so_whats_happening

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Subsurface data finished at -0.2 for January 2022. If you like the subsurface as the pattern indicator in real time, currently much weaker event than last year in the 100-180W zone, when the subsurface was -1.0 or so. The subsurface actually moved a tiny bit above average (warm) in the most recently weekly update from CPC.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Sunspot data has been interesting. Up to over 40 sunspots/month since July. Still trending up pretty rapidly. 

My winter forecast assumed there would be some kind of major cold dump into New Mexico / Texas in February. It's a bit early, but we could have a high of 28F or something - that's very cold. After today, the first week of February looks very cold with highs in the 20s, 30s, and 40s, when average is about 50. Some of our mountains will get 20 inches of snow or more with the coming system. I did flag it in mid-January using the massive Rex Block by Kamchatka, but no one cares. Even mentioned it would be a cold system. The joke is the "benchmark" for the NE has a translation spot in the North Pacific at 17-21 days out, and so the big system for New England was there a few days before the setup below.

 

You were much more humble before I really did enjoy reading your posts but this just doesn't help. Not sure what got to you but hopefully it doesn't keep affecting you.

DCA+0.8

NYC +0.7

BOS +0.5

ORD -1.1 -->-1.6

ATL +1.5

IAH +1.0

DEN +0.4

PHX +1.2

SEA -1.0

Edit at 11z changed ORD a little colder

DCA -0.5

NYC -0.6

BOS-0.9

ORD -3.1

ATL 0.6

IAH 1.2

DEN -1.4

PHX 1.4

SEA -1.8

Arctic taking hits now extent and area have slumped for now but with prospects of ridging pushing into the Bering sea and ESS/ Chuchki as well as along the Atlantic front we will likely continue the stall or have ever slight gains over the next couple weeks its still cold up there just not as cold. The cold gets displaced over land most notably the North American side could see quite the cool down take shape outside of just Alaska and Western Canada. We have dropped back down again to the 2010's average so still keep running along that path since end of melt season. 

Globally though wow at the Antarctic right now. Some of its lowest values since 2016 taking hold which is dropping extent and area globally to almost the edge of the 2SD region. Still not as bad as 2016 as the Arctic has not taken a major hit this season, yet.

Im sure ill get the lil hotdog thing everyone seems to cherish so much on this site.

Im not Chris but yes with the exception of the stretch from about 2015 to 2017 (wonder what could have enhanced that, hmmm lol). If we go by the idea of about 30 years on average for signals to flip we should be close by about mid 2020's and by 2030 area we should be on a more positive regime. Not to say it follows it exactly though.

DCA +1.5

NYC +1.1

BOS 0

ORD 1.0

ATL 1.2

IAH +1.7

DEN+2

PHX +1.5

SEA-0.4

Those darn nighttime lows got me last month and man the west was warm.

DCA 16"

NYC 34"

BOS 62"

ORD 41"

DTW 45"

BUF 74"

DEN 36"

SEA 11"

BTV 91"

6 hours ago, NEOH said:

It's pretty remarkable the ice extent is closer to the 1990's average than 2016. Obviously a lot change in the arctic quickly. 

Its great to see of course. Although im not sure remarkable is appropriate yet. If we can hold an average season without any big shake ups and push into this summer holding strong I will start using remarkable (I know sounds pushy). For now it is good to see that the Arctic is holding it's own. I still worry as we go into mid December signs of ridging poking into the Bering and the Atlantic front, good thing for mid latitudes bad up there.

Heyy about right on time to start showing the positives. Seems like data is always cherry picked anymore since you were focusing on how high Antarctica was over summer now at some of its lowest levels in satellite era and the fact that the Arctic was essentially on the road to recovery. Ice just getting obliterated down there as they head into summer. But hey the Arctic seems to be doing ok right! Never mind CAA is doing horrendous for this time of year which is usually the last place to really get hit in intense summers and its close by regions of Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay, Greenland Sea and Beaufort Sea just struggling hard right now.

So annoying to see when folks only post the good and not the bad but this stuff happens when the mid latitudes roast and get into some wild patterns of persistence. Anyway hope it stays this way cause one decent SSW or storms coming into Bering Sea or Atlantic front could ruin the day real quick. We may see a rather extensive halt in sea ice expansion come mid December if things play out as many seem to think it will. Lets watch and see.

