raindancewx

*winks*

I'm expecting a break to wetness in New Mexico with some signs of a pretty wet month showing up for June. Keep in mind, it hasn't rained in Albuquerque in since 3/30, so it'd be quite a change to get this - There is a strong negative correlation between full high-terrain melt off and when the monsoon begins in earnest for timing. June 2018 was very wet here, with snowpack at Taos Powderhorn (11,000+ feet) fully melted by 5/16. Snow this year should fully melt off Taos Powderhorn on 5/29 or 5/30. Even since 2010, far more common for snow to melt off around 6/10-6/20, and good years can be close to 6/30 at that elevation. The monsoon benefits from high level heat sourcing, so it is beneficial to the process when there is more time for the high terrain to warm up. For comparison, last year had 37 inches of snow in late May. The 2018-2019 snow pack was excellent still in late May - 63 inches (5+ feet) on 5/31/2019, ahead of a very weak monsoon. Not expecting a super hot Summer down here. Also don't think the hurricane season will be too much like the recent ones. Suspect you'll see more focus on Florida than in recent years. Sea ice extent is also currently higher in the Arctic than each year from 2014-2021, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2006, 2005, 1995. That should have some effect on the Atlantic circulation patterns. Still expecting a warm December for the East unless we start to break down that warm pool by Indonesia. Would love to see a flip with super cold waters by Indonesia and the entire Pacific warm at the equator, but don't know if it will ever happen.

For what it's worth - years when Albuquerque hits 90F for the first time by May 10th in the past 90 years. Most of these years (all but 2009 and 2018, which are also cold here) are cold-ENSO. But there is what I can an evaporation constant here, the hottest/driest Summers flip to colder and/or wetter winters. July-Sept is hot. Dec-Feb is not.

Currently like a blend of 1962, 1989, 2018, exaggerated more extreme for the Summer.

Tonga has been confirmed as a VEI 6 eruption, largest of the current century. https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/impact-2022-tonga-eruption/ Cooling in the 20S/175W vicinity was pretty massive for SSTs in month one. If you do 5/10 minus 1/10, the effect is still there. It will be interesting to see what happens as those waters should migrate about. I was going to look to see if winds were predominantly blowing from the NW to SE in the area of the volcano, but not quite sure what level to look at for the Sulfur movement. Ash made it 58 km up into the atmosphere.

My research going into the 2020-21 winter showed that intense early heat waves in the SW US typically precede severe cold waves/months/or even winters down here during La Ninas. I defined intense early heat as hitting 90 or hotter in early May, when average highs locally are still in the mid-70s. We've got several chances at hitting 90 again this week, and a La Nina could easily hold through winter - might even hit 90 again for the first time on the same day as 2020 on 5/7. It's much more typical to hit 90 for the first time in late May. This is for the past 30 La Ninas over the past 90 years or so. I had lows bottom out at 40 ish with rain in September 2020 within 36 hours of hitting 96 degrees, and then snow, with lows at 19 degrees after hitting 76 within 48 hours in October when the MJO phase repeated. Close to 9 inches of snow that October at my place. Severe cold and a lot of snow in February too obviously. March was active too. The 2021-22 winter was 36, 51.4F, very near the trend line, and 2020-21 was 7, 49.6F, also very near the trend line. Actually, the two most recent winters increased the correlation quite a bit. P value is low enough for me to believe it's a pretty robust relationship locally. I guess my point is, the billion forecasts calling for a hot SW winter with a La Nina will probably be wrong given the heat coming so early this year.

Solar activity looks like it is going to finish above 55 sunspots for the July 2021-June 2022 year. That's a bit ahead of July 2010-June 2011. Pretty rapid changes the last few months on a y/y basis. We've finally reached a prolonged period where it is colder than last year in 120-170W, where the ENSO events are actually defined. Cooler conditions in Nino 3.4 in Feb-Apr is actually a pretty healthy cold signal in the South for June-Aug. You can see it's a good signal for me during the wet season too - nice strong signal. High solar is a weak cold signal here in August too. The coldest Feb-Apr in Nino 3.4 since 2011. Nino 3.4, Feb, Mar, Apr, FMA 1999 25.43 26.33 26.70 26.15 2000 25.21 26.30 26.95 26.15 1955 25.81 26.22 26.60 26.21 1976 25.49 26.46 26.88 26.28 2022 25.86 26.30 26.69 26.28 2011 25.64 26.36 27.05 26.35 1956 25.76 26.46 26.85 26.36 1968 25.68 26.33 27.10 26.37 1975 26.07 26.19 26.86 26.37 1985 26.03 26.50 26.64 26.39 2021 25.75 26.48 27.10 26.44 1967 26.11 26.50 26.74 26.45 Similar FMA Nino 3.4 (26.28C, +/-0.2C), and similar solar, low but rising: 1955, 1956, 1967, 1968, 1999, 2000, 2011. Actually a decent signal for the monsoon really, implies strong TX/Plain high pressure. Precip & Temp maps look like the correlation map above.

