so_whats_happening

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

a good question is what would it take to get rid of that WPAC warm pool?

 

It seems to be taming down just very slowly. I assume you are referencing the waters off Japan. If you are talking about near the Maritime Continent yea good luck with that one.

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

That cities such as Boston, New York, and Philadelphia have seen below normal snowfall so far this winter does not necessarily mean that they will have a horrible season. Most of the seasonal snowfall during strong El Niño events falls after January 15th. For example, at New York City, approximately 75% of seasonal snowfall occurs after January 15th in such cases and 50% on or after February 1st.

For what it's worth, my seasonal snowfall guesses for select cities were as follows:

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

11.5    15.0    27.5     27.0    38.5   85.0        56.5    1.2      70.0

Wouldn't it be something if ORD and DTW pull some crazy totals coming up here. At least it seems to be setting up the colder pattern as we enter the second half of January.

Quick update there was a brief outage it looks like around christmas time but since seems ok now.

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

WPO finished at the highest value on the index in several decades for December, just above December 2006. Dec 1982 had an extremely +WPO look as well, that's one of the reasons I liked it as a main analog.

Cold dump on the models is in the right place at the right time based on the lag from an intense +WPO tendency. The high value of the WPO juices up the correlation essentially. 

Happen to have a good site to get WPO/EPO data? 

Sorry wanted to do this after I got back from the garage but had to sleep coming off work. @GaWx

Anyway I don't have a particular average for lag to the pattern most I use is about a week but it probably really depends on amplitude and speed of the wave more than I truly know unfortunately. It is not to discredit those composites as they are useful to help get some pattern recognition, but personally they aren't always correct in placement or intensity. If we take this last round of MJO movement from Phase 6 through to Phase 1 before the new year.

Dec 8-12th weak phase 6, Dec 15-18th weak phase 7, Dec 18th-22nd weak phase 8, Dec 23rd-29th over 1 wave in phase 1. Made a temp plot (surface based) to show the changes.

We don't seem to quite be hitting those marks as shown above, I know it is not perfect and maybe there is a chance the 500mb pattern responded a bit quicker to the type of progression. I tried to slow them down as much as I could so that you could see the date progression I should have labeled it but 3am stuff. I think this is an important part that needs to be recognized with the use of the composites.  It would be better to maybe compare 500mb or 200mb pattern and get a better idea of what could be versus temps specifically especially in the weaker version of the phase. I also would like to explore further into the actual lagged composites section right above it a little more and get a better explanation.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I understand the concept of a lag from the MJO (tropics) to the mid latitudes. That makes perfect sense and thus I’m not disputing it. By the way, how many days is the average lag?
 
 But this is tricky imho. Check this out, the link to the MJO/US temperature composites that I look at:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

 

From that link, here are the DJF composites, for example:

 In the “Information” section linked below that goes along with these composites, it says nothing about lag between these composite maps and the respective phase noted for each map:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/readme.shtml

 As I see it, these composites aren’t actually disputing that there is a lag. Rather, they are the after effects of a lag. For example, let’s look at phase 8. The concurrent temperatures average BN in the E US. But in reality, these BN temperatures have to have been a result of a lag from what was earlier initiated in the tropics (an earlier MJO phase) rather than from phase 8, itself. I’m educatedly guessing that this earlier phase is 7 in a large % of cases since the MJO typically rotates counterclockwise.

 Which phase in a particular case would be dependent on the number of days of the lag for it. If the lag for a particular case is, say, 5 days, we need to see where the MJO was 5 days earlier for that case. Let’s say it was in phase 7 five days earlier. Let’s say it was BN in the E US five days later. Thus it was in reality the phase 7 of five days earlier rather than phase 8, itself, that lead to the BN E US five days later, which happened to be during phase 8. So, as I see it, what resulted in the BN in the E US during phase 8 actually likely originated from what was happening earlier in the tropics during phase 7.

 So, even though these composites show concurrent E US temps during phase 7 to average AN, that AN is apparently actually a lagged effect from an earlier phase (say phase 6 in many cases). Phase 7, itself, is probably associated with a BN E US but due to lag the BN doesn’t occur til the MJO has moved into phase 8.

