so_whats_happening

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This background state makes me think that once the WWB hits this Nino is really going to go into overdrive and take off, our background state now is way warmer than 1997 and 1982 and even 2015

The thing I would question is how is this El Nino really going to go. Near record levels of -PDO with no flip imminent, almost every portion of the tropics showing anomalous warmth with right now 1+2 showing the highest anomalous warmth. We are barely ticking things over into weak El Nino territory in 4/3.4/3 while 1+2 has remained near strong to super levels. The lack of cooling around Australia and the maritime is important to note as well as the warming up again of the Atlantic tropical waters. If you want the main focus of warming and forcing to be with the central an eastern Pacific these other factors you certainly do not want to see. 

It will be again interesting to watch the next month to see what happens. If the MJO wave dies into null it will be probably hard to stop the kelvin wave associated with the WWB but just how much influence will it have other than opening up the potential for a bit more warming or sustaining the East Pac El Nino signal with a slight reduction in trades.

This is certainly a flavor of ENSO we have not seen in quite some time or in general has not happened. Unfortunately I wanna say global SSTs are really throwing things off. If we had this exact same setup say 40 years ago would we have had the 1+2 region pushing 2.5-3C above average? I feel it may have been a push to 1-1.5C in 1+2 and then a slow warm up across the eastern Pac which we all would have then said ok looks like maybe a weak to moderate El Nino but with again on average SSTs being almost 1-1.5C above average globally are we really going to push strong to super status? We should be taking off in the next month if we are to match AMJ of 57-58, 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16. Not many times do we have a situation like this coming off a La Nina (triple dip at that) and going straight into a strong or super Nino. Most of the time we have some neutral to weak status on either side of the ENSO spectrum before we go full bore into strong and super. Just some things to think about who knows this could really throw us for a curveball this year yet. Personally would like to wait until we get this WWB through to see how the ocean and atmosphere react.

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Again...I have no issue with a neutral to negative PDO ....but just not sure a top 5 el nino in terms of intensity, or extremely eastern biased ordeal is a certainty. 

Yea ill move my goal post of weak el nino to moderate at this point. Still not thinking super nino If this wwb works out decently we could see a peak near strong not sure we see consecutively yet to label a strong nino but regardless this will be notable to watch unfold in june and july with ssts. We may get lucky if this develops quickly and doesnt stay strong through late fall and winter. Otherwise expecting below average winter again with the random chance of getting a single large storm similar to 15-16 that would put folks near average. Crossing my fingers a more moderate approach sets up.

Now this is certainly something you want to see happen to sustain the el  Nino and maybe finally give it a solid kick.

I could get behind a moderate El Nino. Included a strong one and two that pushed super nino briefly. These are years with cold/neutral or La Nina the winter before. Ill wait and see how this develops but anything above moderate may present a problem for winter lovers in the east again depending where forcing can actually set up.

The issue unfortunately is that a lot of these years predate 2000 so we are certainly in a different climate setting than those times so it will be interesting to see how this gets going.

8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I was thinking this still has alot of potential growth to be a pretty strong NINO upcoming the MJO seems like it gonna get stuck into the WP well into May seemingly.1997 was still much colder than it was right now in the west.CFS seems to be hinting at a strong KW as we get into May that could upwell those warm subsurface temps,i'm not no pro like you are so its just IMHO..lol

No pro still have much to learn overall, unfortunately tropics were not my forte in college so still always learning on that aspect. Always welcome to discussion and different thoughts. The big reason I highlighted these different aspects was because you want to see oceanic processes cooperate to help re-enforce the atmospheric component and help sustain a particular mode of ENSO. When we had Nina conditions we saw the oceanic pattern amplify the atmospheric conditions and while it was not a strong La Nina this past year it was more connected than the past two years, you can see this in the MEI data ( https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ ) . West Pac warm pool/ maritime and strong eastern Pac upwelling. We had one impressive MJO wave that finally seemed to allow the pattern to move around a bit and ease of up trades in the eastern PAC. I would like to see continued WWB events to warrant much past moderate status overall in 3.4 region. The thermocline is already lowered so it wouldn't take much to continue to slowly warm these waters but with having WWB event so far west I wonder just how far east these can get and allow the decline of the thermocline to allow the subsurface warming to takeover. As many have stated to really allow for a strong Nino we need these (WWB) to occur closer to the dateline to allow for the Pac as a whole to finally tip the bucket if you will. Honestly lets see how it evolves if we start to see strong OLR signals more toward the maritime and western Pac then certainly we will have started to see the atmospheric component change up and could help lead us to strong El Nino potential. Otherwise with an anomalous West Pac/ Maritime ocean and eastern Pac ocean these are fighting signals that may hinder the overall potential. Lets see how it evolves in the next two months as we may get a better handle on things and see if we do in fact get a WWB event that can extend with time closer to the dateline.

