Itstrainingtime

Every single time I've been missed the past couple of weeks I immediately think of that post that you made.

Yep. I've had your yearly total of rain just since May 1st BTW. And I've gotten missed repeatedly over the past 10 days.

From CTP: Southern/Southeastern PA/Lower Susquehanna Valley Farther south, this area is more removed from the jet-streak dynamics to the north. However, this region is closer to the deepening surface low with strong surface-925mb southerly theta-e advection directed into the southeastward advancing surface front. A tropical air-mass (depicted by 2-2.25" PWATs and low-mid 70s dew points) will coincide within a warm sector that becomes increasingly unstable (MUCAPE between 1,000-2,000 J/kg). It is worth noting that SST anomalies along the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast coasts are well above normal too, acting as an abnormally rich moisture source for southerly low-level flow to draw from. By this afternoon, low-level WAA into the front will support storms enveloping the region with additional storms from the Laurel Highlands/south central Alleghenies tracking east. Modest vertical wind shear aloft will also support organized clusters of storms, some of which will have the potential to backbuild and train between the I-81 and I-95 corridors into tonight. Latest 12Z HREF guidance shows 24-hr probabilities for >3" of rainfall are high (>70%) across southeast PA. Just as concerning is this same region sports 30-60% chances for >5" of rainfall with 24hr PMM/LPMM values close to the ensemble maxima approaching 8 inches.

Good point. Thoughts last week of temps approaching the century mark down here have ended up in the 93-95 range in reality. It helped it feel so much more refreshing to be outside.

Rain is SO close to me...and yet so far.

This sounds sorta ominous: .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... *Elevated risk of excessive rain with some higher end flooding impacts possible across east-central/southeastern PA Thursday SFC-850mb low pressure is progged to move along the southward sinking frontal zone which continues to trend slower with its equatorward progression. There also appears to be some enhanced large scale lift to support +RA in the form of height falls and right entrance region (RER) upper jet dynamics. High/efficient rain rates within low topped warm rain convection combined with ample deep layer moisture /1.5-2+" pwats/ will continue to support an increasingly elevated excessive rain/flash flood risk particularly across the southeastern portions of the area. Some model guidance is also showing an inverted trough axis on the NW side of the low track the could be a fulcrum point for heavy rain. WPC (along with neighboring offices LWX/PHI/BGM) discussed the possibility of upgrading the D2 ERO to a moderate risk for eastern PA with this cycle, but given lingering QPF detail uncertainty we decided to collectively stick with an "enhanced" level 2 (out of 4) risk area for now. We will continue to highlight the heavy/excessive rain and potential significant flood threat in the HWO and IDSS partner briefings.

I had a grand total of .26" of rain for the entire weekend. I was fringed or missed in every direction both Saturday and Sunday. (I got nothing yesterday, not even a drop)

Unfortunately, it also now appears that flood concerns are elevated on Thursday: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models show t-storms accompanying the southeastward moving front through CPA on Thursday. A wave of low pressure is now progged to move along the boundary, which has trended slower with its southward/southeastward progression. There also appears to be some enhanced large scale lift to support +RA in the form of right entrance region (RER) upper jet dynamics. High rain rates combined with ample deep layer moisture will continue to support an excessive rain/flash flood risk particularly across the southern tier of CPA on Thursday/D4. The slower southward movement may also delay north to south clearing, and we can`t rule out a stray shower lingering early Friday morning in southern tier/far southeast PA. That said, much of the area will be firmly in the dry/cooler sector by Friday afternoon. Behind the front, a comfortably cooler and refreshing airmass (much lower humidity) is poised to arrive just in time to begin the month of August. Slightly below average daytime highs 70-80F and lows 50-60F are forecast along with no rainfall through the first weekend of August. Dewpoints will plummet into the

CTP mentioned this morning that the SE counties will see Heat Indexes approach 100 today...the criteria for an advisory being issued is over 100. I suspect that the LSV will see advisories tomorrow and Wednesday. Also - they used the words "fall like weather" when looking ahead to the end of the week.

Just 0.26" of rain fell here overnight. Good lord this humidity...

Big time storm inbound - will it be a direct hit or a scraper? Mount Joy looks like it's about to get crushed. Again.

I'll take a more positive look - next week looks amazing. Last few days of the week look sunny with highs in the upper 70s and very low dewpoints.

.17" of rain yesterday from the evening storm.

11:15am and it's 89. Feels so much worse. Late next week can't come soon enough.

Yes - he's fine until he gets into trouble. Not sure if it's pitching from the stretch or if he simply puts pressure on himself to make perfect pitches to get out of jams. Regardless, that's been the recurring issue with him. Wheeler, Sanchez and Suarez are all pretty much unflappable. Luzardo needs to learn how to handle difficult situations. Every start isn't going to go smoothly. The very best pitchers still have those starts where everything is a struggle. Ranger has a reputation of being unflappable but he was clearly letting the Angels know on Sunday that he didn't have it. It was odd to see him showing so much frustration on the mound. With every start, Sanchez is turning into a bonafide ace. That dude's changeup is pure filth. When he puts it where he wants it (and he often does) it is unhittable.

Congratulations! That is wonderful news, and my very best to your entire family. Wishing your grandson many, many years of health and happiness. Warning: the fun goes by oh so quickly...we welcomed our first granddaughter back in January 2022. Can't believe she's already cruising towards her 4th birthday. Both mom and dad work so my wife and I enjoy a lot of time with our little girl. Next month Pappy is taking her on her 1st trip to Disney World. Can't wait.

Only managed a low of 65 down this way. I'm heading up PA Rt. 44 this weekend. I'll be very close to the Black Forest Inn if you know where that is.

Taking this a step further, SPC has the eastern US "under the gun" for repeated rounds of severe weather extending well into next week.

Yes indeed. I will remember this summer ultimately for the tropical humidity and rainfall. Both of which appear to be returning in the near future.

From MU: Here’s a fun little stat: there have only been 3, 90-degree days at @millersvilleu so far this month. However, the high temp has reached 89F on an additional 8 days. One single degree is separating us from having 20, 90-degree days so far this season. Instead, there have been 12.

.04" of rain fell at home yesterday. I was in Philadelphia watching a listless Phillies team get pounded to submission by a bad Angels team. Had a big time rainer just before scheduled first pitch. Obviously not sure how much fell but it was a heckuva lot more than .04".

.09" of rain since midnight.

Tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday look incredible. Temps in the 80s with dewpoints falling from the 60s into the upper 50s tomorrow and then mostly in the 50s (possibly upper 40s?!) by late Monday into Tuesday. I think we've earned the reprieve.

Good. I wasn't trying to be a jerk, either.

I think it would have been completely irresponsible if a watch hadn't been issued. At least down here, our flash flood threshold was .50" of rain in one hour. The potential for much, much more was very real.