 So, the E US warmth during phase 4/5/6 is likely largely a lagged effect from phase 3/4/5. The E US cold during phase 8/1/2 is likely largely a lagged effect from phase 7/8/1, etc.

 The extreme cold of 12/23-7/2022, which occurred during phase 5, was likely a lagged effect of phase 4 since it was mainly in phase 4 during 12/8-22/2022.

14 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

This is not 100% accurate. There is "sometimes" a lag that's either brief or moderate & there are times that there's hardly lag at all. 

I didn't read what yall were arguing about just your statement. "Sometimes" & at differing intervals is more accurate. 

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Actually, I think I’m largely in agreement with @so_whats_happening.Wouldn’t it make sense that there always (not just sometimes) is a lag (of however many days, which would vary from case to case) between what happens in the tropics/MJO and what happens in the middle latitudes (E US temperatures for example)?

 However, my agreement doesn’t mean that I shouldn’t still use those composite maps for concurrent. I think that’s where we disagree. It is tricky.

Sorry ill get back to these later on doing this on a cellphone is not going to work out so well lol

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Not necessarily. Last winter’s coldest (near Christmas) had a similarly strong MC MJO. Also, Jan 20-31 of 1978 had similar. MJO, just like most indices, tells us what usually happens as opposed to what nearly always happens. I should add that I haven’t seen a GEFS EPO forecast. Anyone see it? I suspect that might be negative, which would be favorable.

If we can't agree yet that there is a lag between MJO phase and the effects toward mid latitude then I don't know what.

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

-The ONI for OND came in at +1.94, not quite super.

-The RONI for OND came in at +1.51, barely strong.

-Dec ERSST came in at +2.07 vs the Dec OISST of +1.99. So, ERSST continues to come in slightly warmer than OISST, which may be significant going forward as we see whether or not unrounded NDJ ONI comes in at +2.00+, which would give us a super.

-Nov ERSST was +2.02. So, to get a super for NDJ, Jan ERSST only needs to be +1.91. With the slightly cooler OISST now up at +2.10, I consider that chance to be high as of now.

Some of the more intense trades we have seen so far are coming over the next 2 weeks. Looking like a race to see how long it can sustain itself. If region 3 begins to cool rapidly coming up the chances seem to fall quite a bit. Surprised december came in a little warmer than thought.

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Canadian look for January is in finally. It has weakened the transition of the El Nino to the West, and has a much weaker, but east based look throughout Jan-Mar. By Apr-May, we are rapidly transitioning into an east based La Nina. I suspect the Spring will be a bit like 2005, but it's early.

The models have been forecasting to much warmth with this event for months, even at short ranges. So I think a faster collapse of the El Nino is possible. No reason to think we verify on the warm side of the Euro plume.

Not even sure a modoki la nina pattern can be a thing but the warm pool in the subsurface near the dateline is not fading like we typically see, especially in what are considered east based events. Wonder if we hold a nice warm pool in region 4 and western 3.4 into next winter?

It does look like region 3 is about to cliff dive coming up through january.

1 hour ago, eddygeeme said:

Hey man I had a account here a while ago. It sucks having the crew scattered from over there. The thing I'll miss is the banter and tracking every ones opinions and winter IMBY stories and tracking mods up until the bog storm. The only thing I don't like here is the sub categories you won't get that here.

Head over to weather sphere. Wxsphere.com alot of old handles from accu days over there if you are interested!

Yes thank you Roger it is appreciated. I hope to be more attentive with forecasts and not to be too conservative with anomalies this year. Hope you all have a great 2024!

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.4    +1.6     +1.7      -1.3       -.8     -1       -1.2       -1.8     -1.2

Was going to wait until tomorrow but I have a busy schedule the next few days, it shouldn't change too much at the end but we seem to be having a buoy issue again. That warmth near the dateline is just not going away.

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Possibly, yes. Then the question becomes the official ERSST, which has been running warmer than the OISST. CRW is over +2.2C FWIW….

 

Hard to know can't rely on one over another just going to have to wait and see. CRW is too erratic for my liking.