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, the ENSO regions are starting off warmer now than 1997 at this time, obvious differences are the strong -PDO, strong +AMO and the high solar this year, but we have the same MJO/WWB amplification, +IOD, east-based Nino development and -QBO as 1997 did, the 96-97 winter was cold-neutral ENSO

Here are the MJO configurations for 1982/1997/ 2015. These were some of the most intense Nino episodes we have on record. Interesting to note the strong MJO wave in March for 1997/2015. It is hard to discern with overall warmer global SST's while trying to compare to the past but maybe we are achieving these temp differences in the same manner as past El Nino events just with a higher base state? Unfortunately can not find past 850u anom maps for those years luckily can see at least subsurface those years.

I hate to go off the idea what happened in the past should happen again given these same factors because that can really steer us the wrong way. Trust me im not in the gotcha game if we go full bore strong/super Nino by all means great (not sure it will help many of us in the winter department but so be it) Im more so trying to take a cautious approach as models have failed on ENSO transitions numerous times with a warming world and the competing factors we still presently have do not help. Lets just see what happens in the next two months if we are on track for a 97/98 scenario we would start to take off about now 15/16 already had a warmed Pac so it transitioned quite a bit easier. If anything I would consider next year to have the better potential of a strong/ super nino when conditions may reflect it much better but that has just been a random thought in my head.

This is where you can get past MJO data http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

11 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

MJO activity heading into 4/5/6 on some forecasts instead of null and re-emerging into Nino phases of 8/1/2 like we have the past two months. Curious where this goes from here as we start to get into territory of how the El Nino will progress. Here is essentially end of April SST anoms and 7 day change.

Overall still seems to be alot of mixed signals taking place.

For reference to a SST anom for 1997 going into the super Nino this was a monthly mean for April that year. You can see we are trying to get a similar profile look to that year. Cooling taking place in the central and NW Atlantic, warming up of the west coast waters but notice the still rather warm anomalies across the western Pac. Have a feeling this may disrupt the atmospheric process a bit to ensure a strong Nino is coming. Honestly though anything to shake up the pattern is fine with me at this point.

MJO activity heading into 4/5/6 on some forecasts instead of null and re-emerging into Nino phases of 8/1/2 like we have the past two months. Curious where this goes from here as we start to get into territory of how the El Nino will progress. Here is essentially end of April SST anoms and 7 day change.

Overall still seems to be alot of mixed signals taking place.

It is a forecast of course but this is extremely far west for a WWB event. At least the eastern portion of the two areas may present some type of sustaining effect for waters in the eastern Pacific. Have to see how it plays out.

I wanna say we have a busy start to the season while Nina conditions atmospherically still exist with the tropics moistening up a bit due to the transition into a El Nino state will help moisten up tropics and subtropics in the Atlantic. Think we start early and end early if we do actually get an El Nino of more than weak forming. Really curious how this goes honestly, wouldn't be surprised to get near the average if not slightly more named storms ( Average 14 NS, 7 H, 3 M for reference).

Interesting to see the Caribbean being a sinkhole would definitely fit the mode of transitioning into El Nino but also open the door for east coast hits and if ones can sneak in GOM hits.

I mean this is a step in the right direction at least. Would like to see more robust WWB but none the less a WWB will do. Forecast shows little continuation unfortunately so we will most likely get a cooling occurring in most locations for now. Expecting the warm up to surface end of May? from the current WWB. If we see another WWB try to set up in about 2 weeks or so it will give me more confidence in the more moderate maybe touching low end strong, if consistency can pop up that is. Starting to see some cooling Eastern IO and NW Australia so maybe we are starting to see some type of connection occur. It would seem we may be having issues trying to find exactly where forcing will set up. Still decent positive anoms in Maritime/ NE Australia region, very positive anoms along Peru, and an impressive amount of warmth in the eastern Atlantic.