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

La Nina warming (weakening) has stopped for now. If we switch back to cooling for December, that will be another feather in the cap for the 2011 comparison below the surface. 

I'm not sure where people get this image, but I saw Larry Cosgrove quote it, so might as well show it here:

ONI weeklies at the surface are a bit more colder than I would have guessed. Month to date, still no comparison to last year at the surface. Keep in mind, on the monthly data, last year finished 25.28C at the surface in Nino 3.4

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA 
 06OCT2021     21.0 0.2     24.7-0.3     26.1-0.6     28.0-0.7
 13OCT2021     20.7-0.2     24.4-0.7     26.0-0.8     28.1-0.5
 20OCT2021     20.3-0.7     24.2-0.8     25.9-0.8     28.1-0.6
 27OCT2021     20.6-0.6     24.1-0.9     25.6-1.1     28.2-0.5
 03NOV2021     20.6-0.8     24.4-0.7     25.8-1.0     28.0-0.7
 10NOV2021     20.9-0.7     24.5-0.6     26.0-0.8     28.0-0.7
 17NOV2021     20.8-1.0     24.0-1.1     25.7-1.0     27.9-0.7

 07OCT2020     20.1-0.7     24.1-0.9     25.8-0.9     27.9-0.7
 14OCT2020     20.5-0.4     24.1-0.9     25.6-1.1     27.8-0.8
 21OCT2020     20.5-0.6     24.2-0.9     25.5-1.3     27.8-0.8
 28OCT2020     20.3-0.9     23.8-1.3     25.0-1.7     28.0-0.7
 04NOV2020     20.5-0.9     24.0-1.1     25.3-1.5     27.9-0.8
 11NOV2020     21.1-0.5     24.2-0.9     25.7-1.0     28.1-0.6
 18NOV2020     21.4-0.5     24.1-1.0     25.6-1.1     27.9-0.7

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/assorted-plots

This is where you get that second picture

DCA +1.3

NYC +1.5

BOS +1.6

ORD +0.6

ATL -0.8

IAH  +1.4

DEN +1.5

PHX +0.9

SEA  -1

Probably going to change it a little come sunday

DCA +2.5

NYC +1.7

BOS +1.2

ORD +3.2

ATL +1

IAH +1

DEN +1.4

PHX +0.4

SEA -0.8

Just had a 35knot pk wnd. Have rainfall rates from ASOS of .11" per min in ten mins we received .75" 

Currently sitting at 1.2" and just going to town right now.

Storms west of Germantown need watching. Just flat out deluge going on  winds easily 25-30 mph

Working at KBWI right now and watching closely it looks to be going more ENE now we may not get down to the southern end but that is one impressive looking storm for this time of day.

15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's for extent, but for area, we've seen August minimums. I believe 1992 was 8/31 and 2005 used to have an 8/30 min but recent revisions to the NSIDC database now has 9/3 as barely edging out 8/30 for the min.

But 8/23 is ridiculous for a min....if an August minimum on area would occur, it would be around the last day or two of the month.

Yea I didnt dive into area mins as i dont have nearly as much data to go off of. So thanks for that.

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There may be a temporary negative feedback of sorts...as ice melts closer to the pole, the refreeze starts a little earlier there because of the higher latitude which may offset the later refreeze further out on the periphery of the ice. 

That negative feedback would eventually get overwhelmed by a warmer climate. 

That seems like a reasonable assumption with the trek of ice pushing closer and closer to the pole it stands a chance of offsetting the later start potential exactly for that reason. Eventually it evens out and starts the later freeze up again with time as warming continues. I dont believe there is a significant change that can be seen yet just by bin filing of dates at this point with our standard min that sets up around 12-13th of september based on temps. Its just seems as though the last 2 decades have consistently had later refreeze dates with sporadic dates still falling within the normal realm.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

when was the last time we had a minimum before September?

Im pretty sure you already know the answer.

