Eskimo Joe

^that's a nice setup.  We are eventually going to have 4, 4' x 10' raised beds in our dream house.  

Blue Box until 3:00 UTC  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0086.html

2% TOR certainly justified again today based off the setup.  Shame this isn't about 100 miles east.  

Meso:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2018/md0398.html

That was a decent event.  The folks who typically get shafted seemed to have gotten something and there are some respectable hail reports for this region.

Federal Hill section of Baltimore City:

Fantastic light show from the Baltimore City cell...continuous CG.  

Constant low rumbling thunder here in Reisterstown....looks like a possible supercell for Baltimore City.  VIL over 70 and tops approaching 60kft.  Severe Thunderstorm Watch just expanded for Calvert, Charles and St. Mary's.

Pikesville is probably getting rocked...tower shooting up over 55kft on the latest scan and the hail core got bigger.

Couple of decent hail cores near the I-695/I-795 split and the I-83/I-695 split.  

Tons of thunder here in Reisterstown...looks like a big tower firing to my south.  Pretty gusty winds coming up from Baltimore City ~40 mph.

That line is holding together as it edges out of PA...mappy probably has the best shot out of all of us.  

Quote

 Mesoscale Discussion 0396
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0616 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

   Areas affected...Middle Atlantic

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 85...

   Valid 122316Z - 130015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 85 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread southeast across ww85 over the
   next several hours. Hail/wind are the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...Remnant MCV from early-morning convection over northern
   IN has moved east-southeast into central PA where it appears to be
   partly responsible for aiding renewed thunderstorm development. Over
   the last 1-2 hours a corridor of upward-evolving convection has
   organized across southern PA and this activity is
   spreading/developing east-southeast across central portions of ww85.
   Radar/observational data suggests this activity is generating
   outflow that is surging well ahead of the convection but new
   thunderstorms may ultimately develop near the outflow/synoptic front
   intersection in the vicinity of Baltimore. Primary tornado threat
   will be with any supercells that evolve across eastern MD, utilizing
   aforementioned boundary where low-level helicity is maximized.
   Otherwise, hail/wind are the primary threats.

   ..Darrow.. 05/12/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Cell in HoCo (along the MoCo line) must be trying - I have a small hail indicator on it. 

Looks like some kind of outflow boundary along I-70 in the past couple of frame from LWX radar.  Might explain all the pre-line junk firing.

Just now, yoda said:

Not sure why my image looks like that... it's off the SPC site that deals with soundings

I have to save them as .PNG to load correctly on this site.  The convective temp on the 21z sounding was 92° so we're close but might not be enough for a full bore event.  Still, those cells coming out of Adams and York counties have top pushing 55,000 feet now so there's definitely potential for damaging wind with them.

Appears to be some rotation on the big cell just north of Shrewsbury. 

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Some tiny cells going up in Southern Carroll and extreme northern HoCo. From looking at them on GR2Analyst - they look capped....struggling to get very high

The convective temp on the 12z IAD RAOB was 94 degrees so the cap may not have been completely broken.

Nice tongue of CAPE and helicity across the boundary for the severe t'storm and tornado watches.  Kinda psyched.

Tornado Watch is certainly justified.  I'm a bit concerned things are going linear too quickly though for an organized tornado threat.

I'm liking the boundary of the low level stratus for any TOR risk.  South of there should be the biggest wind threat.  Should be one of the better severe weather days in these parts.

Early morning visible shows some clouds but mostly some low level fog and stratus which should burn off.  I'm good with this.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front will lift northward into Pennsylvania by Saturday
afternoon. This places the region solely in the warm sector, 
allowing for temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to low/mid 
90s with dew points rising into the 60s. This will promote the 
development of 1000-2000 J/KG of MLCAPE, with shear values 
increasing markedly as winds at 700 mb approach 50 knots. 
Forecast soundings indicate that for the vast majority of the 
day the region will remain capped. Thus, convective evolution 
will be dependent on convection that will likely already be 
ongoing across OH/PA that may move into the region from the 
northwest on westerly flow and a southward moving frontal 
boundary. While its uncertain how far south the convection can 
progress, the atmosphere will be primed for a severe weather 
threat, provided the cap can be broken. The main threat will be 
damaging winds, with a secondary threat of large hail. The 
highest risk of severe thunderstorms will be across eastern WV 
and northern/central Maryland. The Storm Prediction Center has 
placed this region in an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms,
with a Slight Risk south to near the Washington DC metropolitan
area. The threat window will be late afternoon and through the 
evening hours.

The frontal boundary will sink further southward Saturday night,
and will be bisecting the region by Sunday morning.
Southwesterly flow will continue south of the boundary, with 
northeasterly flow taking over across the cool side. Thus the
combination of ongoing convection, frontogentical forcing, 
increasing precipitable water values, and shortwaves passing 
through the flow aloft, will promote continued areas of
showers and elevated convection. The severe threat will be
dwindling during the first half of the night, however attention
will then turn to the possibility of heavy rain and a low risk
of flooding across the higher terrain of eastern WV and western
VA due to repeated convection and upslope west flow. Lows
Saturday night will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Sunday will be highly dependent on the eventual frontal
position, but have shown the boundary between Charlottesville
and Dulles, with stable/cooler low levels northeast of this, and
very warm and humid air southwest. Forecast soundings and
Showalter Indices indicate the potential of elevated convection
across all areas, but there is the potential for additional 
strong to locally severe thunderstorms in the warm sector. Will 
continue to have to monitor potential for heavy rain as well. 
Highs will range from the 60s across NE MD to potentially near 
90F towards Nelson County VA. Shower chances continue into 
Sunday night as well.