so_whats_happening

Here is the latest TAO/Triton from mid October to the most recent. Not much changed in the beginning portion of October from 1st-15th area but look was overall similar to what it looked like on the 15th. You can see the shifting of the warm pool under western 3.4 and 4 starting to shift eastward and connect with the thermocline dropping down further east. Not much change in overall surface temps in the east thus far and if we are to it will be in the next two weeks with a push of warmer waters. This will be the push to 2C that I mentioned before, how long it stays there is very dependent on what happens with wind forecasts. It looks like mid November to mid December may be the 2C timeframe after that it may be more just about sustaining those anomalies than rapidly deepening but will have to wait and see.

Of note the WPAC subsurface is gaining some steam too so this very well could be the last push of this Nino for more warming episodes but again will have to wait and see for the full reaction of this KW. Forcing still looks to hold up around the dateline with some spottiness in the far EPAC.

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This could be explained by the drastic shift down in ice volume around that time. Just a thought of course.

@Terpeast

So I went and just did a quick june-august look in the northern hemisphere. I mean it kind of does speak for itself in the 15 years leading to 2007 and 15 years after 2007. No real rhyme or reason to the dates. I'm sure if we did it into 5-10 year bins we would see the changes occur.

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, food for thought. 

If it were ONLY due to CC, wouldn’t we have seen more summer -NAOs at the same time when we started seeing less -NAO nino winters around 1978-1980 instead of not manifesting until 2007? 

Hard to separate existing atlantic variability out from CC when it comes to the NAO, but I think it’s just part of it. The warm/rising AMO up-cycle has been going on 40 years now, and I think that has something to do with it. 

This could be explained by the drastic shift down in ice volume around that time. Just a thought of course.

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs showing early signs of warming at 10mb over and north and nw of Japan.

We need the Atlantic/European side to cooperate too don't want a large scale wave 1 displacement when something does take hold.

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

There's no way Lancaster only had 13" in 2013-14.....that must be from the 2012-13 season.

Yea my bad went into the monthly break down and saw the 14" listed there thinking it was 13-14. Went back and edit the mistake was year off on both those references.

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Wow. You got treated like BWI usually does.

Yea 21/22 (i believe this was more se this year than s, jersey shore delaware folks) was also another year where they got hit quite a bit. Rough being nearly 60 miles straight shot and getting half the snowfall.

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Great post with 1 correction.  BWI had around 39" of snow in 13/14. I assume you were referring to it when you said "little or snow across the area..."

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, maybe it was different in PA. DCA had 32” and IAD 53” in 13-14

I was referencing lancaster area we had 13" that year.

13 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Anyway back to ENSO with October probably coming in around 1.6 for the monthly we should have an ASO reading of around 1.5.

Now looking back at all the El Nino years from this point on to their peak where we saw large increases in 3.4:

1957-58: saw .5 increase from ASO reading to DJF peak (1.8)

1972-73: saw .5 increase from ASO to OND/DJF peak (2.1)

1982-83: saw a .6 increase from ASO to OND/DJF/JFM peak (2.2)

1987-88: saw a .5 increase from ASO to NDJ/DJF peak (1.2)

1991-92: saw a 1.1 increase from ASO to DJF peak (1.7)

1994-95: saw .5 increase from ASO to NDJ peak (1.1)

2009-10: saw .9 increase from ASO to NDJ peak (1.6)

All other years had below .5 increase from ASO to their respective peak values most falling in the .3 increase between the two timeframes.

Using only the strong and super years since we are relatively close to both in this current setting. All had a warm December, again not big surprise (not super warm but warm). January was cold south warm north, active track across the country. February turned rather cold for most in the east and offered a fantastic storm track setup. Now this is basing off the idea of strong/ super Ninos that experienced increased warming past their ASO numbers greater or equal to .5 increase.

 

If we did the same thing and used years where from ASO to peak (typically peak was OND averaged out) was less than .5 increase for all strong/super ninos we get a slightly different look. Lets see what happens coming up here as far as increases go in the next two months since there is a lag, a later peak may be more beneficial than we think.

Anyway back to ENSO with October probably coming in around 1.6 for the monthly we should have an ASO reading of around 1.5.

