raindancewx

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 30SEP2020 20.1-0.5 23.8-1.1 25.6-1.1 27.9-0.7 07OCT2020 19.5-1.2 23.4-1.5 25.5-1.2 27.8-0.8 14OCT2020 19.6-1.2 23.6-1.3 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.9 21OCT2020 19.9-1.1 23.8-1.2 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.8 28OCT2020 20.0-1.1 23.5-1.5 24.9-1.7 27.9-0.7 Nino 4 and 1.2 warmed a bit this week. Big drop in Nino 3 and 3.4 though. The current La Nina is now stronger/colder in Nino 3.4 than 2007 at this point, but warmer elsewhere. I was expecting Nino 3.4 to come in around 25.55C since the monthly data usually runs above the weekly data, but it looks lower than that now. This week the data is about half way between 1995 and 2007 in the eastern zones, but now much stronger/colder than 1995 in Nino 3.4. The slow cooling in Nino 4 is a feature of both years. Nino 4 was already dropping below 27.0C in 2010 and a lot of older La Ninas by this point (November). 31OCT2007 19.7-1.5 23.2-1.8 25.2-1.5 27.8-0.8 25OCT1995 20.3-0.7 24.0-0.9 25.6-1.1 27.9-0.8 Pretty healthy La Nina in Nino 3.4 though - will likely be in "strong" territory in Nov-Dec before weakening.

Cold ENSOs with ongoing MJO waves around phase 7 on 11/1: 2017 - started but died, i.e. lower magnitude 2016 - a week late for phase 7 2000 - pretty close to the Euro outlook by timing intensity (phase 2 by 11/15 like in 2000) 1996 - 10 days late for phase 7, and higher magnitude That's really it since 1975. As a blend, it's pretty close to what the Canadian showed for November. My unweighted winter analog blend was pretty close in October, and looks like the models for November. But of course, there is a much simpler blend to get Oct-Nov...1954:

Next storm looks to be around 11/7 or 11/8 for the SW. Good to see. Legitimately no rain or snow from 10/5 to mid-January in 2017-18 here.

Larry Cosgrove has a blend of 1952, 1959, 1970 (x2), 1978 (x2), 1995, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014 as his winter analogs. One hell of a blend. You have years with record cold / record warmth nearly everywhere, including some big snow months nearly everywhere. I actually don't think it's a terrible blend. Locally: December 1959 is incredible. So is February 2015 for snow. January 3-January 9 1971 featured multiple lows below -10 in Albuquerque, but the month still finished warm. But the week was 20 degrees below average for a huge portion of NM and CO. I think mid-Dec to mid-Jan 1979 is probably one of the coldest periods on record for the West. 1995/2005 both featured very warm/dry conditions in the West. 2009, 2013, 2014 also all featured at least brief cold in the SW at times, same for the NE actually. US wide: May 2015 is one of the wettest months on record, top five I believe. The 1970, 1978, 1995, 2007, 2009, 2013, 2014 are all know for their severity in one way or another - cold or snow - in huge portions of the East and Midwest.

Solar activity rose to 14.4 sunspots for October 2020 - highest since June 2018. The 12-month average is now above the year ending October 2009, at 4.2 sunspots/month v. 3.5 sunspots / month. That isn't a big difference, but it is 20% higher. The six months ending October 2020 were 5.8 sunspots/month, compared to 4.9 for the six months ending October 2009 too. Oceanic-heat content for October for 100-180W fell to -1.08. That's somewhat colder than October 2016 and October 2017, but not much. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Closest simple blend to match 2020 trends for Aug, Sept, Oct is 1999, 2007, 2016, 2016. Not the type of winter most of you will want if that blend holds. Would be a very warm November too. Year Aug Sept Oct 2016 -0.71 -0.71 -0.92 2016 -0.71 -0.71 -0.92 1999 -1.21 -1.27 -1.07 2007 -0.68 -1.03 -1.19 Blend -0.83 -0.93 -1.03 2020E -0.81 -0.87 -1.08

The Canadian has a very warm patch of water between Alaska and Hawaii which to me implies at least some resemblance to your 'South' North Pacific Ridge look.

The new Canadian trended the north Pacific warmer and the La Nina somewhat warmer too. Atlantic actually trended a lot colder too, with the Indian Ocean warmer.

The Euro seems to be on board with another good storm in the time frame you'd expect with the big SOI crash. It's crazy to me that the SOI is going to finish October so far under +8 when the La Nina is so healthy looking on the SST maps.

