so_whats_happening

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it's good to try and discuss the impacts....so I don't mind these discussions. I've seen a lot of over-attribution in the last 15 years to specific patterns that then change and we stop hearing about them for a while and we move onto the next attribution study. CC is related to all this in some form, but untangling it from natural variation is hard when it comes to specific pattern regimes....and this is doubly true when we are discussing 8 year chunks. That's a terribly small sample to make a lot of longer term conclusions from.

We know what the longer term trend is, but trying to "Adjust" our projections of temperature changes or pattern changes based on very short timescales has it's major drawbacks.

 

I know the longterm trend for ORH temperatures in DJFM is 0.4F per decade....but if we use only the trend since 2008, then it's at 2F (!!) per decade. So that's the end of the debate, right? We can assume it's going to be 2F per decade over the next 20 years or so? Nope, if we did the exact same exercise from 1985-2000, the trend was also 2F per decade....but then the next 15 years was actually a negative trend of -1.1F per decade. In the mean, the positive trends will outweigh the negative trends, but from an empirical standpoint, there is no evidence that they just continue unabated. I'm certainly open to some "tipping point" that has permanently given us a Philadelphia winter climate, but I would obviously treat such claims with extreme skepticism and they should be until evidence is way stronger.

Fair points all around

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was about to analyze the polar domain, but you saved me the trouble. Again, not arguing identical patterns would be warmer now, nor that those would have some impact on the H5 pattern, but that was not the primary issue last year. Did it cost us a few to perhaps several inches in a season with a real dearth of well-timed polar airmasses in the source region of se Canada? Probably.

The polar domain having higher heights means less cold is able to stay up north and be produced versus 1955/56 so in that sense cold air would have spilled through much of the lower latitudes you can see the difference in the amount of cold air. Think this really could have played a major role as there was no issue with precip across the area and many times down this way we were right on the edge of getting snow just ended up too warm. So it is very possible we could have had similar results had the overall atmosphere and polar domain not been warmer.

Again wish I had an SST reanalysis for 55/56. +WPO versus -WPO winter also played a significant role long sustained jet versus a wavier jet.

There also seems to be some counter balance situation between northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere that is interesting to note, probably on a decadal scale of sorts.

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually not a terrible match over North America, though the PNA trough is deeper in 2022-23 and the NAO block is in a much better spot in '55-56 for northeast snow (west based near Hudson Bay and Baffin).

55/56 gave us in the mid atlantic around 28" of snow that winter 22-23 gave us 0.9" both solidly negative PDO signals and both in a moderate La Nina pattern. I unfortunately don't have SST reanalysis for 55/56.

By far the biggest difference was the Pacific 55/56 could have a similar ish look had we not had a +WPO pattern this past year. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, you will definitely reach that threshold the lower in latitude and elevation a given locale is.

Going solely off the idea of 1955/56 being a moderate/strong La Nina and having a -PDO of near -3 to last year having a moderate La Nina and a -PDO of about -2.5

20 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea coming from an area that is highly variable in general this is the snow graph from Millersville just SW of me from 1926 to what looks like 2021 (unfortunately 2022 and 2023 not on their but 15.0" and 0.9" respectively).

Average is about 27.4" according to the month to month break down, feel this has gone up a bit from about 24-25" but would have to double check. We are not immune to really bad winters around here but the frequency of not having snow or having alot of snow has definitely changed a bit seems to be a one or the other situation around here.

So going off this we had a deeply negative PDO in the 50's

1950/51: around -2 to -3 over the summer (Neutral ENSO) ~7" of snow

1951/52: was a bit more relaxed but still averaged around -1 and dipped to -2 in winter. (El Nino) ~27" of snow

1955/56: deeply negative again (-2 to -3) at the levels experienced in 1950/51 (moderate to strong La Nina) ~28" of snow

1956/57: again around -1 to -2 (Neutral ENSO)  ~18" of snow

1958/59: neutral to +PDO (strong El Nino) ~8" of snow

1960's were full of snow except for 1967/68 that had ~18"  which was a neutral year (cool PDO didn't average much below -1, with a spike in july august to around -1.5 area)

Early 60's had a -PDO regime that relaxed through much of the mid to late 60's and we had some high snowfall years. Early 70s came back with a -PDO period as well then relaxed.

So strong Nino and +PDO don't go well around here, neutral ENSO and -PDO do not go well around here, La Nina and -PDO are ehh around here. So with the enhancement of the warmer Atlantic it probably nudged us over to lower snow totals during a -PDO/ La Nina pattern there was already a ridge pattern in the east due to the -PNA but it is now enhanced due to warmer waters off the coast creating a stronger ridge profile not necessarily a deeper -PDO profile.

PDO data: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

I only state this as being a Mid Atlantic resident.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

A 7° warmer Gulf Stream is probably playing  a role in tandem with more frequent and stronger MJO 4-6 activity with the record WPAC warm pool.