Now looking back at all the El Nino years from this point on to their peak where we saw large increases in 3.4:

1957-58: saw .5 increase from ASO reading to DJF peak (1.8)

1972-73: saw .5 increase from ASO to OND/DJF peak (2.1)

1982-83: saw a .6 increase from ASO to OND/DJF/JFM peak (2.2)

1987-88: saw a .5 increase from ASO to NDJ/DJF peak (1.2)

1991-92: saw a 1.1 increase from ASO to DJF peak (1.7)

1994-95: saw .5 increase from ASO to NDJ peak (1.1)

2009-10: saw .9 increase from ASO to NDJ peak (1.6)

All other years had below .5 increase from ASO to their respective peak values most falling in the .3 increase between the two timeframes.

Using only the strong and super years since we are relatively close to both in this current setting. All had a warm December, again not big surprise (not super warm but warm). January was cold south warm north, active track across the country. February turned rather cold for most in the east and offered a fantastic storm track setup. Now this is basing off the idea of strong/ super Ninos that experienced increased warming past their ASO numbers greater or equal to .5 increase.

15 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Surprised the 1950s had plenty of -NAO and yet the winters were awful. As if it were the flip side of 2013-14 and 14-15

Yea weird stuff ignoring ENSO state looking at 1953-54 +AO/NAO led to a warm winter while 1957-58 was -AO/NAO period led to really cold conditions in the east, something we would typically expect. 1953/54 had average snows while 1957/58 had close to double the season snowfall. Missed western ridging during both those years, when it did show up it was rather mundane.

While checking out 13-14 and 14-15 both had extensive west coast/BC ridging even with -NAO/AO in 13-14 and +NAO/AO in 14-15 both winters probably the coldest we have seen in quite some time. 2013/14 had double the snow across the area while 2014/15 had a normal seasonal total. This was definitely a weird time opposite of what we would typically expect snowfall wise.

2009/10 had some deep -NAO/AO times but very little in the way of west coast ridging except for some around Alaska. This was our snowiest winter recorded.

I feel we had a discussion about this not too long ago. -NAO helps funnel cold, doesn't create it just allows it to have more impact in the east, if the cold is there, -NAO also slows storm track if we can get the typical 50/50 to develop too (we didn't see that last winter). Western ridging knocks the cold into the US this can be seemingly changed up by a very positive EPO as shown in 1957/58 creating a pseudo ridge warming pattern in the BC region even without an actual full ridge pattern.

In all of this we can just see snowfall is wayyy too variable of a thing versus saying the winter can be colder or warmer based off these years. As for precip anomalies that probably more so depends on the ENSO/PDO state at hand. 

Edit: gotta fix my 13/14 and 14/15 mistake. -NAO/AO produces big for our area if they both are working in tandem. +AO/+NAO is a lot more variable. -AO is the key more than -NAO for a cold winter while -NAO allows better snow potential given a -AO.

4 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

In reality, a person can't predict the nao/ao unless within 2 weeks out with any real accuracy. 

We could honestly sit there and say that about a lot of things in weather. There are things though that do allow forecasters the ability to foresee some of these events. So while actual values (severity) will differ one can see a pattern leading up to -AO/-NAO regime or +AO/+NAO regime just like we can see in advance poleward fluxes that may induce sudden stratospheric warming episodes. It isn't perfect but it can clue folks in on what may be to come given these circumstances evolving. Just like we have had nearly 150 page discussion on ENSO state.

I believe many years ago it was postulated that a warmer Arctic would more often than not induce a -AO regime definitely has not been the case though. We seem to have periods where +AO is more likely (string of rather +AO years) than -AO but to determine much outside of that would be rather tough.

I do wish folks would use parameters as guidance and not certainties just like I hope one day people use guidance (computer models) as well guidance, but here nor there.

9 minutes ago, griteater said:

This is correct regarding more ozone with a weak PV...."The position and size of the polar vortex plays a vital role in the amount and distribution of total column ozone. Very low temperatures are needed to form polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Chlorine gases react on the surface of these PSCs to release chlorine into a form that can easily destroy ozone."

