AlexD1990

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn’t exaggerating when I said this was the best cold enso pattern since 1996. It will take some luck to cash in to that same level again, but the potential is there. 

From your lips....

Just now, psuhoffman said:

24/7 

while we wait make sure you check out the porn in the long range thread. 

X rated for just about everyone. 2010 vibes 

Lol next weekend! Shades of 2010

Just now, Lowershoresadness said:

welp almost game time fellas. I think I'm gonna mix heavy in the bury which will cut me down. you peeps mid shore are looking great 

I think you still have a shot of 6+. We just got raised to 8-12", which is insane.

19 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Cape Henlopen School district closed tomorrow 

On their first day back LOL. I would be stunned if they go back before. Thursday.

Thank you very much for your thoughts! No matter what, biggest storm since 2022 for us. Looking forward to tomorrow!!

Thank you! You're feeling like the Salisbury area is the jackpot?

Cs, apologies for the IMBY question, but would you be willing to post a estimate for Sussex County/midshore Delmarva? Always love hearing your thoughts, and am curious how much the mixing will affect us.

It would be nice to have more model agreement, especially for the Salisbury area. Still should be a warning criteria for everyone, which is nice. Early indication is the next storm might be a more typical rainer for some of us...

Still looks good, except for the nam. I think even those that mix see at least 3" if not much more. Visiting family in Cecil county and racing the storm home tomorrow night, because I think my home in Sussex County, DE will get more than they will, LOL 

I wouldn't worry too much unless you're south of Salisbury. Everyone looks to have the best snowfall since 2022, even if there is mixing. Fun times ahead!

Still looks like we would get a few inches before mix/rain. pretty typical for a large storm around here. But lets see how models play out. confluence may end up being stronger. 

It's exciting to be tracking again, and to have a window bigger than a week.

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One of the worst thunderstorms we've had down here. Lightning like 4th of July

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The late January one that started the crazy stretch was pretty cold. 

With a last minute north trend. Looked like a RIC special from 2 days out.

2/5/5 for this afternoon... MRGL up

Never trust a warm front. Someone in here said that once and it's never failed yet. New Years Eve spinnys for the win lol

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My 35th birthday is the 9th, so I would love a massive snowstorm to distract me from imminent middle age lol. Been tracking since 2002/2003! What a run

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43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No that ridge along the Inside Passage up through Yukon helps drag polar air down.

Thank you!

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a KU look.  

I'm not an expert AT ALL, bust isn't the ridge axis too far west? I thought we wanted it around ID, not off the coast of OR?

I've had 10 warning criteria winter storms the last 8 years, and I am at 60 ft elevation on the central eastern shore. 'Our luck' hasn't been that bad.

This. Obviously it's location dependent, but I'm very much in a "chips fall" mode.

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Has winter long range ever looked this bad in mid December?

It doesn't even look that bad? Where are people getting this from lol

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Definitely interesting to be seeing a colder pattern setting up, with the possibility of it turning stormier after the 1st; especially when you consider a lot of long range stuff was leaning towards a lousy winter.

Silly, but I always feel bad for the birds stuck in the eye. poor things..

21 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If this exact same look leading into winter was happening during a less hostile pacific and Atlantic cycle I’d be way more optimistic. But one been doing some work on incorporating the long term cycles to other more common analog metrics and it seems applying this method retroactively would have made my forecasts much more accurate. The same factors don’t lead to the same results when supplanted into different cycles.  I’m not optimistic that the same set of factors that lead to 2014 would have nearly the same impact now given we were in a generally favorable pdo then and we are in about the worst possible now. 
 

That said I don’t expect a total dud either. I think we have enough in our favor (I do agree that the signs indicate a more poleward pac ridge) that we should get some snow. I expect more of a just typical crap v omg this is god awful crap. Something like 2018 and 2022 maybe. 

In the new normal, I would take that and run(of course, that's location dependent, I'm sure.)

We can get colder air in a Nina than a Nino. Those big storms in Jan of 17 and 18 were cold powder right on the coast. Jan 22 was a cold month with 3 snowstorms for a good chunk of our region. Beaches did best overall- 17, 18, and 22 all featured 12"+snowtorms for the immediate coast of the MA, with 2 being blizzards. Bit of a short term Nina trend there.

I feel like 95 to the coast has better winters in a La Nina realm. My gut says 95 to Cambridge is the jack zone this season. 

Relative to averages I agree. PSU land will still get more snow than the beaches, despite being largely missed by those storms. Maybe 2022 was close. There were places in lower DE that were right around 25" for that winter.

I feel pretty good about our chances of getting at least one good storm in a Nina pattern. Some of the best storms in my recent memory(all the big beach snows you guys mentioned) were in Nina's. Always amusing, because in the lead up to those storms, the board is usually relatively quiet because "they aren't getting any snow" and it's usually just the Delmarva and So. MD peeps even talking about it. Always a special feeling when we get the jackpot, because let's be honest, it's pretty rare in the overall scheme of things.

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