so_whats_happening

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This huge rise in dewpoints and rainfall, are the higher temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic to blame for this?  It can't be anything else, with how our tropical season now starts earlier than it did before and how wet and humid our springs and summers have become.

 

Maybe but probably overall an expansion in its coverage compared to what it use to be. For this you would have to look at the trends along the coastline are temperatures warmer overall? With overall warmer nights (inland) than days, days seem to be warmer in winter compared to days in summer, we can see how just a bit of added moisture can change our temperature records. I would be curious if moisture content has increased in areas that normally dont experience moisture on a regular basis like the west. I know it would be counterintuitive with more heat and forest fires out west to have more moisture in the air but it would be something of interest to check out at some point. Example: areas like phoenix when heat kicks in having dewpoints in the single digits (F) well now they are in the teens or twenties.

Maybe we are seeing a switch of the AMO?

Lol you just dont read

15 hours ago, Weatherdude88 said:

 

It gets better and better .

Weenies are now posting navigational aids and saying the ice thickness looks rough (it’s not a climate tool).

Even their website states “Disclaimer: This 1/12° Global HYCOM+CICE system and web page are a demonstration and are not an operational product."

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/POLAR.html

It is well known not to use Hycom as any climate tool for sea ice thickness.

https://tos.org/oceanography/assets/docs/22-2_chassignet.pdf

Its funny to watch you get blasted with your retorts on every forum. I dont think I have seen you post anything but a chart and say this proves it right here what that point is Im still not understanding. Are you trying to prove the ice will be better this year? Are you saying from here on out things will be better for the arctic? We are still two days away from the heat just starting to enter the high arctic and with ridging over the area full sun will be out, yes with declining insolation each day but warm windy weather and sun is duo that even in our latitudes snow/ice melts out from this. Add in any moisture potential and the process really speeds up. There also seems to be a push from the american/canada region of ridging over the CAA with potential +2-4C anomalies showing up.

Im not sure how thickness is not important in your eyes . If you are changing albedo rapidly in seasons via snow and ice extent you change the atmsophere around it. The amount of heat and energy still within the system is  rather large and would take many many years of near perfect conditions to try and balance it out. Its funny its usually the ones that are grasping at straws calling other folks names, weenies, that have the least to bring to the table. lol

Seems to also be rather similar to piomass numbers average of about 1.4m.

16 hours ago, chubbs said:

Yes, correlation between the two datasets plotted is weak. In addition to problems with UAH, need to look at clouds more carefully - types, low vs high, location, etc. Also don't trust the site that prepared the chart - specializes in flawed datasets to promote climate denial.

NOAA-14 was dropped because it warms "too much" in UAH's judgement, a qualitative call. Surface records are much less uncertain than satellites because multiple stations can be inter-compared within a region to correct equipment changes or malfunctions, heat island, etc.

Understandable, i remember from college days of learning it was rather difficult to quantify exactly a precise percentage of cloudiness. Im sure it has definitely improved in the past ten years. I completely understand the whole quality control going on with instrument data, i work at BWI airport and they recently put in a new building which we think has definitely played a role in skewing our observations a bit, so as the faa figures out a better placement or way to confront this we sit gathering data which isnt always too far off but can be quite erratic at times.

20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It must vary quite a bit from region to region, I can tell you on the east coast the opposite is happening and dew points and rainfall have been on a steep increase, which has led to an explosion of vegetation and allergy levels that last nearly year round now.  Of course in the West the exact opposite has been happening

 

Absolutely the dewpoints have been just dumb over the past 5-10 years. Quite the jump for sure compared to the 90s and 2000s where yes we did get some high dewpoints at times but more often was a dryish heat from my recollection. 

Still not entirely sure yet on hycom and its authenticity with thickness but man that looks rough if this is anywhere close to reality. Multi year ice is almost non exsistent. Forecast is for the remaining kara sea ice to be dealing with temps at least 2-4C above average for about a week and a half, beyond?? The arctic also deals with about .5-1C above average for the last bit of july and into the first week of august as -AO develops and ridging becomes the main feature the beaufort and chukchi seas may manage ok with this set up I would worry also about the central Arctic taking a hit come the end of the month. 

