so_whats_happening

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Edit: Want to change Den --> 40" and Buf --> 78" Hope that is ok on 12/9 ~18z

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I see the urals ridging and the passing through of 4-7 in the mjo. I woukd push it toward closer to mid january but thats just me.

Rather strong warming taking place in the equatorial WPAC seems to be aiding in the idea of region 4 being near record levels.

18 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

whats the highest daily? on the monthly index highest i could find was 1.44 set on nov 2015

Unfortunately I do not have daily records but 2015 did set two weekly values of 1.7 so we are getting rather close to those levels with a large spike like that you tend to have some minor warming and leveling out afterward so wouldn't be surprised to see a weekly tie maybe beat 2015?

Edit to add a picture of the anomalies during the run up to it. It goes 1+2, 3, 3.4, and 4

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Agree with the bump, but not enough to push the mean over +2 for a month or more. 

Yea that isn't much of a concern for me as it is for others. Im more interested in making sure there is still an El Nino through the winter and we don't fall off a cliff too quickly.

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, Cfs is still unimpressed. I  mention it because it is updated daily unlike the rest of the guidance. 

It is seeing the bump in the end of December to early January from the potential WWB. Think some of the models are being a bit too quick with progression of MJO and the aforementioned WWB around the dateline but time will tell.

Also did we just set the warmest Nino 4 has been ever?

There could be a decent amount of cooling that takes place over the next two weeks before the inkling of a WWB event and as of now that is not looking nearly as strong as what we just experienced. Dare I say that last was the final big push? probably too early to know for certain just yet.

Finally seeing models tune in on the idea of a 4-5-6 low frequency pass instead of jetting it to 7-8-1. 3 should still be skipped as there are still cool waters and some subsidence present inhibiting much traction in that region for MJO enhancement.

Wasn't really much of a +AAM spike like what we saw in previous warming episodes.

Been a min but here is the latest TAO. I decided to do daily during this WWB to see how things progressed. Ill go back to every other day as we get into December.

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 As per what’s in the top image, Phase 8 has on average been the coldest in NDJ in the E US with phases 1 and 7 next coldest. As far as I know (I realize this has been debated), no lag time has to be added as this is what is experienced on average during each phase from what I understand. And to add based on my own analyses, I found that weaker amplitudes of each phase at least during El Niño averaged colder than stronger versions.
 

 With phase 6 averaging the warmest, a 6-7-8 isn’t usually all that cold in Dec because of the warm 6 unless the time spent in 6 is short enough. I’d prefer a 7-8-1. That’s why I’d rather not see it too warm in Nino 4 and want to see warmth move well east into central 3.4. Also, when Jan/Feb comes, phase 7 becomes mild and phase 2 cools off and even phase 3 cools off by Feb (see 2nd image).

NDJ

 

DJF:

Pretty sure those take every single NDJ/ DJF timeframe and don't separate the ideas of ENSO influence. Typically December is cold in La Nina and warm in El Nino. These are warm ENSO composites with an MJO amplitude larger than 1, you get a good look at the trough/ridge pattern associated with them. If we were to include all amplitudes 6 is much warmer, 7 is not as widespread but still warm in the Mid Atlantic and East and 8 is a bit cooler in the Midwest/GL.

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And if we're going to get MC forcing or 4-6 MJO, I'd rather get that now into mid-Dec, so then it circles over into 7-8-1-2 and sets us up nicely. Plus that second wind by this nino should also overpower the -PDO

I sure hope so phase 6-7-8 in a December does not look all that great especially with the little delay on phases with MJO. I am hopeful the outcomes are different but I personally wouldn't expect much as we head through December.

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, we’re probably going to see weak intrusions into 4 and 5 but as the Nino strengthens and couples further, 7-8-1-2 will be the main phases

It is possible but if we do see warming continue around the maritime region we would see a lot more of an active MJO than a null inducing one that sits in 8-1-2. So weird that everyone is down each others throats over temperatures. 

Again not a big fan of the long range on these as they change quite a bit but not a terrible call so far for the GFS. Two maps a week apart but im not liking the -VP picking up again over the maritime region.

2 hours ago, griteater said:

NOAA CPC Weekly Nino 3.4 values for November (OISST data):

Nov1: +1.8

Nov8: +1.8

Nov15: +1.9

If we estimate the weekly values for Nov22 and Nov29 to both come in at +2.1 (i.e. SSTs continue to rise this week before leveling off next week as the westerly wind anomalies subside), that would yield a November monthly of around +1.94. 

NOAA uses ERSST for the monthly number and the OISST monthly has been 0.07 lower than the ERSST monthly over the past 2 months.  So, let's go with +2.01 for November as an estimate. 

Here is how that November number compares with other El Ninos...

Yep and should give us a SON tri-monthly around 1.8 barely (1.75). Im curious to see how this holds going forward. This is finally taking on a more classic nino ending in the subsurface. Still a little wonky in comparison to other years around this time. Can not unfortunately go back before 1989, they look to be adding in to about 1977 in the near future.

Also definitely some interesting moves taking place in the TAO data.

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 More can kicking regarding the timing on when the SPV gets weaker than normal on the Euro Weeklies. Back on Nov 1st, they had this occur at the start of Dec or ~30 days out:

 Today’s run delays it the most yet as it waits til Dec 20th, which is still 30+ days out:

 

When will the can kicking stop? Is this just a mirage or is it real? Do the Euro Weeklies have a bias toward weakening the SPV too much in Dec?

We need some strong activity in the troposphere to show up before we really start to see changes in the SPV, meaning we need to see some wave producing systems to induce a weakening response. Large deep low pressure systems or some large scale blocking patterns to set up should do the trick. Again the typical timeframe to look anyway is about mid December to mid January to see any discernable activity, before that tends to be really rare situations. You can see a drastic shift occur when models finally start picking up on key signs, it can happen in like a week, although I would rather prefer the winter to already produce before an SSW as they do not always guarantee anything for us.

