Eskimo Joe

What does the hi-res guidance look like for the rest of the day?

3 missing from the floods last night.

I'm liking this setup.  GFS is usually bone dry...if it gets wet watch out.

16 minutes ago, yoda said:

Probably going to see FFW's for most of the LWX CWA issued tomorrow morning IMO

Agreed.

Someone's gonna jackpot in the rainfall category with a setup like this.

Quote

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Concern for heavy rain and flooding this weekend continues to grow. 

Blocking over the northwest Atlantic will help to create a cutoff 
upper low on Saturday, which will slide south across our area 
through the day. A surface low will begin to strengthen, in 
association with the aforementioned upper low, and move from 
northwest to southeast across the region along a stalled front 
draped across the region. This will be the driver for showers and 
thunderstorms throughout the day on Saturday. Precipitable water 
values will remain abnormally high throughout the day on Saturday, 
with values reaching 1.75-2 inches. This, coupled with weak steering 
flow and deep warm cloud layers, will provide a heightened risk for 
slow-moving convection across the area. With the ground already 
saturated in many areas due to recent heavy rains, the flood threat 
is even higher. 

The potential exists for an area of moderate to heavy stratiform 
rain to develop Saturday night into early Sunday morning as the 
surface low strengthens and begins to drift offshore. However, due 
to uncertainty in the exact track at this time, it is uncertain if 
or where this might set up. Showers will then linger into Sunday as 
well, keeping temperatures much cooler, with highs only in the low 
to middle 70's. 

Model consensus suggest that the low pressure system/front and 
attendant heavy rainfall risk should exit to the south and east by 
early next week as high pressure noses in from southeastern Canada 
and the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures should return to average 
by mid-week. 

WPC puts us in the slight risk for flash flooding Thurs & Fri

I'm not "in", just intrigued.  I agree with @yoda that severe is incredibly conditional, but whenever we get these kinds of setups you can get sneaky wet microbursts or even a lone spinny.

Slowly getting interested in the flooding and conditional severe potential for the Thursday - Saturday timeframe.  SE flow + lift + remnant tropical system = intriguing.

17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yeah, not too many places on earth where 10 - 12 inches of rain in 3 hours is not going to cause big problems.  This is another case of environmental alarm-ism.  Not a fan of urban development, but to use that as the cause of the flooding and imply it a man-made disaster is ridiculous.

The question that needs to be asked is how can EC, FDK, et al continue to rack up huge rain totals while I've yet to have a single-storm get me more than .7" this year.  That is the issue that needs to be addressed.

Agreed on the rainfall number, but the tenacity of the event is magnified by human decisions and the terrain.  10" - 12" on Delmarva is just a pond...not a raging torrent.  There are certain businesses that will probably have to be torn down this time.  

28 minutes ago, mappy said:

Any pool people here? We are with out a working pool. When we opened, we decided to drain the pool this year, and have water brought in (we are on a well, and our water is pretty contaminated by runoff due to salting operations during the winter). In doing so we found a lot of plaster damage. I don't think the pool has been resurfaced since it was installed (1990s), so I assume it's pretty standard wear and tear. However, for three weeks now, we have not been able to get anyone to schedule an estimate to figure out the cost of getting it repaired. We can't even get calls back. I know its a busy time for pool companies, but jesus. 

Figured I'd ask to see if anyone here has experience with pools/plaster/resurfacing work. 

I have an above ground and found Van Dorn in Reisterstown to be very helpful.  Might be worth a call:  410-526-9990

3 hours ago, smokeybandit said:

Man, the guy was trying to rescue someone's cat.  I bet that cat owner feels awful

Nope.  It was a woman, not her cat.

300 water rescues were performed yesterday in Maryland.

1 minute ago, smokeybandit said:

The lone missing person in Ellicott CIty is still missing.  I fear that's a recovery mission now, not a rescue one

National Guard person who was off duty but waded into the water to check a car and see if someone was inside.  He was swept down into the river.

Rainfall numbers.  

15 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Can they do what was done in Downtown Frederick? Along with the Carroll Creek Linear Park there are underground flood tunnels. Now yes Downtown still has flooding, remember just back a week and a half ago. But it was not to the extent of the bad flooding that had previously happened. Other areas had bad flooding, north end of town. But where the the flood tunnels are it fared quite well. 

That can certainly be done, it's a well known mitigation process.  The challenge is that Ellicott City is "historic" and any construction will have to be done within the historic confines.  Additionally, a project of this magnitude would take a few years.  Had flood mitigation work started after the 2016 flood, it most likely would not have been done by now.  

6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Definitely a rare event but how are we still in the middle of it? It's over.

Still need to wait for runoff to stop.

That first picture...wow

WBAL reporting that one person was washed into the Patapsco River during the second "wave" of the rain.

LWX was money through this event...they did an excellent job.

Swift water rescue ongoing US 29 in Howard County 

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Yeah the amount of people on social media saying "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE TO PREVENT THIS" is kind of surprising to me. Do people not know how powerful water is? The topography and layout of Ellicott City is conducive to tragic flooding like this. 

If you for example create barriers somewhere (assuming they hold and are effective) - you probably cause a flood someplace else next time. 

Was just in a tweet thread with a person who keeps insisting that "we shouldn't have to just accept it and deal with it - something needs to be done this time" - The user kept talking about "better drainage" - yeah...not going to work with topography like that and 10 inches of rain. 

The CE talked up their improvements and left many with the impression that it would never happen again.  

https://twitter.com/GeorgeSolisWJZ/status/1000874145960398848