so_whats_happening

It looks as though we have had a bit of a glitch in TAO data over the last 3 days. Keep getting fixes in the subsurface from when the data originally hits. Take for example yesterday two completely different looks from about 120W to 180. With the look resembling more along the lines of what happened on Oct 9th I may exclude the 11th from future animations unless we see a stark change occur. I had a feeling there were minor adjustments taking place from when data initially was released but this is quite the change up in the same day.

BTW the top one is the current look.

20 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Too soon to call a peak with a new KW in the subsurface, and if we stay above 1.5 through most of the remaining 2 weeks of October, we'll likely end up with a 1.5 ASO value for ONI. Where it goes after that is anyone's guess.

Either we have an early ASO peak at 1.5 (low end strong), or we have a later peak at around 1.6-1.8.

Yea I don't think at this point anyone expects it to peak in Sept, now it will be very interesting to see what happens in the next month as the subsurface warm pools are being hit quite a bit. This type of atmospheric response should produce something of note as we close out the month into November. Again not quite sure what a west propagating WWB event will produce as typically you would want an east propgating event like we saw back in August. Will this just deepen the warm pool in the WPAC again or will this push over some more anomalous waters allowing the 3/3.4 region to warm more? Honestly not to sure of what the outcome will be so it should be fun to watch the evolution.

Latest subsurface look little interesting here

Not a bad forecast and generally agree. He has showed us tidbits throughout the summer so it shouldn't come as a big surprise to folks what the final outlook was. I wanna see how the rest of this month shakes out, I don't do seasonal forecasts, but like the idea of the overall temp trends that will happen this month to being how winter goes. Warm start of the month equal to a rather warm December, to a mild and more tame temp profile mid month eqaul to January and potentially cold latter third of the month eqaul to a cold February. Precip probably a bit too variable to know for certain for me at least.

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

same. I think I went with +1.7-1.9 a few weeks ago which is proving to be too aggressive. thinking +1.5-1.7 now. almost no way we see even one trimonthly period at +2.0 at this point

I will hold my thoughts to what we have on the prediction thread. I still think we see a nice surge in monthly values to come here as there is no immediate sign of cooling taking place as we typically see in a Nino. This has been a fun one to watch regardless of outcome.

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

@roardog and others: 12Z GFS suite is another run supporting another Canadian shot deep down into the E US the last week of Oct. Thus,BN October chances for much of E US continue to increase. Euto Weeklies will be out a little later.

recurving typhoon doing its job! If I remember correctly it is about 10 days after the recurve we see the effects in the lower 48.

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Although I was never on board for super, I was thinking high end strong like 1.8-1.9, but even that seems too ambitious. 

I think the next 3-monthly ONI value will come in at either 1.4 or 1.5, so that may be the peak value for this nino, with an outside shot at 1.6 if we get a last ditch KW this month or early Nov. 

Damn I should have stuck to my calls early on of 1.4 lol we shall see what happens as we close the month though still think it has a little ummphhh with it.

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m going down with the ship I guess. I still think it goes super

No reason to feel forlorn about it. You continue to stick to your guns and I commend that. Hope we all learned a little something through all of this regardless of the end result and can use it toward future discussions.

So does anyone have a link to past CPC SST anom maps like this?

I have only been able to find an ehh look for 1997, would like to find a similar setup for past years with same chart style if possible. I found this 1997 but am unsure if it is legit (seems reasonably accurate though). I do have a 2015 one though that I got from my old comp.

What I find the most interesting portion of this is both 1997 and 2015 had that warm tongue travelling from about the dateline moving eastward in time early on in the development. You can kind of see it may have been trying this event but doesn't look to have happened in the same manner. The 1997is from January to December.