Definitely a nice WWB event though. The first almost full weakening of the trades we have seen thus far. TAO update the cooling in the WPAC continues look at the bite taken out of the 30C region around 160-170E. This will be the last I keep October in the mix since we are halfway through November.

13 hours ago, griteater said:

It would probably do us some good to make a subseasonal run thru 3-4-5 in late Nov into early Dec as that may get the Urals ridging activated with downstream low over NE Siberia / Bering Sea - good for Strat PV weakening (end of last GEFS run shows the configuration - 2nd image below).  Then follow that up with 8-1-2 Nino forcing later in Dec.  Would be a nice 1-2 punch.

Yep a nice pass through 3-8 is not all that horrible, short term can be rough long term could be a lot of fun. Good read on the MJO to SSW precursor as well as blocking patterns before SSW.

Connection of SSW and MJO.pdf Blocking Precursors to SSW.pdf

If we didn't already know here is another look at it. WWB activity is not up to par for this year compared to many years. You can see a spike in 1982/97/2015. 1972 was a nice spike but lacked intensity and we are under everyone of them thus far even 2002 and 2009, 1994 was also higher. When we go into a more concentrated timeframe and space the lines become more definitive and show how lackluster these have been thus far.

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

This WWB looks to be the most impressive we’ve seen all year in terms of it staying strong and continuing east of the dateline.  So, I certainly think this will lead to some warming over the next month

Unfortunately did not save an anomaly during the mid April to mid June timeframe so the best I can provide is total U wind.

2 hours ago, griteater said:

11-13 update for UKMO OSTIA is +1.57 for Nino 3.4

 

Happen to have the iod by chance?

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

When we get the peak trimonthly average, we will likely see SON or maybe OND at 1.6. 

I’m calling this a moderate nino considering other competing factors. 

If we hold onto 1.8 for another week via cpc outlook or even bump to 1.9 the average should be just under 1.7 for the trimonthly after that is a big ? The lack of any continual WWB will definitely hurt chances of reaching that super status for a weekly value going forward.

2 hours ago, griteater said:

Along with the note from @so_whats_happening, here are the phase maps for both pos and neg PDO.

 

One way to analyze the use of the PDO for this winter would be to look at all El Nino winters that occurred during a negative PDO regime (i.e. a multi-year PDO regime, which is what it looks like we will remain in this winter unless a hard flip occurs) and eliminate the winters in which a rogue -PDO winter occurred within an otherwise +PDO regime.  Here is a chart of the -PDO regimes as indicated by the black line.

 

 

Here I have it in spreadsheet form as well.  Note that I didn't give "Neg PDO" regime designation to years that hard a hard flip from Neg to Pos PDO in the Fall/Winter during a Neg PDO regime (e.g. 57-58, 69-70, 76,77) or to years that had a hard flip from Pos to Neg PDO in the Fall/winter during a Pos PDO regime (e.g. 94-95, 04-05 - not shown below)

 

Using this logic, here are all El Ninos that occurred during a -PDO regime, and with the PDO not flipping hard to positive during the Fall/Winter.  Note the Central Pacific ridge / West Coast trough.

 

Same as previous image, but this time I removed all weak and super El Ninos:

 

Same as previous image, but this time I removed the 1952 winter due to it being in the descending phase of the solar cycle:

 

And here in the final one, I removed 68-69 and 09-10 which were extreme -AO/-NAO winters:

 

Here are all years above in spreadsheet form with various parameters:

 

Bottom line: Winters occuring during El Nino, -PDO Regime. -PDO, and Solar not in descending phase show a composite pattern of a ridge in the central Pac, trough along the west coast, and split flow across the CONUS underneath west-based -NAO.  Assuming the -NAO delivers (-QBO favors it as well), it would be a promising pattern in an enclosed area from the SW states to the S Plains, to the NE, and down to the SE states.  Also, after my "ugh" post earlier about the PDO, I am so back for winter based on this analysis.  LOLLOL.

I do also enjoy your graphics what site do you use to for those DJFM maps?

I also do the exact same on a spread sheet ever since college that has been my go to setup. 

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m mostly a novice at this, but seems the -PDO numerical index is mostly driven by the very warm water off Japan, right? The SST map on our side  of the dateline looks weakly +PDO to me with slight AN SSTs along the west coast and in the GoA. 

Yes with the record waters temps over the summer and the slow fade of them across the Central and West Pacific north of 20 we still have a solid -PDO depiction even with that weakly positive look off the West coast. That weakly positive look should help with flexing of the western ridge with the El Nino state present versus constant troughing when in La Nina but we will have this battle back and forth so long as the warmth near Japan remains constant.

It is nice to see some pockets of cooler waters show up but we need it a bit more widespread to have an impact. Ultimately this could have flipped had we gotten a more robust WPAC tropical season like we typically see in an El Nino year. They would help generate these WWB patterns across the tropics then the models would have been right in there wild predictions early on. The more notable El Nino events all had total tropical activity in the 30+ storm range, I believe we are near 20 or so right now and all have developed relatively close to the Philippines region. 

Looking at hovmollers we do look to have a nice break in the trades coming up around 4/3.4 in the next week so this should allow the temps to pump up a bit but this only lasts for about 3-5 days before quickly returning to stronger trades as we  close out the month. The VP map I don't believe is something we wanna see where it retreats back to the maritime continent again.

The total winds show that the +IOD has probably already peaked and will continue to warm which is a little earlier than other typical IOD peaks but within the timeframe they normally peak so nothing too crazy.