Here is a look at my snowfall outlook from last Fall. I wrote observed snow totals for several dozen sites on the map. Blue is above average, red below. Circled sites were within 20% of forecast. I thought there would be some spotty good snow totals in the mid-South, you can see that verified well in KY, TN, OK, and Arkansas. I rounded snow observed to the nearest inch for Oct-Apr and compared to the analog blend (1961-62, 1974-75 (x2), 2001-02, 2017-18 (x2), 2020-21) from Fall, and to the 60 year snow average for 1961-62 to 2020-21.

April 2018 & April 2022 are actually very similar for US temperature patterns spatially if you look. Gives me some home for a weak El Nino later this year. My raw analog blend for winter from last Fall actually held up pretty well in April - mostly with the double weighted 2017-18 in there. CFS has another hot/dry month for May down here, and then I suspect the Summer won't be real hot in the Southwest. Nov-Apr here was essentially a dulled 2017-18 - very dry, generally warm, but with a major break in February-March to cold/wet. But the break in the warmth/dryness in Feb-Mar was much more intense than 2017-18. That was what I expected when I blended in years like 1974-75 and 1961-62, to enhance the wet/cold break without really diminishing the dry/warm signal in the other months. You currently have deep patches of warmth and cold below the surface - including the 6th deepest blues and reds. But the warm and cold areas are almost the exact same size at the moment.

So sick of seeing 60-100 mph wind gusts this Spring. Driving is actually a bit terrifying with the dust. But of course parts of the state in the SE haven't had rain this year.

I'm planning to score the snow portion of my outlook once April is done. Nearly all of the US should be done with snow.

The last two winters were both pretty cold in Nino 4 (DJF). Here are some relatively similar three year periods. Before I was on any of these forums I vaguely remember using 1957-58 and 1985-86 in a blend as an estimate for 2014-15, for the rapid warming of Nino 4 in 2014-15 after two colder Nino 4 years in 2013-14 and 2012-13. DJF 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23: 27.32C / 27.85C DJF 1983-84, 1984-85, 1985-86: 27.56C / 27.59C / 28.11C DJF 1955-56, 1956-57, 1957-58: 27.05C / 27.77C / 29.02C DJF 2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10: 26.97C / 27.48C / 29.41C 1985-86 (x2), 1957-58 (x2), 2009-10 is a pretty interesting blend to say the least. Nino 4 in the blend: 27.24C / 27.64C / 28.73C as the estimate for 2022-23. Personally expecting hermaphrodite ENSO conditions in the July-June year. I don't mean Neutral - I think we'll switch phases in the year, rather than simply moving half a step from Neutral in Summer to El Nino or La Nina in winter.

We've had many days this Spring in New Mexico with dew points in the -10 to -20 range. Suspect that's part of why the Spring has been particularly tornadic to date. Can't be typical to infuse dry lines with air quite that dry. I don't remember seeing dew points this low in the 10 years I've been out here.

I like dry air, but these -10 to -20 dew points (F) with constant fierce wind this April are really getting on my nerves, especially after an excellent March for snow. Any real weather down here in Spring ends up killing a lot of people anyway via the blizzard and tornado outbreaks that follow downwind too.

WPO went positive in March after a long-stretch of the negative phase. 1956, 1981, 1985 are the only -ENSO years with -WPO in Jan-Feb and then +WPO in March.

Solar activity has increased quite a bit in recent months. I annualize it to July-June. Since July, the average over 40 sunspots/month. March was over 75 sunspots for the month. If we finish at 55 sunspots for July-June, it's the first year I would consider to be "not" low-solar since 2015-16, when there were 55. Since the 1700s, annualized mean is 85 sunspots/year via SILSO, but when I run statistical tests, blocking and other features are more likely to show up below 55 sunspots annually. Albuquerque had 3.7 inches of snow in March. Historically, three inches of snow, or more, in March is a ~30% occurrence in high-solar and a ~3% occurrence in low-solar (<55 sunspots annualized). So I'm inclined to think we will finish over 55 for the year. For what it's worth, the Euro thinks a third-year La Nina is horse-shit. It's probably due to be right again at some point?