Look no further than the disaster that was the winter of 2019-2020

Source for strat data: NASA Ozone Watch: 2023 Arctic MERRA-2 Wind

 

 

Personally hope the troposphere remains detached from the SPV like we have seen off and on over the years. When it connects on either end it really connects so fingers crossed we don't develop a +AO this year early on.

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Im honestly unsure what the effects could be as well as many others are unsure. We clearly have not had something this profound in our recorded history, so to say with certainty one thing will happen over another is a bit much. One thing that needs to be noted is water vapor helps destroy O3 in the stratosphere (may be a reason as to why the southern hemisphere ozone hole grew again?). 

It has been awhile since I did any type of diving into the stratosphere and SSW but if I remember correctly there is more O3 present during a more disturbed PV with less during a stronger PV. So one could argue since the destruction of O3 is occurring due to a large increase in WV in the stratosphere it would allow for a stronger PV. 

This was a neat read though. In it a large increase in water vapor was noted to have a more northward jet signifying the potential of a stronger PV due to this. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1631071318301184

It should also be noted that -QBO years tend to allow Rossby waves to transfer poleward more easily causing disruptions to the PV over time. So it seemingly sounds like a mix bag situation right now. Blocking highs may counter balance the negatives of increased water vapor allowing more concentrated heat fluxes to the poles this year but we are still early and discussion of this outside of December onward is guessing at best. I would wait until close to the new year to see what may come about.

I honestly hope I have the bolded correct it really has been like 5 or so years since I really dove into it. I should also mention it more so is a concentration of O3 increases with a disturbed PV versus a stronger PV which spreads out O3.

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know there’s different opinions on it but the Hunga Tonga water vapor in the stratosphere…..I honestly cannot imagine it having no effects at all this winter. No one can say for sure what they will be, but I find it extremely hard to believe that a record volcanic water vapor saturated stratosphere will have zero impact on the SPV and the state of the NAM

Im honestly unsure what the effects could be as well as many others are unsure. We clearly have not had something this profound in our recorded history, so to say with certainty one thing will happen over another is a bit much. One thing that needs to be noted is water vapor helps destroy O3 in the stratosphere (may be a reason as to why the southern hemisphere ozone hole grew again?). 

It has been awhile since I did any type of diving into the stratosphere and SSW but if I remember correctly there is more O3 present during a more disturbed PV with less during a stronger PV. So one could argue since the destruction of O3 is occurring due to a large increase in WV in the stratosphere it would allow for a stronger PV. 

This was a neat read though. In it a large increase in water vapor was noted to have a more northward jet signifying the potential of a stronger PV due to this. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1631071318301184

It should also be noted that -QBO years tend to allow Rossby waves to transfer poleward more easily causing disruptions to the PV over time. So it seemingly sounds like a mix bag situation right now. Blocking highs may counter balance the negatives of increased water vapor allowing more concentrated heat fluxes to the poles this year but we are still early and discussion of this outside of December onward is guessing at best. I would wait until close to the new year to see what may come about.

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The interesting thing is how this October is a blend of 2022 and 2021 from the Northern Pacific to North America. I guess it makes sense due to such a strong La Niña background state during recent years. Some might even call it an atmospheric lag. Aleutian ridge NW Hawaii..Aleutian low west of California..strong Canadian 500 mb ridge…weak troughing underneath…not much cold available in North America.

 

Throw in a little bit of 2015 Pacific pattern as well with the dual weak lows very similarly placed and ridging NW of Hawaii, ridging along the west coast. Big difference in the NAO domain though, I believe during that time were in the descending phase of solar which does promote a more +NAO regime if I remember folks in here pointing out.

Again never perfect but interesting to say the least. 

DCA: -.5

NYC: 0

BOS: 0

ORD: +.2

ATL: +.4

IAH: +.6

DEN: +1.2

PHX: +1.7

SEA: +.8

I mean there is a point to be made that there is some similarity to 97 atmospherically right now. Biggest difference that stands out is the higher heights on the west coast/ BC region which were the exact opposite in 1997. That will certainly be something to continue to watch as we move forward. Maybe a weaker Aleutian version of 1997 would make for an interesting year. There are some other flavors of Super Nino mixed in there from past events.

Edit: had to go and emphasize some because a few may misconstrue the idea.