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWx Thinking tomorrow’s 3.4 weekly update is +2.1C 

The weekly would be from the 20th-27th should average around 2 again.

Dec 21: 2.04

Dec 22: 1.97

Dec 23: 1.91

Dec 24: 1.95

Dec 25: 1.98

Dec 26: 1.99

Dec 27: 2.05

The first weekly into January should feature that 2.1.

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs operational DOES split the pv after a wave 2 hit.

An insanely weak wave 2 response. We need to see this by hr 240 not 384 like we have seen posted several times.

You can see there was a chance but CWB activity on our side of the planet has been rather dismal. We have the SPV in a weakened state but still holding it's own.

53 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Is anyone familar with the science behind this MJO page?

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

 

It's showing this for El Nino, JAN, Phase 2:

 

I see some similarities to the above image with the upcoming pattern. 

 

This for El Nino, JAN Phase 3....this is the one that took me for a loop...it's not bad at all:

 

This is La Nina, JAN, Phase 3:

 

Anyone know the accuracy?

Translate it and up at the top you will see the reliability of each by color coding.

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s about to peak, probably within the next 2 weeks. That DWKW/WWB/-SOI is going to cause one final round of warming in 3.4 and 3 then it’s over. You can already see the subsurface cold starting to buildup in the WPAC

Yea i dont see how this causes anymore warming to occur. Keeping it around the same temp sure but any strengthening doesnt seem likely at this point. This month looks to end fairly close to how november was. Especially if that thermocline breaks in 1+2. We may see a rather quick cooling in the eastern portions and slow decline in western 3.4 and 4.

We seem to be having some buoy issues again on TAO so it gives a funky look to everything for the last 3 days. Minor DWKW with this last bout of weak wind burst. The extended wind forecast shows a very Nina like look over the Pacific.

Such a large difference in 1+2 readings from the several sources:

CDAS or Tropical Tidbits: ~+.6

CRW: ~+1

OISST: ~+1.6

The cooling of 1+2 has not reached region 3 yet but should continue as we move into January. Hovering around 2C for both 3.4 and 3 in most data sets, of course except CDAS data. Nino 4 sitting at about 1.5C. With not much in the pipeline showing up we probably sustain most of these for about another 3 weeks or so and of course depending on equatorial winds we may start the descent into a weakening Nino by mid January on through the rest of winter. Luckily it seems as though we won't fall off a cliff. If the OISST weekly comes in at 2C again we should end the month about 2C which should crest us about 1.9C tri monthly for NDJ, again barring no more cooling occurs.

Really hope we can get a neutral year next year instead of hoping right back into Nina status, which would be rather impressive and the only time this has occurred (not quite in the same manner as this) was in the early 70's.

Hope yall have a good holiday season, may post TAO update after Christmas then.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This WWB has trended more impressive….
 

Not really and those are VP maps which show the lifting going quickly to 1.

Found this in my bookmarks from sometime ago. Good read.

https://events.ecmwf.int/event/129/contributions/675/attachments/285/540/Stratospheric-WS-Domeisen.pdf

Im honestly unsure about this but looking at how things progressed with the early December warming I would presume at 10mb we would want it more over Eurasia versus Kamchatka/ North Pacific. I included 10mb and 50mb animations. Here was the 500mb during that time frame as well of course we don't get to see the moving parts unless we do a daily gif but you kinda get the gist.

TAO through the 19th every 2 days. 

Edit: Don't mind the hiccup around the 3rd from about the 2nd-4th there were a few buoys missing from the data.

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Wow, as @griteaterjust said, this run has by far the weakest SPV/strongest concentration of members with major SSWs of any run for Jan 2-13 with the mean dipping to a mere +3 on Jan 7th vs a climo mean of +33!! The lowest of any day prior to this run was +11 to +12:

 

It’s impossible to count but I bet there are 40+ just for 1/2-9, easily the most yet. I see ~22 that are extreme (sub -15), by a good margin the highest yet.

By far one of the stronger signals I have seen thus far. Lets see if the models are a little too aggressive at first or if this is the right idea.

Btw SOI has been rather positive over the last 2 weeks. 30 day is now above -4 and 90 day is about -8.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/