Would like to say we should have a better idea of evolution by mid May, hopefully.

7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Something to do with WWBs from the context.  It was in the El Nino thread.

Maybe it was just put in a different way but Equatorial Rossby Wave? In the summer you can get tropical activity that is in a broad low pressure region that can create WWB events similar to the MJO movement. MJO location plays a key role and with it staying in 8 that is about central PAC (slightly skewed west) it may open the door to allow for WWB events to set up into the summer. Going forward an area of thunderstorm activity should pop up west of the dateline that may help induce cooling around the maritime, sinking air into eastern IO, and overall help strengthen an El Nino like pattern. Big if to see that type of activity evolve though the next 2 months will be interesting to see if we start to see changes actually occur. It is great seeing ocean temps change up but without sustained activity atmospherically to keep that going we get a failed Nino attempt.

I recommend Met Ed UCAR they have great tools and examples. Little complex at times but there is no need to rush through the lessons.

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/education_training/

it is free to setup as far as I am aware. Just type in MJO and you will find two training courses that will teach you ins and outs of MJO, the activity involved, quick ENSO lesson, Rossby wave activity and more.

eye wall replacement?

I honestly have been wondering this myself especially with how far east the nino is forming right now. The atlantic as a whole is above average and quite above average along western africa/europe and gulf/ east coast i wonder if we could have a rather quick start to hurricane season as lifting will be focused in this region of the globe and slowly taper off as the season goes on throwing mostly close to home storm potential with shear likely on the increase across the tropics with developing nino as we close the season.

This development of nino has been rather interesting to watch unfold. Im not sure i would go on to the strong side of things for a forecast, moderate may be a peak but that we will find out in due time. Thinking weak nino is probably the right call with an edge toward moderate slowly increasing as we get consistency in time. 

From a mid atlantic perspective we are still very much in the grasp of la nina with the dry/warm conditions in the area. Would like to see us moisten up as well as the se besides coastal regions before summer sets in.

Well it is actually snowing at BWI first time this year of actual accumulating snowfall, not flurries. Looks nice and great to see!

DCA +3.3

NYC +3.3 

BOS +3.1
ORD +3

ATL+2.3

IAH +2

DEN -2

PHX-1.2

SEA -0.8

2 minutes ago, Newman said:

Roads are mainly just wet here, although some edges of pavement are turning white. Rates aren't that heavy I don't think for a full cave of the roads

Streets are starting to take on snow downtown started maybe 15 mins ago.

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What was the cause of that extreme cold between 2013 and 2015?  The super el nino of 2015-16 ended that.

The thing I remember about Pinatubo was the year without a summer (1992) and then the 1993-94 very cold and stormy winter.

Going back to the 80s we also had El Chichon and some very cold winters in the early and mid 80s.

 

Persistent Ridging in the Gulf of Alaska had a NW flow pattern for the general timeline of January 2013-December 2015.

Edit to add on this was the general pattern for 2010-2012 which showed our area in a relatively warmer pattern. I will say smoothing over year to year doesn't do it justice but gives you a general idea of why things happened that way.

19 hours ago, chubbs said:

Lets broaden out the analysis. Here is the philadelphia airport vs other Mt Holly long-term climate sites and the NOAA climate series for SE Pa. Yes Philadelphia was too warm last year. The problem started at the end of 2021 and ended late in 2022. Easy to see by comparing with nearby stations. Over the long-term though there is good agreement among the climate sites and with the NOAA regional record. phl is warming a bit faster and abe a bit slower, but good agreement overall.

What about the coop stations? Lets go back to the 1940s. The COOPs were using mercury max/min thermometers that were reset between 5 and 7 PM. This alone added roughly 1F of warming bias, vs the climate sites that were on a midnight-to-midnight basis. There may have been other differences between the climate sites and coop stations.