My thing with La Ninas is they aren't really Pacific driven for most of the US, outside the NW. It's much easier to figure out what will happen in a La Nina by focusing on the Atlantic. That's part of why I'm so anti-2010 as an analog. That was a very active hurricane season without any landfalling Gulf Coast hurricanes, and without anything like the late activity this year has had. To me, the pattern has three main components. 1) You have transient, but extremely powerful cold dumps into the Southwest that occur around major changes in arctic pressure patterns, likely triggered by big ENSO/MJO changes. These have differed in how they've been delivered, but the cold snaps actually have been recurring every 45 days or so for months already, despite the persistent heat. Early June, Late July, Early Sept, Late Oct all featured these cold shots in NM. 2) You have major cold dumps into the Northwest and Northern Plains that don't reach the SW or East at all. These cold dumps will likely shift West if/when the SE ridge expands in power as the La Nina peaks, and then snap back east in Spring. My analogs had a cold Spring in the east after a pretty mild winter. 3) You also have periods of intense Western heat corresponding with cold/warmth duking it out pretty evenly in the East with Arctic/NAO help fighting the Pacific. This 10/1-10/10 pattern is essentially the same pattern the CFS sees for November (it's essentially Phase 4 MJO for Nov, v. Phase 5 Oct). Broadly speaking, the big dumps of cold into the SW have occurred shortly after a period of La Nina weakening or during a period of slower strengthening. The models have the La Nina weakening a lot starting Dec/Jan...part of why I don't buy a hot winter here. I lean toward a 45-35-20% split for the three patterns: with the middle image the 45, the near average east 35, and the 20 the SW cold dump. But the middle image should shift West as the La Nina strengthens and/or a SE ridge grows potent. Locally, the hottest, driest Summers in La Nina tend to see sporadic intense cold shots in mid-Fall develop and gradually become more consistent by the winter, so everything is pretty on target for what I've been expecting.

The CFS has gone to my main winter analog for November: 2007. I would expect the CFS is too warm everywhere, but probably correct spatially for November 2020. Tropical Tidbits currently has these as the top SST matches globally: 1967, 1988, 2010, 2011, 2017. Weatherbell had a cold West look for November (1973, 1988, 2010, 2010) - will be curious to see if the warm West verifies of if they see something the models don't. I think we'll have some cold in the West in November but generally a warm month. The issue is 1973/1988/2010 are all way too cold/strong compared to where the current La Nina is, especially in Nino 4 where those years are near 27.0C, and this year is still near 28.0C.

None of the lowest sea-ice cold ENSO years (2007, 2011, 2012, 2016) that are closest to the current observations look anything like the 'North' North Pacific Ridge composite since 1990 in winter. I can't imagine the lack of sea ice not having some kind of effect on placement of highs/lows in the North Pacific / Arctic zones. An example of this would be 2016, when DT had expected a big trough in the East/Midwest for winter based on the QBO/ENSO progression. More generally, the seven winters themselves are all very different. Say you lived in the Northeast and believed the North North Pacific Ridge composite was right. Would you go hot or cold for the Northeast? Average? The "look" of the seven post 1990 winters don't really match this October either. 1995 is closest for October of the bunch but it could easily be warmer in the Plains/East this November. 2008 is second closest for Oct-Nov, but it had the South very cold in October, and the Plains near average, but it's probably a good match for November. 2010, the La Nina most of you in the South want, is a god awful match for October in particular, with the entire middle of the US warm, and California cold. The 2013 October was extremely cold in the entire West, which is not like this year at all, even with the recent cold shot. The 2016 October is hot in the middle of the US too. 2017 is warm outside the NW. I'm not saying the composite or these years won't work somehow, but I am skeptical given how close we are to winter with almost all of these winters behaving differently. I consider 1995 a decent analog, and 2008 is probably fine for the eastern third of the US, but I'm not a fan of the other years at all.

CPC is starting to fix the MJO site. It now has a rotation in November through phases 8-1 in early November on most models. That's somewhat similar to 2016. The CFS is starting to move the heat core in November away from Montana, and into the West/SW, which probably makes a lot of sense if we're going to spend some time in MJO phases 3-6 in November. I would think we could be back into phases 4-5-6 by Nov 20th? My forecast assumed 3-6 would be where the MJO would 'want to be' most of the cold season. Locally, Albuquerque has never finished Oct-May with above average snowfall in a year when November had a high of 61F or hotter. Long-term average is about 57.3F. So I am curious to see how warm it is in November, since we're ~45% of the way to our 1931-2019 snowfall average already. The most recent Weatherbell winter outlook uses 1973, 1988, 2010 (x2) as the November and winter blend - that's a cold West, hot East look - opposite what the CFS shows. Real curious to see what happens. It seems like a lot of the stronger La Ninas do go cold in the West in November, but the weaker ones don't typically. CPC has a pretty big cold dump into the West week two of November. The late October snow here, even though it has melted already probably cooled off the ground and made it harder to be super hot here in November. So I wouldn't be shocked if November came in a bit lower than the ~60F my analogs had here.