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If we do indeed get to a super event in this way, it will really be historic. It will definitely be the subject of studies and papers written for several years to come. Totally defied the “normal” progression we are accustomed to from the start

Yea I cant agree with the bolded statement. 2015, 1997, 1982, and even 1972 all featured extremely active WPAC hurricane seasons where these storms were initiated in comparison to 2023 was different but they are just as important in Nino formation as having a consistent -SOI pattern or cooling within the WPAC surface and subsurface. The things different this year in comparison to those years is the lack of WWB further East near the dateline, a consistent -SOI pattern early on in the summer, and that waters are far warmer near the maritime continent compared to those years, even the recent 2015 had cooler waters set up much earlier to help the feedback process. We still have had WWB events in the far far WPAC this year but in comparison to those years have been much farther west and less consistent in areas from 150E-150W.

We have not had consistent typhoon development this year in that region as 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972 had and that is rather telling. This I think helped really enhance the WWB formation during those years in the timeframe needed June-Sept is typically the time frame we warm the most in El Nino events. It is reasonable to assume that if we do indeed get another WWB event from consistent tropical activity out that way that there will be some increase in temp but the most likely outcome would be sustainability of the event.

This is the typhoon summary for these years.

1972: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Pacific_typhoon_season

1982: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Pacific_typhoon_season

1997: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Pacific_typhoon_season

2015: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Pacific_typhoon_season

2023: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Pacific_typhoon_season

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

August was our only decent WWB month. So that’s why we had the steep Nino 3.4 rise. The CP trade wind index for August says it all. We can see the decline in WWBs for September leading to the Nino 3.4 drop in recent weeks.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

 

 

Thanks for the link. This is a June- Sept breakdown of the super Nino years of zonal wind anomalies compared to this year. 

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

There's another weak downwelling kelvin wave moving east along 160-150W at the end of the loop.  This has been the pattern all year...the El Nino keeps getting reinforced, albeit not strongly so, in spite of a lack of robust westerly wind bursts.  The 90-day SOI is at its lowest point year to date at -11.68

There certainly is, it probably was in response to the two Typhoons one earlier in the month and the current one forming out of the ERW that took place. That certainly is one way to get it done. Same thing happened in August so if continual activity happens in this region it is very possible we get a rather noticeable response in ENSO state. Ill leave SOI stuff for another time I gotta grab some lunch.

Latest TAO subsurface I shortened it as getting nearly 20 or more images in order was rough.

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I agree with you about the SE. But even further N at BWI, there appears to be a decent chance. BWI is for Oct 1-9 down to +4.8 or 43 cumulative degrees above normal, consistent with the map you posted having BWI within +3 to +6. The latest Euro weeklies, which actually have had more tendency to be too warm rather than too cool per my memory, have BWI BN for each of Oct 9-16, Oct 16-23, and Oct 23-30. This is the first time it has a BN E US for Oct 23-30. IF this Euro run were to verify well, that 43 cumulative degree surplus could very easily be much more than erased. If these 3 weeks were to average, say, -5 (which from what I’m seeing is a reasonable possibility) that would be enough to put Oct 1-30 at a cumulative -62 degrees or an average of -2 per day, which is my threshold for a BN month.

I see where the discrepancies in numbers come from since we use absolute numbers at work (I work at the airport) for our data catalog versus decimal oriented as the NWS uses. Say the daily average is 62.5 we use 63 versus at the NWS so rounding errors enough will make it that much more skewed. At the end of the month it still is relatively similar to what shows up at the NWS month to date summary.

All I will say is it is possible but there needs to be a very consistent atmospheric pattern to induce that, unfortunately long range has been rather wonky past 5 days so I'd rather not hold my breath on something like that verifying but still possible.

20 minutes ago, roardog said:

I'm starting to think the cold eastern US October that you're hoping for is a possibility.