 

 

True, I mean the whole W Atlantic has just been insanely warm for years now. The Labrador current is non existent right now too. Wonder what it will take to flip the +AMO pattern?

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Thanks. I was expecting 0.5, so tracking a bit behind

This is probably one of the larger differences we have seen in a warm phase. Definitely gives an idea of just how impactful this El Nino may end up.

Just now, bluewave said:

It used to be better especially further to the south of our area when there was more of a PV near the East Coast rather than a SE Ridge. 

Ocean temps probably helping in conjunction with the more frequent 4-6 MJO, top it off with a -PDO period and boy is it going to look rough. Hope we can get tropics to still actively take out the warmth along the east coast through the end of October maybe it gives us a fighting chance at something different.

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Was there a september update of MEI? Want to see how the JA value compares with 0.3 in JJ. 

0.4 for July/ August

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am trying not to envision anything like last winter. My point is that every winter since the 15-16 super El Niño reset has had some element of the WPAC warm pool La Niña flavor. So no mater what the ENSO does, we have had a record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row. While I have gotten used to that, it isn’t easy going nearly snowless like last winter. So we need just enough -AO -NAO blocking on the Atlantic side and enough +PNA or -EPO blocking on the Pacific side to have one or a few KU events. Just way too many elements in the mix these days to say with confidence what version of winter is going to show up ahead of time.

There have been no winters with a moderate amount of snow at ISP on Long Island since the late 90s. Every winter since then has been all or nothing with the snowfall. Either at least one record breaking KU event and above normal snowfall or next to nothing and well below normal snowfall. The median snowfall winter which was the mainstay from the 60s to 90s has been nowhere to be found. So how you issue a snowfall forecast in the fall and know with confidence which type of season is going to show has been very tough to do. In the old days, you could go with a median snowfall forecast winter and have a reasonable  chance of being correct.

Yea coming from an area that is highly variable in general this is the snow graph from Millersville just SW of me from 1926 to what looks like 2021 (unfortunately 2022 and 2023 not on their but 15.0" and 0.9" respectively).

Average is about 27.4" according to the month to month break down, feel this has gone up a bit from about 24-25" but would have to double check. We are not immune to really bad winters around here but the frequency of not having snow or having alot of snow has definitely changed a bit seems to be a one or the other situation around here.

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Data retrieval has gotten significantly worse in the past 2 years. Pretty frustrating since it should be easier considering the raw concentration daily data is available on NSIDC. It's just nobody is putting into numeric form anymore.

It has been extremely hard to find data of recent for many things not just sea ice. I do not like it. The temps are holding rather steadily above average across the Arctic so it will definitely be a slow start this year. The Russian land temps are finally cooling down enough that it should help with starting the refreeze season soon but we may have seen our lowest for the year and just a very slow start as we head to October.

CPC site finally updated still holding on to quite a bit of subsurface warmth out in the way western Pacific, if that has not gone away it still does mean that another KW is on the table. When is clearly the question at hand but not anytime soon I suppose. Still nothing showing up with even a minor WWB to the of the month. Luckily the trades are not nearly as strong as last year but strong enough to put a lid on things for now.

Edit: I do not know why CPC gif always stop but it is what it is at this point. Here is the site if folks don't have it. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, feel free to borrow some precip, but I want it back by mid December.

Lol well be careful with that because once it starts it may not shut off down here.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can have some of mine.

Lol im good when we have had rains it has been quite prolific and caused flash flooding. Just want a nice synoptic style rainfall to ease some of the worries around here.

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

OHC per this graph dropping back some more to <+1.2:

There is an expansion of cool anomalies and a weakening of the thermocline. Looks to be moving back to August location for anomalies? One thing that does look locked in is the anomalies in the west 3.4/4 region those are not moving however the eastern areas... to be continued.

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I agree with you. Look at the projected pattern the end of this month, this looks like a classic La Niña to some people?? With a juiced STJ screaming across the CONUS??? Here: https://x.com/empirewx/status/1701940678731645183?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

It is not a screaming STJ lol it is there but not a crazy STJ let the seasonal pattern sink in. Things are not going to flip on a dime. I however do not like the troughing trying to sneak back into the west coast on models. Let's see how it shakes out.

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

This makes me think that we may have more variability this winter than any set canonical pattern. 

This may not be a bad thing, as the biggest snowstorms happen during pattern changes (-nao to +nao for example)

Worth noting that most of the MA is already at climo or above in rainfall just from that 4-6 day period of heavy rain and storms in the last week.

While it is nice to finally be catching up on some rainfall we still have a ways to go unfortunately. It has been quite the dry water year.

I hate to say it but something tropical will have to push us close to average. The period from April- June was insanely dry around here July was at or above average across most of the area and each month since has been close to but just below average.

Updated TAO subsurface, again wish I had decided to save dates before this but was way too busy with work.

