raindancewx

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 08SEP2021 20.8 0.1 24.7-0.2 26.6-0.1 28.4-0.3 15SEP2021 20.7 0.0 24.7-0.2 26.4-0.3 28.1-0.5 22SEP2021 21.2 0.5 24.7-0.2 26.4-0.2 28.1-0.5 29SEP2021 21.2 0.5 24.9-0.1 26.3-0.4 28.0-0.6 06OCT2021 21.0 0.2 24.7-0.3 26.1-0.6 28.0-0.7 13OCT2021 20.7-0.2 24.4-0.7 26.0-0.8 28.1-0.5 20OCT2021 20.3-0.7 24.2-0.8 25.9-0.8 28.1-0.6 09SEP2020 19.9-0.8 24.0-0.9 26.1-0.6 28.3-0.3 16SEP2020 20.1-0.6 24.1-0.8 26.1-0.6 28.2-0.4 23SEP2020 20.1-0.6 24.1-0.8 25.9-0.7 28.1-0.5 30SEP2020 20.0-0.8 24.4-0.6 26.0-0.7 27.9-0.7 07OCT2020 20.1-0.7 24.1-0.9 25.8-0.9 27.9-0.7 14OCT2020 20.5-0.4 24.1-0.9 25.6-1.1 27.8-0.8 21OCT2020 20.5-0.6 24.2-0.9 25.5-1.3 27.8-0.8 Solid basin wide look on the weekly data. With apologies to CPC, 25.9C is more like -0.6C for mid-October long-term (1951-2010 or even 1981-2010). To me calling last year a moderate La Nina is still bs - the event dropped below 25.5C for three months. Meaningfully below for one month. There are like 15 stronger La Ninas than that by coldest reading or by duration just since 1950. The peak last year was 25.28C in November. We're barely edging below 26.0C in Nino 3.4 in late October. https://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina34.data I'd expect this month to come in around 25.95C in Nino 3.4 shown below, v. the 25.46 in bold last October. 2020 27.15 27.12 27.76 28.18 27.66 27.39 26.99 26.26 25.89 25.46 25.28 25.44 2021 25.54 25.75 26.49 27.10 27.48 27.45 26.91 26.35 26.21 CFS currently looks a bit like a 1974/2017 blend for November. Those were my main analogs, but not the weightings I used for November. CFS still looks off to me though. Subsurface looks like it will be around -1.6 for October. It looks like it may have stopped cooling, but no reversal just yet. That's pretty cold - but 1983, 1988, 1998, 2010 are colder. When I recreate the subsurface for a three month period, you usually can only get one outcome if you match on the numbers and the trend. For Aug-Oct, you can get a cold national November match (1983 & 1984 is very close) or a very warm November match depending on what you use. Will be very curious to see how things go. My gut is 2017 blended with stronger events will produce the correct result. But cold Aug-Oct matches 1983, 1988, 2007, 2011, 2017, 2020 among others, if you filter by dropping subsurface, and similar readings. You can get wildly different national outcomes depending on how those years are blended. The SOI looks like it will be around +9 or +10 for October. That supports a look about half way between what the CFS has (mild SE, hottest SW/Plains) and what I had (mild West Coast and TX, somewhat warm elsewhere) based on Aug-Oct matches from 1931-2020. SOI does look pretty positive the next week or so - have to see if it goes well over 10.

This is probably something big for early November - crashes over 10 points are rare for a single day. This is nearly 30.

The huge rains dumping into the West shortly remind me of January 2021. The temperature profile is similar too nationally, +WPO, -NAO, but still very warm nationally outside the West. Sometimes it seems like we're still in the pattern from last year, but timing is off by 3-months. Of course if we were to continue down that road, you'd see the nuclear cold dump into the Plains in Nov or Dec. But I don't think that will happen, if for no other reason than the cold hasn't had time to build yet.

It's likely the time of year means the lows won't be as far south as last year at the same position. But the later we get into the season with the more southerly tracks, the more similar the tracks should be to the Bering Sea Rule idealized spot. The -PDO may also support a northerly track deep relative to normal, but not sure about that yet.

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 23 Oct 2021 1010.35 1010.90 -22.18 11.18 8.13 22 Oct 2021 1013.86 1010.00 6.25 11.58 8.55 21 Oct 2021 1014.88 1010.10 12.18 11.38 8.66 20 Oct 2021 1016.08 1012.15 6.70 11.41 8.73 Some fun for me coming. Been ages since we've have an almost 30 point daily SOI crash. Longer-term, the 90 day SOI is still at weak La Nina levels (+8 to +12)

This is probably the simplest way to explain why I'm not in the Modoki La Nina camp. Right now, it is much warmer than last year by Peru. Last year, the cold there shifted West. This year, the body of "less cold" should shift West. The cold below the surface should come up to the east though. In general, there is a big trend to much more -IOD conditions (warmer near Indonesia, colder east of East Africa), and the -PDO especially - 2-5C colder by the West Coast, warmer east of Japan where the warm tongue is for the -PDO.