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 There is a partial correlation between BN E US Octobers and BN subsequent winters during El Niño. That’s one reason I’ve been rooting for a BN October (besides my preferring BN during all seasons), which as @roardogjust said is looking increasingly likely:

 

Speaking solely from a station perspective (KBWI) we are a third through the month and those first 4-5 days at the beginning did a number on our average even with the much cooler pattern we have now we are still around +9 for the month and slowly falling. We would need to average around 2-3 below average each day for the rest of the month to get us below average area fairly tall order but possible. The SE should have a really good chance of producing a below average Oct further north is gonna be tough, but possible.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The issue with WWBs coming on so late is that any oceanic kelvin wave generated would also be too late to move the El Niño much more past what we have already seen. Most fall oceanic kelvin waves that have sharp El Niño warming get generated by WWBs during late summer into September.  This year we had stronger trades and and absence of WWBs. 

I could see it more so sustaining the warmth currently around but the only years I have seen with a substantial subsurface warming this late were 1991-92, 1994-95 ( this one started in July/August timeframe),and 2009-10 during an El Nino already in progress. Sorry didn't realize I cut off the bottom labels for 94-95 but they are the same as the other two.

There seems to be a more consistent signature showing up of EPAC and eastern Central Pac winds quieting. This would go into late October and beginning of November where in November we could potentially see warming of regions take a sharper turn. Still well off in the distance and will need to be watched but the overall weakening of trades in 1+2 and eastern 3 should warrant some warming over the next week or so before we get better ideas toward the end of the month.

There have been many EPAC wind weakening events this season and very few consistent WPAC induced weakening events.

35 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The subsurface doesn't have much, if any subsurface negative anomalies now (<0). It was proved earlier in this thread that ENSO events graduate over a longer period of time than 1 year, vs the belief that they change like a magnet one year to the next. I've said before that some of the big events of the past had opposite subsurface conditions, creating a different pattern like Pacific warmth across the country. That there are little to no negative subsurface anomalies now tells me:

1) There is more general tendency for +PNA vs -PNA going forward. 

2) We are less likely to have a La Nina next year, and it could continue going neutral to ENSO positive. There is still time for negative anomalies to develop, but some of the El Nino years that flipped the following year already had negative subsurface at this time. 

The below normal subsurface areas has fluctuated all season but one thing that is definitely different is the placement of such anomalies. By mid to end of Summer we should have a much greater region of negative anomalies in the WPAC and near region 4 than we currently do in both surface and subsurface. Of course each Nino will be different in evolution but I have found only one Nino that has even remotely this type of look come September/ October and that is 2009-10. We didn't have the large cold pool like many Ninos had going into fall and got an rather vigorous KW pattern that came about in October and lasted through most of the winter with a strong subsurface. There were 2 years in the 50's that were similar in style 1951-52 and 1957-58 (this led to a multi year Nino with a strong intially to weak Nino).

The other years had some sort of strong surface cooling established by this point in the WPAC and either a developing or a subsequent subsurface cooling. Here is 1957 VP from March to Sept compared to now. 1963 is another solid match for the positive anomalies over SA with weaker over the Maritime continent (MC). Years that have very similar VP anomalies were quite abound in the 1950's and 60's with more concentration of +VP over South America versus MC. The only time since then was 1977 and 2006 where the more positive forcing was focused more to SA and Central America versus MC. 2018 was rather wonky.

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The good thing about the mjo is that once it gets into phase 7, it opens up the possibility for a big EC snowstorm. Look closely at @GaWx charts… the biggest KUs start as waves entering the CONUS when we’re in 7. 

Yes phase 7-1 is rather good for snowstorm potential in the east. If we can get more consistent neutral or positive PNA regimes (preferably positive) I would agree otherwise the cold and storm action spills into western plains and mountains as we have seen the last 3 years, which puts the storm track further west. I would like to think that we have at least some opportunity for more consistent +PNA patterns with this upcoming winter.

Phase 3 and 7 are the transitionary phases from Nina to Nino atmospheric responses, vice versa. 

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

I finally was able to find past TAO/Triton Data here is the monthly mean break down since March. Unfortunately the data only goes back to June of 1989.

