Eskimo Joe

Mowed the lawn...lost a good 10lbs of body weight in sweat.

Maybe this will be our year

Significant uptick in CG for storms west of Charles Town and Martinsburg. Might be the "storm of the day" trying to form there.

IAD at 95 and FDK at 97. Probably pre-frontal winds and touch of downsloping aiding in the spike.

Would argue that given the meso disco out, even though it's only 40% watch probability, that we get upgraded to a slight risk with the afternoon update.

Something to add to your knowledge base:

I ran a history of all Excessive Heat Advisories through the iembot. I don't have the time to view the results, but here's a KML file you can pop into Google maps/earth to see what the density is: sbw_interval.kml

06z GFS is a weak system into the SE US.

Tomorrow could be sneaky good. We've been baking for 2 days and there's an actual front pressing down.

No kicker, we lose.

102 at DMW at 5:30 pm...wow. FWIW, it's 99 at New Windsor 6 miles down the road in the shade so I think that's a legit reading.

IAD hits new record high of 100.

CBE hit 99...FDK, HGR, and DMW hit 100 today. Really over performing heat today!

95/73/106 in Gaithersburg

46 tomatoes and 3 zucchini harvested yesterday. What a haul this year after a slow start in the garden.

They're already in NE Maryland.

37 storm related calls in just the Bethesda area. 56 total across down county.

60% chance of a WW this afternoon.

There we go:

Given the amount of DCAPE and strong sunshine today, I'm surprise we aren't in a DY1 slight risk. There's another kicker working through the region this afternoon and it might yield similar results to yesterday.

He says a lot of things.

If there's good DCAPE and a kicker we seem to jackpot here. It almost can compensate for the lack of shear and mid level lapse rates.

I think we can stick a fork in TD six...between the mountains and that upper level low in Florida, it looks like a turd.

FWIW, it appears that Raven Rock aka Site R now has an ASOS. Station ID: KXIF

ASCAT data, though showing a sharp cutoff and increasing organization, doesn't show much in the way TS-force wind barbs over a significant area. There isn't much of a threat of storm force impacts at moment of genesis unless the winds increase here. They are likely just being patient as they have more liberty/luxury to do so versus say a situation like Elsa earlier this season that immediately had TS force upon genesis. That being said, we may still yet see PTC advisories go up by 5 AST. Good copy, thanks.