Some interesting things happening in the background: -NAO with a +AO. That's not real common. Still think it's interesting that people think this event is going to catch up to last year at the surface. When is that going to happen? It's not early anymore. There are no big areas of purple like last year to spread out. The development is also opposite of last year, the western zones seem to be warming a bit this year, while they were cooling at this time last year. This is still a relatively basin wide event with a weakness in the middle to me (around 120W).

This month is a good example of how useless the teleconnections are in certain periods. The October temperature profile matches well to an idealized +WPO look in the Pacific, and nothing like a -NAO look in the Atlantic. My view is the WPO beats the NAO with a hammer in the Sept-Oct and also May as an indicator. We essentially have the La Nina version of the +WPO look this month.

Some of the -ENSO Novembers following a +WPO/-NAO October include years like 1960, 1998, 2005 which broadly look like November on the CFS at the moment.

I'm not a huge fan of the bucketing for periods as long as Dec-Mar. A lot of the stronger ENSO events start with one form and then migrate to another. I'm much more interested in the similar start and similar finish v. a similar average look. I liked 2007 last year because it was very cold by Peru initially and then it gradually shifted to become very cold by Nino 4 as the east warmed. If you just looked at the average of 2007-08 you would miss that transition. Nino 4 is a relevant precipitation indicator in February - it'll be interesting if it's much warmer than last year. For what it's worth, when Accuweather speaks of the "severe" January or whatever, I think they're going with the TNI tendency (Nino 1.2 v. Nino 4 for stronger warmth/cold). When the TNI is positive, the east tends to be warm in January. TNI was positive last January. The +TNI years are the Modoki La Nina / East El Nino years, while the -TNI years are the Modoki El Nino / East La Nina years. (+TNI January: 1998, 2012, 2021, -TNI January: 2010, 2014, 2018). Issue is the -TNI years are much more common in El Ninos, and so the -TNI eastern cold is really just dominated by the PDO signal when you have a -TNI with +PDO, since east La Ninas are less common than Modoki El Ninos. I think there are 10 meaningfully -TNI, cold ENSO Januaries (Jan 1968, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2002, 2013, 2014, 2018), and at least 20 in warm ENSO years since 1950, so even with a -TNI in January (which I expect), I don't buy the correlation map below. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/tni.data

La Nina or not, no meaningful fires this year out here with the relatively cold/wet Summer. I like to speak with farmers and ranchers before I do my forecasts. The state looks somewhat healthier than the drought monitor would imply for vegetation with short-term increases in soil moisture. If you've never left the East, we call this first picture "the night sky".

If you look at the forecasts for the North Pacific, the next big Kamchatka low around 10/27 is forecast to move/obliterate the recent very persistent North Pacific high placement. That would translate using the Bering Sea Rule to a big pattern change for the US around 11/13-11/17. My analogs had a big pattern flip ~11/15 when I did my winter outlook. I'm inclined to believe the the 10/27 low off Kamchatka is real, as is the following change in the North Pacific. But it's obviously speculative until we get closer.

Next time frame is 11/6-11/10 for NM/CO (10/20, +17-21 days) with the low today SE of Kamchatka. This one is way south of the other one, likely better for NM. The storm in a week by Kamchatka is shown to move that stupid North Pacific high around 10/27. That's your big mid-Nov pattern change if it verifies.

The storm shown in a week or so in the same spot as the one today south of Kamchatka is forecast on some runs to move that damned north Pacific high for a while. That's your mid-Nov pattern change via the Bering Sea Rule if it happens (10/27, +17-21 days for the pattern change). The Kamchatka storm today lines up well with my analogs which had a good snow signal locally around 11/8 (10/20, +17-21 days). Had mentioned mid-Nov for a pattern flip in my outlook from 10/11.

Jim Sullivan again for the second half of the video.

Nate Mantua sent out the new PDO value for September today. 2021 PDO Index monthly values: January -0.16 February -0.54 March -1.17 April -0.91 May -0.94 June -1.18 July -1.87 August -1.12 September -1.53 Last September was -0.7. Look familiar? Btw, most -PDO for September since 2012. Similar to 9/2011 (-1.79).

