so_whats_happening

Should have saved this until tomorrow but whatever here is all of June/July and the 1st of August.

To me at least this is telling me we are slowly cooling off the WPAC with no real discernable changes in the central and EPAC with SST. Baby steps.

Yea TAO has the cool pool further west and a smidge cooler. Overall though placement of warm anomalies isn't too far off from each other. This is the second weakening of trades that has occurred over the summer last was around early June so I'm curious if we start to see the westerlies that have been stuck around 90E start to wane in any shape and develop further east toward the maritime continent (120-150E). We still keep getting random bouts of a Nino like response even with the -PDO where it is and the weak cool/ neutral SST profile.

Totally forgot DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1 +.8 +1 +.9 +.6 +.5 +1.5 +1.8 +1.6

Amazing no one likes to comment on thoughts and actually have a conversation in this thread it is either arguments or silence. i still see why raindance has essentially stopped posting.

Lol im not sure I understand this idea of his that the Caribbean can not foster a storm until it hits global mean average. Beryl came through early in the season (early July) but the next storm didn't form in the Caribbean (west) until Helene which was in the 3rd week of September. The SSTs were on fire last year but that did not dictate if the Caribbean would produce a storm. If the environment leading into the Caribbean was a little less hostile we would see a storm be able to do just as Beryl did or Helene. Remove the shear currently in place, which seems likely in the coming days, and a decent system tries to roll through it will produce. I feel like we heard this last year that ACE could not hit above average too. Edit: Why does it also have to go through the Caribbean to be an active season.

Have a feeling we may start to finally relax a bit on this -PDO pattern. Tropical storm and typhoon activity on the rise in the WPAC in fact the one ongoing system Krosa (I believe) looks to attain at least the equivalent of a cat 2-3 going over some of the warmest water anomalies east of Japan before recurving and going extra tropical creating a large wind field for this time of year as it nears the Aleutians. We will have to see if this continues because a one and done will not do the trick. I do not expect the PDO to completely flatline from this but we are starting to see signs of a shakeup in the continual ridge setup that has been around east of Japan. The cold tongue off Baja and California is also starting to neutral out if not go slightly above average as we go into August. Forcing also weakening up a bit around the Maritime continent and pushing closer to the dateline more often giving the MJO a 6-7-8 look. You can see the relaxing of +VP over the Atlantic coming up. Might even have a sneaky little system in the Atlantic to be on the lookout for as we head into August. While the pattern is not conducive right now it is also changing with time so we need to watch for any type of systems that make it to the eastern Caribbean islands in the next week.

To be fair it is not perfect but got the idea. Little rough for the mid atlantic/ ohio valley pattern

Yea it is reasonable to think we break the mode every once in awhile like we did last year. I have been meaning to see what inevitably breaks the -PDO down from past events regardless of value. What trigger atmospherically kicks it down and switches it over because as we have seen ENSO doesn't quite do the trick. Im more so excited for the break from the 70+ dew points coming up on tuesday.

If we get any potential of Typhoon action and especially recurving Typhoon action it will fail.

Lol I just saw that. Given early indications of simply just looking at configurations I don't think this is a bad take for potentially happening this winter.

Shoot the messenger or don't (please don't) but there are definitely some similarities SST wise to 2013 and 2017 to this year so far. Yes I know 2013 is not happening same ol same ol but one can still analyze the aspects of how similar they are still somehow. You could even try to throw in 2021 if the Nina can actually try to be something SST wise. This year we have just overall bumped the warmer mid latitudes compared to those years.

Yes it something very similar to this last year I believe we may have peaked a bit earlier this year than we did last year but will see how the 500mb sets up over the next few weeks to give clues. Some models want to slowly erode the 500mb high setup versus others just obliterating it (frickin GFS). We should take a run at the lowest monthly value but probably fall short depending on how quickly things level out. It has been raining quite a bit of late for that lol

Hopefully we can get some heat dome MCS events before it shifts.

I get what you are saying but locking it regionally (Midwest/ Ohio Valley) like you posted is not factual. It has been a warm summer I would actually say last summer was probably warmer than this year has been for the CONUS but we won't know until late August. Humidity/ dew point wise nothing really has been that different from prior years across the CONUS we are still hitting our low to even mid 70s consistently around here in the mid atlantic like we have over numerous years. The corn crop is still causing evapotranspiration as it has, hopefully this dies off as we move into a less HFCS type of lifestyle.

Subsurface for June and the first half of July.

Impressive a 606 in 2005

They have definitely seen this in the midwest since 2011. Specifically Iowa and Minnesota have seen this and parts of Illinois over the years.

For as strong as the SPV was last year there was very little connection at times to the TPV throughout the winter otherwise we would have progressed volume wise fairly similarly to the early 2020's.

This would have been a solid sea ice retention year the way things have progressed so far but we are starting at such a low point unfortunately you will continue to be well below normal even in the best of times. I think if the pattern holds we should escape some of the lowest values recorded but not a good situation continues to get worse. Look at where we are volume wise compared to the last few years, which have shown some of the lowest values outside of 2007/12

It really has been interesting to follow more closely over the last 5 years how things have progressed. Im not ready to say the ITCZ is further north permanently or to be so going forward due to the warmer subtropics, as we had discussed about last season. It is noticeable of a change in overall TC behavior and numbers have changed a lot over the basins over the last half century or more. Colorado State keeps a pretty solid track of key things over each basin. https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northwestpacific The bolded has pretty been the most notable change we have seen associated with the changing of climate. I would like to make a similar timeframe for ENSO and PDO to each basin to see how years were effected more so than others.

Just hope we can keep it going.

Training thunderstorms getting us good at home (Lancaster) second above average month so far but still down about 5" on the year. @Stormchaserchuck1

July DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA + 1.5 +1.6 +2.1 +1.8 +0.8 +0.4 +.2 +.9 +2 May change a little later but Ill make a note if it does. Edit: Only raised up SEA

No worries here is the other site I used for the in comparison years. https://solen.info/solar/index.html Im sure I have more elsewhere in my bookmarks but there are a lot of saved bookmarks to go through lol