Meanwhile greenland all but goes above freezing during this time period. Just 6 hours prior to those other timestamps we have this look just rough. Still have about another month of decent melt potential in the cards especially if a pattern like this persists the rest of the season.

9 hours ago, blizzard1024 said:

There is another global cloud satellite datasets from the from 1982-2019. The source is https://www.eumetsat.int/about-us/satellite-application-facilities-safs  This dataset like the https://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/index.html  dataset shows that as global cloud cover goes up, temperatures go down and vice versa. This suggests its global cover in part modulating the global average temperature.  But one can argue from this dataset that as we warmed dramatically from the super El Nino in 1998, cloud cover decreased to a new lower level. But it has remained steady since the early 2000s with slight warming. Clearly global cover is about 2 percent lower now than in the 1980s which equates to 2% decrease in albedo. If there was a significant positive feedback we would see temperatures taking off and we are not. 

see  

The only thing I can think of is Kyoto Protocal was enacted in 1997 but I dont believe it made strict cuts on anything just incentivized new cleaner technology paths instead of old paths.  You would think we took another step down with the 15/16 el nino if the super nino struck up something. So at a loss with why there was a 8 year long reduction in cloud cover.

Its funny you say the tears will be flowing I think many want this situation to not be unfolding as it is. Even with current conditions this seems to be about as good as we can get with a retention/recovery year given the last decade of craziness up there with how things are still evolving and yet we are still third lowest in extent. Lets not play coy on this subject that its just going to continue this way of recovery, I would be surprised if we stay above 4.5 mil in extent this year. I personally cheer and hope that we personally did not completely ruin a region of the world and the ice can somehow come back but that hope has been fading as the years go by. I worry that another el nino will do some major damage to the ice so if we do manage to have another la nina this year its almost inevitable for a nino to follow so going into fall of 2022 and the start of 2023 offers that potential.

 We have at least another month and a half of true melt while insolation is not super high right now it really doesnt seem like it would take much for the pack to come crashing, it always comes down to the weather. So here I am hoping that this year may be salvageable yet and prepare itself better for the refreeze but Ill hold until we get to about mid september. 

The rapid retreat of snow over land has been a killer for ice even in retention years. So even as we see this year being a rather ok year its struggling hard with the heat having very little barrier from land to ice. The albedo is struggling right now and that is a huge issue.

The system is trying to figure out the new balance so im curious where it lands us. We may have an idea but we may not know the end result until its happening, such a shame.

DCA: +1.8

NYC: +2.3

BOS: +2.7

ORD: +1.7

ATL: +1.1

IAH: +0.6

DEN: +3.0

PHX: +2.5

SEA: +2.4

4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Well now 108 has replaced the previous all-time record set the previous day. I am super depressed because I am under the same heat dome with the same temperature here. (Canadian all-time record fell yesterday, now 47.9 C which is 118 F, mind you it's a dry heat, dew points in the 50s).

Wow overall max temps have been very impressive to say the least! Stay safe I know many dont have ac to deal with stuff like this.

I will be super impressed by Seattle if that verifies.

On 6/11/2021 at 10:15 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh goody...so we're seeing that annoying 2-year la nina thing again?  (didn't this like...just happen a few years ago in 2016-17 and 17-18?)

Lol yea tailing off a super nino, seems fairly typical in that sense. The last time a similiarish situation occurred was back in 2007-08/ 08-09 coming off a weak nino to a multi la nina of similar intensity. So will be interesting if we fall back into or maintain la nina status with this. Not many times do we see a setup like that. It was looking good for an el nino to fire up but subsurface is fading hard. 

On 5/27/2021 at 5:05 PM, roardog said:

The melt season is starting off kind of boring this year.