What are you talking about? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/pna.data 1988 0.03 1.37 0.38 1.12 0.61 1.31 1.60 -0.62 -0.97 0.89 0.11 0.33 1989 -1.57 -1.71 -1.56 -0.77 -0.04 -0.56 -0.59 -0.27 0.41 -1.08 -0.70 0.57 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01SEP2021 20.7-0.1 24.7-0.2 26.4-0.3 28.4-0.2 08SEP2021 20.8 0.1 24.7-0.1 26.5-0.2 28.3-0.3 15SEP2021 20.7-0.0 24.6-0.3 26.4-0.3 28.2-0.4 22SEP2021 21.1 0.4 24.7-0.2 26.5-0.2 28.2-0.5 29SEP2021 21.2 0.5 24.8-0.2 26.2-0.5 27.9-0.7 06OCT2021 20.9 0.1 24.7-0.3 26.1-0.6 27.9-0.7 13OCT2021 20.7-0.2 24.4-0.7 26.0-0.8 28.1-0.5 I'm on board with the government now - we're at 26.0C. That's cold enough for a La Nina to me. About two months later than last year though. Still running warm of last year each zone. 02SEP2020 20.1-0.6 23.9-1.0 26.0-0.7 28.3-0.4 09SEP2020 19.6-1.1 23.9-1.0 26.1-0.6 28.3-0.3 16SEP2020 20.0-0.7 24.0-0.9 26.0-0.7 28.2-0.4 23SEP2020 20.2-0.5 24.0-0.9 25.9-0.8 28.1-0.5 30SEP2020 19.9-0.8 24.3-0.6 25.9-0.8 27.9-0.7 07OCT2020 20.0-0.8 24.0-1.0 25.8-0.9 27.9-0.7 14OCT2020 20.6-0.3 24.0-1.1 25.6-1.2 27.8-0.8 Looks like the Peruvian fishermen will win again. The cooling below the surface looks like it is about to stop. Should translate to coldest readings at the surface in 2-4 weeks after the cooling stops. Then the La Nina begins a slow death. We've been following the 2011 most closely of the years when that data exists. The timing of an imminent reversal (1-3 weeks I think) is on schedule with 2011.

It's forecast to be a 999 mb low at the surface on one of the models I saw. Not too bad really. I think with the PDO so negative at the moment a lot of these "Bering Sea" translations are going to be somewhat north of where they would be normally in the West, although the jet shifts south with time. From the local NWS - Strong winds aloft rounding the base of an eastward moving upper low, currently over south central NV, will overtake our area tonight into Tuesday morning as the low continues east into CO. Breezy to windy conditions are developing across our area ahead of the upper low, as a lee side trough deepens to 999mb at the surface. My matching precipitation analogs to each month of July-June 2020-21 in Albuquerque did pretty well for the monsoon (I created a blend that was within 0.2 inches of observed precipitation each month for an entire year, and rolled it forward). Will be curious to see how that continues or breaks. Years included 1937-38 for 2020-21, so 1938 had the hurricane hit on New England, similar to this year. Have to see if I can find the image I have of that blend somewhere.

Going into this winter,one thing I looked at was anti-logs. So this is a La Nina after a La Nina. My idea was what do El Nino after El Nino winters look like, flipped? I threw out 'three year' El Ninos. This is only second year events of a two year sequence with the sign flipped. October for El Nino after El Nino years, flipped, are a strong opposite match to this year, which is what you'd expect conceptually. For winter, El Nino after El Nino flipped implies a cold NW US winter. We'll see.

One thing I looked at last year was the WPO state in La Nina Octobers and then the following winters. These are "meaningfully" positive or negative WPO years since 1950. -WPO October La Ninas: 1954, 1974, 1984, 1988, 1995, 1999. You can throw in "near-La Ninas" 1959, 1966, 1967, 1978, 1981, 1996, 2001, 2012 too. It's not a not super common look though. Last year was -1.18 in October. Whether you include the near years or not, the signature is for a cold spot in the interior West (Great Basin). I had a similar look to that, but it the cold was centered SE of where I had it, by TX rather than Utah. +WPO October La Ninas: 1950, 1955, 1956, 1964, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1983, 1998, 2000, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017. The "near-La Ninas" of 1960, 1961, 1962, 1980 too. The +WPO Octobers have the Southern and Eastern US warm and a tiny cold spot in the Northwest (Montana to WA). It's a essentially a classic -PDO signature. Assuming the WPO finishes positive this month, will be interesting to see if we go to the latter composite. That's essentially what I forecast for the winter.

October has switched to matching the "year after cold Nino 4 correlation" after Aug-Sept were complete opposite. Suspect this is due to the WPO switching phases in Sept to Oct. The green areas on top are positive correlations. So cold Nino 4 a year earlier favors cold. The blue areas are negative correlations - cold Nino 4 favors warm areas. You can see for October, the Midwest is warm as it should be via the correlation. West and South cold/mild. For November a cold / mild spot is possible in the South (similar to what I forecast) if we stay with the Nino 4 correlation + a year working. December is you guessed it: Cold in New Mexico after a cold Nino 4 December if the match holds.

Still a basin-wide "weak center" La Nina to me. What I mean by that is the coldest waters are right by Peru and also west of 160W. Center zone, 140W at the equator is a bit weaker than the edges if anything. That warmth SW of Mexico is a major hindrance for the northern part of the Nino zones to get too cold though.

This is what I have for winter. It's 60 slides, but I promise lots of pictures and charts. https://t.co/qpg8wV8Cmw?amp=1

I linked to my outlook in the other section if anyone is curious. Should be an interesting winter.

I have a chart in my winter outlook showing how close Nino 3, 3.4, 4 temperatures are to a 1967, 2001, 2011 blend in 2021 if anyone is curious. It's right near the front of it. Also went into a lot of detail at the end about how I scored analogs and what could wrong with the outlook. https://t.co/qpg8wV8Cmw?amp=1