Another one for me. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 28 Oct 2020 1012.31 1011.65 -14.38 5.06 7.45 27 Oct 2020 1011.80 1009.45 -3.48 5.83 7.41 26 Oct 2020 1011.35 1008.90 -2.84 6.33 7.44 25 Oct 2020 1011.65 1009.80 -6.71 6.96 7.51 24 Oct 2020 1012.72 1009.65 1.16 7.74 7.60 23 Oct 2020 1013.92 1009.60 9.22 8.18 7.65

Quick update on some ideas for the winter after checking the stats here: - All years from 1931-2019 with measurable snow in Albuquerque in October (10/10) saw measurable snow in at least five months of the eight month Oct-May cold season. This is compared to only 24 out of 79 years when it doesn't snow in October. The odds of six months of measurable snow are also much higher: 3 out of 10 in years with snow in October, and 4 out of 79 without snow in October. These are both highly statistically significant differences. The city has only seen measurable snow from October-May from 1931-32 to 2019-20. - March also saw snow 10/10 times following measurable snow in October, but only 48 of 79 Marches did without snow in October. So I'm expecting snow in at least four more months of snow here in the valleys of the Southwest. That means the mountains should get hit pretty hard. The question is which four? January/February actually see somewhat lower frequency of accumulating snow than usual after it snows in October. So I lean toward November, December, March, and then one-two months of January, February and April. Western snow pack is incredible in the high terrain at the moment. I'm sure it will let up for a bit, but if the mountains get enough snow, you can create cold air that prevents the valleys from warming up much. Years with unusual snow pack well to the south in the Plains/Rockies in October will often see some snow events pretty deep into the south later in winter. The official number still isn't in yet, but I think the airport had 3.9 inches of snow. The long-term average is 9.6" for October-May, but we only average 0.1" in October. It's pretty likely that the city will finish above average for snow - that's very rare in a La Nina, but the odds are close to a coin-flip for it now. When I did my winter forecast, total precipitation came out to 0.30" for October in Albuquerque with a high of 73.2F in the raw analog blend. We're likely to finish at 73-74, with 0.22", so it's on the right track. The blend of years implied a mostly dry pattern through May, but one month in Nov-April should see 2-3x normal precipitation (around one inch). There are hints on the GFS of storms entering southern California in the long-range too, which is consistent with November evolving to a colder pattern for December in the West if I did this right.

I don't have a way to visualize it overall, but the Octobers that see unusually far South snowfall in the West and Plains are actually pretty good for one-two cold storms pretty deep into the SE, even in La Ninas. This is an example off the top of my head - but I'd still bet against a lot of snow for the coastal NE/SE outside New England.

I would expect this pattern to repeat, but with the snow extent up to 100-200 miles further south, in early December and late January. The prior big cold storm in September brought snow down to Santa Fe, this one went down to Truth or Consequences. You could probably push a good storm and cold blast down to Chihuahua in the dead of winter in this setup.

That list looks pretty legitimate to me - there were reports of 3-9" for the Eastern half of the city, but more like 6-13" for the Western half. I had 2-4, up to 8" locally. Storm came in much colder and drier than I thought - only ~0.22" / 3.9" at the airport, but probably ~0.35-0.55" in the less snow shadowed areas, at 17:1 to 25:1 ratios overall, with temperatures 17-23 overnight in the city.

November on the CFS looks a lot like November 1954 if you want a cold ENSO year to match it to. Very hot in the West all Summer & Fall, and then cold in winter. It's the cold Western composite look, ala 2007 or 1988 that Griteater has. Here is a look at some snow totals for the storm down here. A lot of the mountain communities have already had 20-30% of their annual totals with this storm and the September storm. I don't see any reason to not expect a recurrence of these types of storms occasionally through next Spring. They seem to be tied to the NAO flipping phase via changing MJO forcing. The "extremely low snow" in the Southwest idea already looks pretty wrong. We only get ~0-5% of our snow through October in the sites I'm familiar with in NM. I think Albuquerque officially had 3.9 inches - pending the official data compilation tonight. I had 7.5 inches with the storm. But it's certainly looking like a record snow event for October here.

Nino 4 should get pretty cold. I don't think it will be as cold as 2010 or even 2007, my issue has always been it would take a while. It's definitely cooling slower than 2010 or most strong La Ninas. The CFS depiction for November is almost dead on to November 1954, which turned into a cold West winter after an extended very hot Summer and Fall, kind of like 2007. I'd imagine for that era it also had very low sea ice. The late hurricane activity of 2020 is also similar to 1954. I know I've said for years now that Nino 4 is directly correlated to eastern warmth/coolness in December, but if we believe the CFS for November, other factors are over-riding that correlation. A cooler Nino 4 should lead to a colder Northern Plains. The CFS says very hot there. 2007 was a year that ignored the cold East via cold Nino 4 correlation - so if we're going to ignore the Nino 4 in November, the pattern will likely ignore it in December too. The CFS also had Montana very hot in October, which is a horrible bust, but that doesn't mean it will be wrong in November. My winter analogs had a hot West / cold East look for November, but the cold and heat would be pushed West of where they are shown on the CFS currently. The CFS will likely change some, but probably not dramatically by 10/31.

