Itstrainingtime

And CTP stated on Twitter this morning that today's low temp will be the coldest for at least the next 7 days.

It's telling that you'd post that on the night it was still an AN departure...normal low for today at MDT is 23.

Agreed...I think we should easily top 60 on at least one day. Euro has been steadfast for days now that the southern areas get up in the 64-66 range.

Only a 25 degree difference between International Falls and Tallahassee...that's crazy!

@daxx @Bubbler86@MAG5035 If we're rooting for the northern stream vort to deliver, do we want the southern stream to be squashed as much as possible? I'm trying to figure out how we can get the northern stream to develop/redevelop to it's maximum potential. I would think that if the southern vort is quicker/sheared/farther south, the northern stream could dig better?

I'm virtually tech illiterate. I found it in seconds by Googling "NWS State College Twitter" and scrolled down their twitter feed a bit until I found it. That's the best that I can do! (and I hope that helps!)

Keep in mind that at least some of that in part is due to a lack of "normal fluctuations" between our daily high/low. (Instead of having a "normal" split of say 37/20, we've had our share of days at 42/36 for example) Bottom line...we've had a few very warm days but we've also had MANY well above normal low temps.

This is from CTP from this past weekend. Really illustrates the lack of cold this month. 20 of the first 25 days in January were AN.

100% agree with this. Just because we're in a bad place doesn't mean we'll end there. Would not surprise me in the least to end the season with a "bang."

I haven't worn a coat since I was a kid living at home. I have a light jacket (windbreaker kind of deal) and a couple of sweatshirts. Right now we're (LNS) sitting in 7th place all-time for January warmth. As you and others have pointed out we've had very warm days in January and February in recent years and this year is no exception - what is standing out to me this winter is the complete lack of very cold nights. Without looking I'd say we've only had a few nights in the teens and probably none of them below 15. Lack of snow cover certainly plays a part in that...

Hold on that...I just checked with my cousin in Seattle. I think the most discouraging thing this morning is that we MIGHT be looking at a 7-10 day stretch of relatively dry weather.

How many days in a row can the sky look exactly the same as the day before?

That sort of matches the 12z Euro today.

Horst weighs in on the weekend: (NOAA is scheduling a dropsonde this evening) "This data will aid initialization of forecast models...and hopefully increase confidence in weekend storm details along the East coast. The current pattern bias favors a light rain-snow mix in the low lands and big cities, but some snow in the mountains. Stay tuned!" #RemainCalm

Yes. We need everything to align perfectly to have a chance this weekend...at least for next weekend the setup looks more workable.

100% correct, that's what I've been saying. And it could still happen. Tons of volatility out there...

No one in this thread is going full meltdown or anything close to it. My response to yours regarding the 12z goofus raining on the Atlantic waters was to SUPPORT what you said about models losing storms at range. That's why I quoted your post in my response... I think that there are plenty of level heads posting here today.

I was going to post for you but thought better of it. Turns out you posted exactly what I would have said! (that you would say) "If Brian isn't posting there's a damn good reason for it." (nothing to see here, move along...)

The "goofus" at 12z is raining on the Atlantic waters and not much else.

True...it's not dead yet.

Really feel like this is either a 4"+ or nothing at all type of deal. We're not going to snow much less accumulate unless we get under some heavy QPF.

Popping in from Lancaster county just to say that I think every word of this post is spot on. Even out this way I have what I call "hope but next to zero expectation." Way too many things argue against this working for us...but there's just enough intrigue with it being a potential coastal to keep tracking.

That seems to be time when the players are progged to be aligned for our best opportunity. I'm genuinely interested in the period beginning in about 10 days. Yeah...I know.