Itstrainingtime

Yes it is, and thank you for validating my point. Appreciate it Tim!

(he's defending "us" here)

Umm...so how do you then explain all of the other 40s showing up that are many miles from the river? Look, I don't want to fight. But what you just stated...well, your implication is way off on this one.

Temp is up to 49. Still have not yet hit 50 here this week. Should happen momentarily. .13" of rain since midnight, 2 day total is .48"

Okay, he provided the visual. Pretty much the way I thought.

Ah, the ole' Pamela Anderson weather change. I'll admit...I don't know what that is. And I'm not sure I want to, either.

I've been thinking about it - really busy right now but I'll see what I can do in the coming weeks.

When do the rest of us get to see this "handbook" of yours?

Still just 46 in Maytown with dense fog.

When I saw the map that you posted and referenced the MA thread...one name came to mind. And for that kind of weather, I suppose we can will it into fruition...

Euro says "Congrats East Nantmeal Township"

First off, it's Chickies...if you're going to come snoop, at least get your snooping down right. Second, if you saw a sign out front that said "No Soliciting Please...We're Inside Enjoying a Nooner" - well... That was my neighbor's house.

The 45 on that map between Bainbridge and Columbia is pretty much where Maytown is - and that's exactly what it is at home right now...45 degrees.

Only snow here is piles - I'm surprised how dense the fog is. It is localized around Maytown/Marietta - once I got south of there, it became "ordinary" fog.

41 and very dense fog at home when I left for work 30 minutes ago. If it was dense earlier this morning, it's dense-er now. So far, an even .30" of rain has fallen.

He also said that the chances of a significant snow has diminished. He did not cancel snow altogether in any shape or form. Sometimes people read what they want to read, and honestly...vice versa.

Director of Met, I believe.

He did acknowledge that it might snow on Sunday night.

He might have been thinking this before today. I doubt he went into the weather center and suddenly thought "ah hell, I'm changing my mind today" - I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and guess this has been coming for some time.

Of course not...even the very best get it wrong from time to time. That said, I'm certainly a lot more concerned than I was 24 hours ago. He's as good as he is for a reason.

He seems to revel in it, too...

Sort of...but not really in the sense that it or "he" could fail - if you read his winter outlook, he clearly states that there was a boom/bust potential this winter. While Ninos are often snowy, some of our really crappy winters have come during Ninos. He crushed December and January - time will tell what happens next.

That was pretty much the last thing that I expected to read...especially how confident he seems to go along with it.

It was kind of a kick in the groin to read that - soured my day. Oh well. It's his opinion. It's a highly educated opinion, but could still be wrong.

MU's thoughts on the weekend storm and February: (he's thinking his cold and snowy February forecast will be a big fail) By Saturday afternoon, my attention will turn toward a developing storm system over the Deep South. The track, speed, and intensity of the storm system are presently highly uncertain, but odds favor it exiting the East Coast somewhere around the Delmarva Peninsula or New Jersey Sunday night. Skies will turn cloudy again Saturday evening, and more wet weather is a "good bet" later Saturday night through Sunday night. Temperatures will initially be way too high for any snow or sleet concerns, but a cold air mass draining southward out of New England could cause rain to change over to snow Sunday night. If this transition happens fast enough, then several inches of wet snow could fall across parts of the region. However, rain could just as easily end before any transition to wet snow. In this type of pattern, predictability has and will continue to be limited to a time span of 3-4 days. Thus, I'll post an update on and have a full analysis of Sunday's system at the end of the week. In the meantime.. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).. or an eastward-moving wave of convection between the Indian and western Pacific Oceans.. is currently in phase 6 and moved through phases 4 and 5 over the last 10 days. It will likely reach phase 7 by the weekend and may possibly stall there through the first 7-10 days of February. During El Niño, MJO activity in phases 4-7 often leads to a persistently mild and snowless pattern in the I-81 and I-95 corridors of the mid-Atlantic States in January and February (see below). There is usually a 1-week lag effect with MJO forcing across eastern North America, so effects of the recent MJO activity just began over the last 48 hours. In addition, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), or band of westerly winds enclosing a large pool of extremely cold air that develops 10-30 miles above the ground over the North Pole every winter, has become very strong and stable following its weakened state during the past 3-4 weeks. Instead of being stretched out and split into two pieces, it is now in the shape of a doughnut over the Arctic Circle and expected to remain near the North Pole or drift toward the Eurasian side of the globe by early February. A strong SPV is often associated with weaker storms and a less-amplified Jet Stream. To make a long story short, the odds are stacked against a significant snowfall or any more intrusions of Arctic air through at least the middle of February. As a warm-weather lover, I certainly won't complain, but this is admittedly a big change from my expectations for February in my Winter Outlook. I could choose to "go down with the ship," but there's no point in doing so when the writing is on the wall. In the words of the famous Kenny Rodgers, "Know when to fold em'.." -- Elliott