For some reason when I google it says 1980 but looking at the NSIDC graphs thats clearly not the case as it gets to min around the 6th area. Think the earliest is september 5th in 1987 so in satellite era I dont believe an august has happened. Most fall around the 10th-14th and then well we have pushed that with warmer waters to almost 18th now in 2000 on era some years still managed to go in that range but more than 50% were later than the 14th. While from 1980-2000 more than 50% fell in that range of time some later and some earlier. So we seem to be adding 1-2 day extensions to the end of season every decade of course that is back of the envelope look at the situation because not every year ends up that way. Im sure on the other side of this we could probably see the melting season starting earlier than before, maybe even a similar rate?

Unfortunately I dont follow closely what happens when storms come from my area west of philly to the NJ/NYC/LI region. If I had to take a guess at the situation you are pointing out wind direction I believe plays a large role for the marine layer along the coastline and how high up that layer reaches. If you get a low marine layer you can still potentially see storms as they have enough energy aloft to allow for the storm to continue versus a deeper marine layer or one higher up which would effectively stabilize a layer cutting off storm potential. Another factor for storms lasting past the diurnal swing could be CAPE aloft (ml and mu cape are some that can show potential while sb cape could be 0 or even negative (CIN)) as well as the intensity of the shortwave energy. There are probably more intricate ways of explaining this but without more knowledge of the region this is what im left with as conclusions, maybe a person closer to the coast would know better.

I know being out in Lancaster sometimes we get the marine layer influence from the Chesapeake bay that cuts off storm potential when we get a SE or SSE wind but I believe wind strength plays a large role in that situation since we are good 30-40 miles away from that source.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0        1.1       1.3       0        0.8     1.0      0.8     1.2     1.7

They will be back once we have another small uptick, im watching history unfold here.

Again with the chatter please take it to the other threads and leave this for ice. Looks like the early prediction was a false hope as we are at 3.34 mil sq km. Probably have another 2 weeks or so before we see the minimum running close. NSIDC probably just above 5 mil by the end of it all for extent.

The Beaufort area has really taken a hit this month so far.

Subsurface also gaining some momentum

Can we keep this for ice discussion, glad there is chatter about this stuff but thats why there are like 3 other threads for that.

I had originally thought 4.5mil was the upper bound for this season but with the rather abrupt slowdown it looks as though there is still potential to get close but looking like we fall within the range of 4.7-5mil at season minimum for extent NSIDC may actually stay above 5 mil which would be impressive. The ice while remaining above the new norm and decent retention this season still warrants concern for years to come. It took an almost near perfect pattern for us to keep the situation from going wild up there. With this year looking more and more like a second year la nina we start to question when exactly we may push the next bin and see drop offs again. The looming potential of a decent el nino within the next year or two has me worried a bit. 

While a rapid freeze seems to be the new norm leading into fall I hope we can actually remove some energy from the system before we start to freeze up. 

For now though AO pattern seems to be the key factor leading into summer melt seasons lets hope we may see some good thickening of sea ice this winter across the arctic.

Wow congratulations Rodney S some good forecasting there!

DCA +.8

NYC +1.0

BOS -0.8

ORD -1.4

ATL -0.3

IAH +0.4

DEN +1.1

PHX +0.3

SEA +1.4

Before I forget lol

On 7/26/2021 at 9:43 PM, Weatherdude88 said:

 

Let's look at the average surface pressure in 2016. Does this look familiar? It should. The 2016 summer melting season featured a positive AO.

Let's look at 925mb temps. 

Here is 2016:

Here is 2021:

Upper level temps were significantly cooler (especially in the Western Arctic) in 2016 despite a similar pressure configuration in 2021 over the Central / Western Arctic.

 

The composite anomaly for 2016 instead of the SLP for the same time period as bluewaves post for comparison purposes.

Not as anomalous as this year and 1989, still decent. 2016 got torn up the following month (7/16-8/16) across the region where the anomalies were. Not to mention coming off a super nino.

The Pacific was struggling hard that year while if we look back at 2013 not only was the ice strong in similar locations to this year https://cryospherecomputing.tk/PastSIT.html <-- scroll to 6/1/13 and compare it to the video shown https://cryospherecomputing.tk/SIT.html  (scroll down to the video) starting on 6/1/21. This year has featured more winds off the continent so ice depleted quickly along the siberian coast/ Laptev Sea area and more compaction, if you will, over toward the america/canada region. I included the 2013 anomaly plot for comparison similar placement to 1989 just not as anomalous as this year and 1989.