Secondly, The chart you posted shows poor agreement among the Chesco sites both year-to-year and over the long-term. As an example below is a chart I have handy comparing Glenmoore and Coatesville 2W. Both of these stations can't be right. Fortunately the NOAA bias adjustment can sort out the station updates and measurement problems. In the chart below Coatesville is good and Glenmoore way off. After adjustment the coops come into much better agreement and look like the other regional data.

Regarding "heat island" effects. You've been reading too much Tony Heller and other climate deniers. This isn't a rapidly growing area. The airport doesn't change much from year-to-year or even decade-to-decade. Certainly not enough to impact temperature measurements.

 

 

Very cool to see that temp drop in 2012-2015. Those were the years of the RRR. Can see the super Nino in the late 90s can see a spike in temps around Pinatubo (may not be directly affecting it just interesting). One thing of note though is the variability in year over year temps is much larger (larger swings) even with an ever increasing baseline.

Quite the warm anomaly in the east lol

DCA:  +2.1

NYC:  +1.6

BOS:  +1.9

ORD:  +2.1

ATL:  +0.9

IAH:  +1.6

DEN:  +2.4

PHX:  +0.7

SEA:  +0.8

On 12/24/2022 at 3:35 AM, Roger Smith said:

I won't calculate any preliminary scores, will leave the outcome hanging in suspense until we get to the actual end of the month numbers, partly because I think the outcome lies perhaps within the margin of error. RodneyS had a bit of a lead on DonS and wxdude64 going in, but their forecasts are different enough that either Don or wxdude64 could in theory edge past RodneyS at the final showdown. Then I looked further down the annual scoring table, Tom has an outside chance of catching some of the three leaders but would need to max out on all differentials he's holding (a colder ATL, IAH and a milder SEA for example). 

My plan is to go ahead with a contest for 2023 and see how it goes. Any ideas about expanding our field welcome up to and including a change in management. It might just be that more Am Wx forum members would participate even if nothing else changes but the brand name, but if anyone thinks they would like to give that a go, I would be quite glad to co-operate in that venture. And certainly any new contest manager should feel free to change anything about the format. It is what it is, and I am also happy enough to continue on, it's a small but enthusiastic and contest-loyal group we have so it's also fine to keep going as is. Whatever, have a great holiday and check in around January 1-2 to see what happened. There will be the usual January relaxed late penalty call for forecasts around 27th of December. 

I and am sure many others on here appreciate the commitment you have to doing this every month and even messaging us personally for monthly temp submissions (this is appreciated as I at least get an email that reminds me). I enjoy this as a test of skills and just some fun. I will respect whatever decision you make for the upcoming year but would love to see this contest continue. If you need help from time to time don't be afraid to ask. I and am sure many others would happily step in from time to time if need be to give you a break if that would be much easier on you. I can ask in another forum I am in if they would like to join, many of which are just enthusiasts but like to dabble in long range discussion so maybe a little friendly competition?

I can see how the commitment to keeping a regular time schedule with forecasts can be very difficult have had some issues myself. This is what I think discourages people from joining more often. I hate to give up the idea of this being a contest though but that probably discourages those who loosely would play.

On 10/2/2022 at 11:38 PM, vortex95 said:

K74V - Roosevelt UT
KGGF - Grant NE
KS24 - Clyde OH
KZER - Pottsville PA

METAR Site ID change:
KI43 to KJRO - Jackson OH

 

Was this to take place of KMUI? Also just saw it online at AWC for the first time.

I haven't looked at winds all too much with this but would probably be when we get the system off the delmarva. Best bet is to take a look at what is going on around DCA/BWI as the low comes up the coast. Looks like it may pop out at the mouth of the Chesapeake. Most were pushing it just SE of Baltimore flooding us with warmth. 

Just now, sauss06 said:

i'm not sure why i can't get this to load correctly, what time does it show for potential flip over to snow/sleet?

According to FV3 it says within the next hour.

We may be in peak heating right now for 850mb. Nice cool pool forming through central PA and decent frontogenesis occurring across VA. Which could suggest we do get a random burst of snow/sleet occur and then back over to rain/FZR. Over the next 6 hours or so is when we see some of the heaviest precip so this would be the time we test how 'warm' the boundary is.

We may get another fun time to watch as the surface low gets caught just east of 95 or offshore short range has been varying with placement of that low which could make a random chance of seeing another bit of snow/ sleet later on this evening.