Now I know these don't always happen as planned but just by looking at this there is not an expected WWB event in the near future even trying to pop up. Also notice the nice uptick in trades across the maritime and Indian ocean.

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I thought this was cool to see, since we don't have September yet did June through August. Here is 2021, 2022, and 2023. Notice the +VP anomaly in the EPAC. I went back to 2010 when we had similar in magnitude to current PDO state in summer to see if it was indeed a -PDO thing. Definitely is not a -PDO thing as the +VP were throughout the entire Central Pacific during that time. Surprisingly the years that had this were 1972, 1976,1977 (this one was odd to see as we had already had a warm ENSO event the year before)... years coming off a multi year La Nina into a warm ENSO state. Ill post them in another post with this quoted then.

 

I tried other dates as well around multi year La Ninas expecting to go into Warm ENSO regardless of strength. Found 1951, 1957, and 1986 had a similar look. 2001 was similar as well but did not go into Warm ENSO until 2002 and 2009 did not have this look as well. So quite all over the board as far as what the Nino looked like.

I thought this was cool to see, since we don't have September yet did June through August. Here is 2021, 2022, and 2023. Notice the +VP anomaly in the EPAC. I went back to 2010 when we had similar in magnitude to current PDO state in summer to see if it was indeed a -PDO thing. Definitely is not a -PDO thing as the +VP were throughout the entire Central Pacific during that time. Surprisingly the years that had this were 1972, 1976,1977 (this one was odd to see as we had already had a warm ENSO event the year before)... years coming off a multi year La Nina into a warm ENSO state. Ill post them in another post with this quoted then.

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I think that can be partly explained by very cold ssts SW of CA/Baja from the record -pdo of last winter, and on the Atlantic side record sst warmth in the gulf and carribean. 

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I kinda walk that comment back though, looking at quiet it is in the gulf and carribean. Activity further east and north into the Atlantic is… odd. 
 

(source: CWG)

And for all the talk of the EQ WPAC pool interfering with this el nino, ssts there are pretty close to normal…

Maybe for the PDO comment but Hilary still made a decent run and Jova as well, of course they didn't last too long after hitting the cooler than normal region but that is about as typical as it gets. If we look at just the top Nino years 2015 and 1997 saw a large amount of activity. This was due to the atmospheric state allowing tropical activity to go nuts, 2009 and 1972 two years with neutral to -PDO state still managed decent activity 20/ 14 storms respectively. The atmospheric state (-VP) was a little less conducive in 1972 than the other 3 years mentioned hence the lower tropical storm count the -VP anomaly was around 150W averaged over June through Sept and shut off rather abruptly along Central American pacific coastal waters. The other years had -VP over much of the central and eastern PAC with 2009 having a much stronger west lean out of all the years. 

The anomaly maps are all over the place honestly, it really depends on which one you use. CRW is probably the warmest overall while CDAS tends to be the coolest overall. I have not checked to see what OISST and this UKMO one are like and what baselines they use (it usually falls to what baseline they use that causes the sometimes large changes in anomaly placement) so I guess in that sense use which one you want? Preferably just like we do with most other things is to average things out which probably gets us much closer to ERSST estimates.

As for the quietness in the GOM and Caribbean that is expected in an El Nino not the two storms that formed last month in the northern Caribbean, that is quite unusual. In fact any tropical activity avoided the Caribbean in 1997 and 2015, not so much in 1972 and 2009 even 1982 had 0 activity in the Caribbean. I certainly hope we are done after the N storm forms but if models continue to show us looping back to 3 or through 2-3 before the end of the month expect another round of tropical activity to occur toward the end of the month early October.

What i find rather crazy still is the lack of an EPAC season. Had a similar occurrence to last year where it started decent then just stopped. Typically in el nino EPAC is firing on all cylinders right now. Should be getting to R or S storms by mid to late september. Atlantic should be barely crossing the I storm maybe at most to the L storm in an el nino. The storms should be recurving out to sea like margot yet we have had several sneak through and cause issues close to home. We had two storms form in the north Caribbean which is very unusual in an el nino. 

Again all this is just a sign that something is not coupling right with the el nino. We have the warm waters just not everything aligning right. If we legit end the EPAC with Jova i would be very surprised but nothing in the pipeline for the next two weeks atleast showing up.

I mean even the SOI may make a run at positive levels with the amount of high pressure showing up in the south pacific. In a few days we will have hit mid september leaving us 1.5 months away at most from typical peak time for OHC and Nino peak (which tends to happen just a little earlier). If we are lucky we see one more KW come through but that keeps getting pushed back in time and the effects would be in October at this point if one occurs, meaningfully.

This is looking more and more like the june into early july level off/cool down period. Maybe we see a stark change come October but time is definitely running out.

Definitely getting the core much more stable than it has been. See if we can get convection surrounding the eye and we may start the process of strengthening.

Here is the latest 24 hour microwave, looks like it finally dropped the old eyewall and can start on a new one.