 

Took a little time to do the monthlies for 1997 and 2015 while at work. March to December monthly means for both years. Once we get October monthly we may a different picture from the previous post. Ill check other years weak, moderate, strong to see if we can see a somewhat similar evolution taking place.

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Correct, it’s in the top 3 in the last over 43 years. That would classify as “near record”, I didn’t say it was “the record”, but extremely impressive nonetheless. And @Terpeast just in terms of SSTs, I consider it to be east-based, it’s not even close to being a Modoki, or becoming one….not even in the ballpark 

1982 was also warmer at this time for Nino 3 so I guess top 4 it is. I wouldn't have quoted you had you not put in parenthesis (record warm) when explaining that Region 3 is almost near +2.0C on OISST. 

BTW do you have a link for those IOD values just trying to get them for my records.

13 hours ago, Terpeast said:

 

Interesting changes in the last 15 days. 

1) WPAC warm pool has cooled quite a bit, while nino 4 & 3.4 has warmed (though 4 has recently cooled while nino 3 warmed a bit). Could help -VP forcing shift a bit east of the dateline if this isn’t just a temporary blip. 

2) Strong cooling off Japan as their season gets colder, leading the upcoming rise in the PDO. Also the “cold tongue” off the west coast of mexico has also warmed slightly. However, ssts off the U.S. West Coast are still cooling. We’ll need that to stop and reverse in the next couple of months if we want a sustained +PNA in Jan-Feb when it counts.

This will definitely be interesting to watch coming up. We either reverse the -PDO rather drastically or the Nino takes a hit. As long as we do not go back to a ridging pattern around Japan we should continue this for the time being. Looks like things changed around end of August with ridging focused more near the Aleutians for September.

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Latest ENSO weekly update:

Region 1+2: +2.6C
Region 3: +1.9C
Region 3.4: +1.5C
Region 4: +1.2C

This El Niño is still very east-based. I see very little to no chance at all of this event becoming a Modoki, despite the non stop hype from JB. Region 1+2 has warmed back up to +2.8C on the OISST as of yesterday’s update, region 3 is almost +2.0C (record warm) on OISST

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

How is Region 3 near record warmth for this week? '97 had a 2.7 anomaly the week of Oct 1 and 2015 had a 2.3 anomaly the week of Oct 7th.

I finally was able to find past TAO/Triton Data here is the monthly mean break down since March. Unfortunately the data only goes back to June of 1989.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx This is very likely to be the strongest +IOD event in history. It jumped all the way up to +1.85 and still strengthening

 

 

 

 

Can't find a source for the IOD data as presented, would love a link for those numbers as well as past numbers.

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m talking specifically about the area of the tropical W Pacific W of Nino 4 and N of Australia from 120E to 160E, 15N to 15S. This is an area that meteorologist Brad Harvey has been focusing on for W Pacific forcing that had previously been at or near record highs for much of the last three years. He believes that the warmth of this area has likely been a major contributing factor toward recent years’ winter warmth in the E US/increased domination by the infamous “SE ridge” by focusing tropical convection N of Australia, thus leading to both a tendency for increased duration/amplitude of warmer winter MJO phases and tropical forcing from that area to dominate even when the MJO wasn’t officially in warm phases.

 Here is a link that calculates that tropical WPac area’s SSTs for Septembers back to 1948:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=15&lat2=-15&lon1=120&lon2=160&iseas=1&mon1=8&mon2=8&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

 Below is the image of that area’s SSTs for Septembers going back to 1948. It shows the 0.7C to 0.8C cooling in 2023 vs 2020-2 along with the cooling that I assume was associated with the aforementioned fall 2019 IOD event. It isn’t quite as cool as the 2015 Nino Sept (0.108C warmer than Sept 2015) although it is 0.133C cooler than the 2014 Nino Sept and is 0.231C cooler than the 2009 Nino Sept:

I  gotta ask if I am doing this right say I wanna look at anywhere east of the dateline essentially trying to grab a 180-100W scope but since it is in east degrees would i put 180 to 260 as the input?