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One of the main caveats with them is if the stratosphere and troposphere are coupled. The NAO and AO are forecast to remain slightly negative over the same period. So probably not much coupling going on right now. 

This seems to be an ongoing theme of late the troposphere kinda doing it's own thing from time to time and the Strat trying to couple but failing do so more often then not.

Did from mid month to the most recent plot. Looks like we finally are getting a more pronounced cooling look in the WPAC. We are shifting the anomalies located around the dateline eastward and having less of a cool pool under 3.4. Still nothing major to speak of as of yet but this does help explain the slight uptick in Upper ocean anomalies @GaWx had posted about the other day. I do not believe we will go over the last two peaks we saw but this will allow for warmer waters to spread out a bit more again giving that probable push close to 2C through November for 3.4. Still not seeing it go much above that as we move forward and I think we would need an East propagating WWB event to occur in time if something can manifest itself to push north of that 2C mark.

7 minutes ago, roardog said:

I have never really followed these forecasts from the models. How accurate are these usually? 

Fairly good, it is not recommended to go past hr 240 though. 

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

That one is different from the SAI obviously, which Judah has been pessimistic about

Because that shows anomalies not an index so yes they are different.

Im not sure what constitutes a good snowfall cover season over another but we have seen buildup decent since the beginning of October to be just below average currently. As for sea ice the Pacific side and CAA is suffering a little but the Atlantic front is surprisingly strong right now. 

https://cryospherecomputing.com/

Edit: you can see where the ridging has been most of the summer which seems to be where some of the anomalous ice deficit has shown up with the re-freeze.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The downwelling Kelvin wave back in March looked more impressive to me near the Dateline. And Nino 3.4 took until August to really respond. So this event will already be past its peak  if any significant warming is realized in 3.4 from it.

 

 

 

Here was the U total at 850 during the long late January to end of February WWB event. This also created one of these largest amplitudes of region we have seen in a very long time. The resulting subsurface and I stopped it just before the secondary smaller event took place in April. This should be able to support a +2C reading at some point (maybe mid November to mid December?) That would yield a potential trimonthly max around 1.7-1.8 when all is said and done the question comes what happens after this. Im just not sure though the longevity of such an event my guess is a month at best unless we see continual WWB activity show up through much of November but again im not seeing temp potential of 2.1-2.3 out of this. I can make a gif tomorrow of this lead up thus far from mid Oct to now.

From my quick look it tends to take about 2 weeks to get a solid reaction out of an event. Take for instance the WWB in the EPAC in early March it did not show up until the March 20 time frame on TAO.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is the EPS for 850 wind anomalies. I see some westerly anomalies in the EPAC (probably in part from the tropical activity)..but nothing screams like some sort of crazy feature that will change us to super Nino. The larger WWB is actually retrograding to 135E. If the EPS is right, some WWBs west of the dateline in Novie.

 

 

Yea I guess we are seeing what will come of a west propagating WWB, typically this goes east over time as a decent anomaly across all regions but there is a rather weak response further east than you would want to see. GFS also had that second WWB maxima about the first week of November since has weakened it most likely in response to an Equatorial Rossby wave taking shape again and spawning maybe dual cyclones again?

A push to 2C in 3.4 is not out of the realm of possibility but the ability for it sustain itself is another thing. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@CoastalWx IMO the Nino is already well coupled and we have a very clear atmospheric response. Besides the very consistent and persistent negative SOI run for a couple of months now,

Average SOI for last 90 days

-10.61

we have this…

No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening and coupling.
 

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (El Niño) now dominates global forcing.

2. Continued Walker cell coupling as the positive IOD and El Niño intensifies

3. El Niño and ++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 

4. WWBs

Cant argue the MJO or the Nino/+IOD look those are well seen at this point. Walker circulation needs some work probably in a more neutral position look overall. The first image you see when scrolling down, of course it is for DJF but the look still remains.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy

As for WWB's this is certainly no massive event. We have seen these levels and actually stronger earlier in the event. It also remains to be seen whether this was it or not for the WWB's going forward a couple days ago models were showing another potential in the first week of November but have since lost it. Let us wait another week or so to see the results of what just happened before we start saying it is off to the races or it levels off.