Eskimo Joe

We're the Mid Atlantic, that's what went wrong.

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Areas that have been in the clearing for the longest have warmed into the mid 60s. 

Sun peeking out in Gaithersburg...hope se get a nice line or something this evening.

Given the dense cloud cover, safe to say today will be a classic Mid Atlantic Nothingburger™ unless things clear out fast.

36 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Boring forecast, it's just 50s and 60s with a lot of rain. I want sunny weather AND 60s. is that too much to ask for in this non-winter?

Yes 

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Different timing too - though some might argue the timing was even worse for that one. Wasn't it during the morning rush? I remember I was stuck in it driving to work around 7:45 that morning. I guess timing doesn't really mean crap in these low CAPE cold season events. 

Correct, it was between 8am - 10am.  That event is a great reminder that if you get the dyanmics/instability right, the time of day doesn't matter.

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0131.html

Just posted to Twitter - but it's not up on SPC quite yet. 

We had a 5% pity meso last time, but the low was about 7mb stronger and we were in Larko's Triangle.  

Just now, Kmlwx said:

The latest HRRR looks a bit better. Nothing significant but just a more solid line and a bit more on the gusty wind side of things. The weenie in me also sees a tiny bit of that light green shade on the UH maps. 

$20 says we see a quick temp spike pre-front as the low level inversion mixes out and we get a few SVRs / damaging wind reports tonight.

2 hours ago, high risk said:

I still don't understand why SPC is now even considering an upgrade to SLGT, but there is no argument that if sfc-based parcels can find a way to be buoyant, the wind fields are amazing.   A faster evolution of the event might allow the line to take advantage of daytime warming for the western part of the outlook, so I understand the outlook expanding west.    I'm setting my goal for getting a torrential downpour and maybe hearing thunder.    Seeing several consecutive HRRR cycles wanting to break up the line as it moves east is giving me some pause, though......

I wonder if they are a bit gun shy after missing one of the largest winter tornado events in the Mid Atlantic the other week.

Just now, high risk said:

         I'm always interested in high shear low CAPE setups, but it could be a high shear NO CAPE setup.        I tend to trust the NAM nest when it keeps us cool at the sfc in these events, but if the HRRR is right, it would be a SLGT risk day for sure.

Yea, it's always a battle of the wedge.  I've noticed that when you get a maturing/mature storm with decent low level jet moving into us it's easier to clear out the low levels.  When you have to wait on the jet to strengthen over us then it's sketchy.  I would imagine it might not be as hard to scour out the low level cold air this time because we have no snow cover and the ground isn't frozen up.

10 hours ago, high risk said:

So we're in to the range of the NAM nest now, and it has been emphatic for several consecutive cycles now that a strongly forced convective line will move through the area early Wednesday evening.      But it's also been emphatic that the line will not be surface-based, and most of the guidance I've seen agrees with that, so the chances of taking advantage of the excellent shear profiles seems low.     That said, the GFS is trying harder to find a tiny bit of sac-based instability, so I won't totally close the door, even though I'm really hesitant to consider the GFS it wants to scour out the low-level cold air.    

Classic early season "high shear low CAPE environment"

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

It looks really nice. I wish CIPS Analogs ran on the Euro...would be interested to see what that spit out. 132 hours away isn't even that far...

We're long overdue for a big, multi-modal spring/summer severe season.

HR132 on today's 12Z Euro OP at 500mb is

Ready for full spring.  Can we just flip to the 80s already?

36 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This is the upgraded National Blend of Models product, right? 

I do not know.

/thread

Congrats VA tidewater?

Just now, WeatherShak said:

List of winters that ended with a bang in March. Posted by regional NWS today.


“Our winter has been nearly snow-free, but March can pull a fast one on us. In DC, March was the snowiest month of the winter in 1888, 1890, 1891, 1896, 1914, 1923, 1924, 1932, 1937, 1938, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1950, 1953, 1960, 1969, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2018.”


.

This year is especially favorable for a March maximum.  Even a generic 3" - 5" event would top the winter for just about all the climo spots in the LWX CWA.

10 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Sun angle season is definitely here. 

Daffodils almost blooming and my roses are starting to leaf out 

24 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Why did NWS set the default radar view when you click the radar on the website to be composite? It's misleading IMO. It used to default to base reflectivity. 

There was a secret meeting in the bunker under the Jefferson Memorial last week between NWS and FEMA where it was decided to make the change.  They would've gotten away with it too if it wasn't for the meddlin' weather weenies. /s

9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Peach trees will be in trouble again this year as well.

Between the late spring freezes and incessant summer rains, Maryland has come close to qualifying for a Federal disaster for crop loss several times since 2016.