half...we are cool and stable as all get out right now.

Tomorrow has me giddy.  It's got the best potential so far this year, IMO.  

Our HM really likes tomorrow per his Twitter account.

For those of us with several raised beds, your best friend will be drip irrigation or those slow soaker hoses.  It really makes watering a lot easier and cuts down on the water bill in the height of summer.  We have a timer that waters our tomatoes between 4am and 6am every 3rd day and it cut out water bill n half last summer.  The whole outfit cost us $65.

SPC just went D1 ENH for the VA side of the Potomac.  Looks like they already have the afternoon watch box targeted by the way they drew the 30% wind area.

My vacation is Wednesday to Friday.  Enjoy the best severe weather episode of the season during that time frame.

More TORs issued in the blue box today than the Red Box yesterday...heh.

1 minute ago, yoda said:

STW for Fauquier/Culpepper/ hail to golf ball size

Now a TOR:

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
609 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Culpeper County in northern Virginia...

* Until 630 PM EDT.

* At 609 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 7 miles northwest of Culpeper, moving southeast at 20
  mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, 
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. 
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is 
           likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Culpeper around 625 PM EDT.