https://www.abqjournal.com/1511218/snow-cold-blast-new-mexico.html New Mexico’s ski resorts welcomed the fresh powder, said Reed Weimer, marketing manager for the Red River Ski and Summer Area. By Monday afternoon, the storm had dropped about 2 feet of snow on the resort, which is scheduled to open for the winter season on Nov. 25. Tania McCormack, marketing director at Taos Ski Valley, said a storm of this magnitude is unusual for this time of year. The resort, which had received about 20 inches from the storm by Monday afternoon, plans to open on Thanksgiving Day. “Pass sales are going really well,” McCormack said. “Especially with the snow starting to fall, we’ve seen an uptick in pass purchases. I think people are really excited to get outside and back on the mountain.”

I don't think it really means anything. I did look at the warmest Oct highs 10/1-10/25 in Albuquerque that were also Octobers with accumulating snow in Albuquerque. Not exactly a big list. These are the warmest years 10/1-10/25. 1 1950-10-25 81.1 0 2 1979-10-25 80.8 0 3 2020-10-25 80.1 0 4 1991-10-25 79.7 0 5 1952-10-25 77.9 0 6 1992-10-25 77.4 0 7 1978-10-25 77.2 0 - 1963-10-25 77.2 0 9 1954-10-25 77.1 0 10 1955-10-25 76.9 0 11 2012-10-25 76.8 0 Out of those years, I had 2012 as an analog. But 1979, 1991, 1992, 1978, 1963, 1954, and 2012 are all average to great winters here. The 1979, 1991 temperature matches above did have snow in Albuquerque in October, despite their warmth. In the predictive periods i look at for the NAO, 1979 was a strong match, and 1991 has the fun and games in late October for the NE kind of like this year.

I've got 4 inches of snow in my backyard as of 6 pm. The airport reported 0.09" as snow through 6 pm, but even with temperatures in the 20s all day, they'll probably report it as about 1" of snow, even though you'd expect ~17:1 or so as the ratio. This isn't really the main part of the storm anyway. The east wind should really die down from now on.

Nice and snowy today in the Southwest! Check out Red River, the same spot that beat their 1906-2014 record for earliest snow on record in early September (July-June basis). For those who saw my winter forecast from October 10th on the prior page, I had the dry spell that started 9/10 ending around 10/24 in Albuquerque based on the dry spells at the same time in the analog package. Not bad. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 30SEP2020 20.1-0.5 23.8-1.1 25.6-1.1 27.9-0.7 07OCT2020 19.5-1.2 23.4-1.5 25.5-1.2 27.8-0.8 14OCT2020 19.6-1.2 23.6-1.3 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.9 21OCT2020 19.9-1.1 23.8-1.2 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.8 03OCT2007 18.3-2.3 23.2-1.7 25.4-1.3 27.9-0.7 10OCT2007 18.8-1.9 23.3-1.6 24.9-1.8 27.7-1.0 17OCT2007 18.6-2.2 23.5-1.4 25.3-1.4 27.9-0.7 24OCT2007 19.2-1.8 23.5-1.4 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.8 Still looks like 2007 to me. Around two weeks behind though.

This is pretty ballsy from the local NWS. I went 2-4", with up to 8" if the snow developed earlier in the day than expected (instead of rain). But it's also pretty windy which tends to limit snow accumulations here. Still in the high 40s after 11 pm too. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1102 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... .A powerful backdoor cold front and deepening storm to the west will combine to bring snow to northern and central New Mexico through Wednesday. In addition to the snow will be brief periods of sleet and freezing rain across portions of the east central and southeast plains. In addition, record-breaking cold air with wind chills near or below zero will increase hazardous travel conditions. Snow will linger through Wednesday across the east as precipitation wraps-around the storm system. NMZ203-204-206-207-211-216>219-221-261100- /O.CON.KABQ.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-201028T1200Z/ Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands- West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-Jemez Mountains- Upper Rio Grande Valley-Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- 1102 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches except for higher amounts along mountain peaks. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Far Northwest Highlands, Northwest Highlands, West Central Mountains and West Central Highlands. * WHEN...Until 6 AM MDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel on Interstate 40 from the Bernalillo and Cibola County line to Fort Wingate and other highways over western New Mexico will be impacted. Near record cold temperatures will exacerbate the hazardous travel conditions. For the latest New Mexico road conditions call 511 or visit nmroads.com. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for New Mexico can be obtained by calling 5 1 1, 1-800-432-4269, or visiting nmroads.com.