Itstrainingtime

GFS is usually the most suppressed, NAM is usually the most amped. Biases factored in, I still think I-81 is money.

@HorstWeather "Wednesday storm is fast, but potent...with a perfect (for snow) 1037mb high over Quebec. Temps below freezing throughout, but a period of "mix" likely (Lanco) at peak of storm (warm intrusion aloft). My "first call" is 6 - 12" (Lanco), w/ 16" likely N & W of Harrisburg." "The upper-level energy for the Wednesday storm is just coming into norCal today...so the storm track in the Mid-Atlantic is subject to shift a bit. Right now, the heaviest in PA looks to be near Blue Mountain and I-81 to I-87 to Poconos...with a bullseye of 16"+ possible."

Geez, the 12k NAM spits out 4" of snow in southern Lanco and 24" across the northern part of the county...

Fair enough. I don't remember the 2/5 storm trending north. I vividly remember the storm in December coming north though - 48 hours out we were looking at 4" at most.

I think Nut's approach is especially prudent at this point. High hopes, realistic expectations.

Sometimes...certainly not the case in the winter of 2009-10 though. Ask NYC about confluence that winter. The storm on 2/5/2010 dropped over 2' in central Jersey and never made it to the metro area. It hit a brick wall and just stopped. They're still waiting for that storm to arrive.

Same!

Thrilled to have you sharing your thoughts and analysis Matt. Man, I guess it's the year we've been dealing with, but I'm weenie-ing out excessively tonight. If we ever needed this type of diversion, this is the time.

Welcome to the week of pissed off, non- understanding wives. My wife wanted to know what was wrong while I was watching the GFS come in...

Yes. Also, with large east coast storms the GFS is usually the most progressive/strung out/east of most models. I don't like that it's on the western edge of the envelope. (Though the operational run was way left of the mean)

For those interested, Horst doesn't tweet as much as he did when he was weather director at MU. He updated an hour or so ago saying he expects a jackpot of 16" somewhere in our area. Of course, mentions taint in York and Lancaster with all snow north and west of Harrisburg.

GFS ensemble mean looks very good!

I often forget that. I finished last season with 10.2". I had a storm that dropped 6" here that largely missed your area.

Exactly, and on all accounts. Those from Harrisburg north and west didn't notice this, but for us...it's obvious. Equally obvious, it's 1 run from 1 model, so there's that. But the EPS was moving north as well.

No, I meant Wednesday's storm. For my area, this was a step back. Not totally unexpected, but there's far more mixing for our area.

Not what LSV peeps were hoping to see. Especially MDT south and east.

Yes. I'm almost convinced that I have mixing issues here in Lanco. I'm much more worried about an inland vs. suppressed scenario. As @MillvilleWx said in your thread, you have to know your climate with large east coast storms. Rarely do I not taint, especially this early in the season with sea temps above normal. Just the way we role in the Lancaster area. Gut says that Franklin county NE to perhaps the Coal Region jackpots in our area.

Cashtown Crusher!

You are correct, but I would be surprised if I end up with more than you. I'm fully expecting some mixing. I really believe the 15/81 corridor is going to jackpot. We'll see soon enough...

We all know you'll approach 30".

At least I have about 2 miles to spare on this map:

Usually it's a NAM run that is a complete miss, and often by a ridiculous amount. 6 hours later it comes back with 3.5" of QPF. GFS is also good for a suppressed, strung-out run or 2.

Progression, yes. We just need to slow it down a little now.

How can I not remember - 42" of snow in 6 days. That's a good way to break one's seasonal snow forecast in a week's time. While not my favorite storm, the blizzard of '96 produced 30.5" where I lived. That still ranks #1 all time for my greatest snowfall event on record.

@Blizzard of 93 isn't going to sleep for the next 5 nights. At that point he'll start looking at the storm on 1/3/2021.