Thats a good thing to hear in this day and age with the current conditions of the ice. What's interesting to watch with even the fractured mess that is the ice up there we have managed an average of last decades ice (2010s extent and sea ice area). I feel like while we have been use to seeing how the Arctic can handle large volumes of ice 4m+ thick volumes, this new norm of ~2m thick ice across the arctic is interesting to see how it goes through time. How the Arctic is trying to balance itself out while not being able to release heat properly. I worry about the looming idea of a rather strong nino to come about. Wonder if we can get the AO to work properly in peak seasons to maybe help the situation better with releasing heat and keeping it out.

Time will tell of course.

DCA 99

NYC 96

BOS 98

ORD 99

BIS 108

ATL 101

IAH 99

DEN 104

PHX 116

SEA 94

DCA:  +1.1

NYC:  +1.9

BOS:  +2.3

ORD:  +2.4

ATL:  +0.4

IAH:  0.0

DEN:  +0.7

PHX:  +1.0

SEA:  +1.4

DCA  +1.8

NYC. +1.1

BOS. +0.7

ORD. +1.2

ATL. +2.1

IAH. +1.8

DEN. +1.9

PHX  +2.3

SEA  +0.4

Wow close month this go around

Someone had posted this in another thread to give you perspective on how things have changed and will once we go to the new 30 year climo.

Little update I believe we measured the greenland high around 1065mb give or take a few mbs just south over the ocean had a slp of 1040s so seems reasonable with the potential of higher over the ice sheet. Always hard to know with a large portion of that region being 10-13k feet above sea level, so you know extrapolation. Still have quite the fram export event taking place as the low moves into the Central Arctic regions. Looks as though there may be a day or two of slowing down on export but man it looks like it picks right back up in mid to long range. Really hope this is not a sign of a major ice depletion situation.

With such strong export Ice is reaching Iceland, this happens from time to time but I dont recall it being the case this time of year. Again maybe the one nice thing is we aren't exporting some of the multi year ice that is left, what little there still is.

Very worrisome of what may come this summer.

Thats pretty crazy to me. I dont think I have seen pressures higher than maybe mid 1060's mb around Greenland so if even the 1070-1080mb range verifies this may very well be a record, unfortunately my search has come up empty on the highest pressure reading from a station on Greenland's ice sheet unless others may know.

I just noticed the map I posted of ice thickness ended at the last day of February so here is hycoms depiction of the last 30 days fairly similar to AMSR where the highest values are but there are some differences that stick out such along the CAA and siberian sea region so it will be interesting to see which is closest to reality. Still both show issues on the Atlantic front to the north pole so they both seem to agree at least on that front.

I guess the one positive, if you really wanna call it that, is the lack of multi year thick ice what is left of it isn't being exported into the Atlantic to melt off. Ill have to see if I can find a multi year ice gif to show where we have the remaining portions of it and what is rather new thin ice. 

So this is interesting. Fram Strait export picking up with such an anomalous high pressure system with a countering LP just east. Yes 1089mb high forecasted over Greenland in a little over 3 days. We have had such large high pressure systems this year, earlier around Mongolia if I remember correctly back in December I dont believe broke the record there but was awfully close.

Impressive stuff this year. I worry about the ice on the Atlantic front to near the north pole especially this year with how low thickness values are to the norm.

Edit it actually beat the world record

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/world-record-high-air-pressure-mongolia-b1780381.html

DCA: +0.8

NYC +0.5

BOS: 0

ORD: +1.8

ATL:  +1.6

IAH:  +2.1

DEN: +2.2

PHX: +2.8

SEA:  +0.8

Is there a specific reason you are showing these?

Are we switching to 1991-2020 averages and then retroactively changing past months when it comes out (whenever it fully is done being implemented) or finishing the year with our 1981-2010 baseline?

wooof competely missed that deadline lol

DCA: +3.1

NYC +2.3

BOS: +1.8

ORD: +2.6

ATL:  +3.2

IAH:  +3.4

DEN: +1.8

PHX: +2.2

SEA:  -0.5