Coldest February-March here by average temperature since 1998.

We've had some Modoki La Nina looks in winter as of late, but it's been a fairly rare look in the Summer. Will be curious to see if we can retain the warmth by Peru and keep the cold to the West. Summer 1986/1998/2008/2011 is kind of the right idea for what I expect for Summer SSTs. Not a super common look in the past 40 years.

Some early criteria to look at for winter 2022-23: - High Solar - Following Two La Nina winters in a row (<26.0C in Nino 3.4 in DJF), although I did fudge this a bit to include 1997, 2013. 1951, 1956, 1968, 1972, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2012, 2013 If you split the group into +ENSO and -ENSO following two La Ninas, you get one of two options. The El Ninos - Cold ENSOs - Year-to-date locally (i.e. ~1/4 of the year), several of these years are near perfect matches to observed temperatures: 1951, 1956, 1968, 1972, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2012, 2013 ABQ Average Temperature 1/1-3/28. 40 2007-03-28 41.3 0 - 2001-03-28 41.3 0 - 1945-03-28 41.3 0 43 1998-03-28 41.2 0 44 2002-03-28 41.0 0 45 1992-03-28 40.9 0 - 1974-03-28 40.9 0 - 1938-03-28 40.9 0 48 2022-03-28 40.8 1 - 2013-03-28 40.8 0 - 2008-03-28 40.8 0 - 1941-03-28 40.8 0 52 1982-03-28 40.7 0 - 1951-03-28 40.7 0 - 1940-03-28 40.7 0 55 1979-03-28 40.6 0 56 1990-03-28 40.5 0 - 1965-03-28 40.5 0 - 1961-03-28 40.5 0 59 1935-03-28 40.4 0 60 1947-03-28 40.3 0

Elevation isn't inherently a snow indicator. Santa Fe is 7,000+ feet and averages the same amount of snow as Philadelphia, roughly 23". Meanwhile, Flagstaff is about the same elevation and gets 100 inches annually.

My snowfall map has verified quite well where I am. Looks like we've topped 10 inches of snow in Albuquerque for the second year in a row. Above average both years. First time that's happened in back to back La Nina winters since 1973-74 to 1974-75. Edit: The 3.1" snow was the storm total, not today's total at the airport. Only 9.4" for Oct-Mar 2021-22, but 3.7" in March - most since 2005 here. Most of the metro got 1-5 inches of snow overnight. Big heavy wet snowflakes. We've had rain too this month, so the ground and plant life is quite happy.

When I did my forecast for winter, the idea was the first part of the winter would be like 2017-18 - hot, kind of horribly dry, before turning much colder and wetter like 1974-75. This has been the coldest Feb-Mar here in like 25 years last I checked. It's not "wet", but if that storm next week verifies we may pull out an average to slightly wet March in the city. Feb-Mar has been very good for the mountains. It's a minor miracle the high terrain by the Rio Grande headwaters is above average for snow pack given how awful December was. High solar has returned for the first time in years, and I suspect is helping already. In some spots I've tested, the correlations are about double what this map implies during March.

Wouldn't be March without pseudo-blizzard conditions in New Mexico. Should send that George guy out here. Shame so many die from our snow in Spring via the severe weather.

Most interesting part of this event for me is how cold it has been out here in both February & March. That was in the 1974-75 analog, and it's verified quite well locally. Current Feb-Mar is running coldest in town since 1998. Been a very good period for the high terrain feeding the Rio Grande. As is always the case, the cold potent storms in March-May down here end up producing substantial severe weather.

I mentioned in my outlook that all analogs had "fluky snow events in the South", particularly around I-40 west of the Appalachians. That aged pretty well. Snow is not done in the West - some major snows even down to the high terrain of southern New Mexico. But this map should mostly hold. I'll score 100 or so cities nationally when snow totals are final in May. A lot of the Mid-South showed up as at least average in my raw analogs, so was pleased to some good snows down there even though I went more conservative. Some of the raw percentages were +20% in KY/TN and other spots.