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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Classic emergency management paradigm. You get a disaster, there's documented shortcomings in infrastructure then nothing changes when the next event occurs. But when the next event happens, the baseline infrastructure doesn't get improved yet supports more residences, businesses, etc.
  2. Looks like the 12z guidance starting to pick up on the rainfall potential.
  3. Oh to be a fly on the wall at OKX or BOX right now. Obviously a busy couple of days ahead for all of them.
  4. GFS catching onto the idea of an expanding wind field WRT Henri. Showing more interacting with the mid latitude trough over Mid Atlantic. At the least, looks like a breezy weekend and increased surf along the DE, MD, VA beaches.
  5. NHC extends area of Hurricane Watch for Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London CT until further notice. NHC extends area of Tropical Storm Watch for Northern Fairfield until further notice.
  6. You can definitely tell the shear is relaxing on Henri. There's decent outflow across the northern semicircle of the cyclone.
  7. Looks like the 00z hurricane guidance shows no more OTS solutions. Man to be a fly on the wall at BOX or OKX right now.
  8. How much of a westward shift?
  9. A cluster of 18z EPS take Henri into central NJ...would argue that wouls give some impacts to Delmarva.
  10. Some light reading for you: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/52/10/jamc-d-12-0276.1.xml
  11. HRRR has a bit of a supercell look for a few cells across the I-64 corridor today.
  12. A worthwhile thread to read. Tomer is a maven with modeling and analysis:
  13. On tropical tidbits, am I missing something, or is the 12z Euro just shearing Henri apart by HR72 apart to nothing and kicking it well out to sea?
  14. Decent spike in lightning. Looks like the cell might be starting to interact with a bit of bay influence or possible sense the warm front that's draped across NE MD.
  15. Looks like the afternoon activity may be trying to form in the WV Panhandle. Sun's out pretty good in Gaithersburg...definitely has a deep tropical feel to it.
  16. That's the best looking cell of the day in these parts.
  17. I am consistently amazed at how we struggle to get anything interesting in these parts anymore. We just succeed at failure. Remnants come through and it just fizzles out.
  18. Latest SPC meso analysis update has a supercell composite of 8 along the I-270 corridor up into Gettysburg.
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