Itstrainingtime

Winds. I'm kind of nervous myself.

Holy toledo Blizz! Let's reel this sucker in!

Check out the Canadian. Super duper amped! Heavy snows extend way west of us.

The AI comes much closer to snowing on Bermuda than it does here. Storm is literally a couple hundred miles offshore.

We pass out from other contributors but the overall result is the same!

8"+ mean over just about the entire LSV.

Blizz spent all of that money on a hotel in center city and has been waiting outside for like 17 hours now. All of that and he's missing the parade because he just passed out.

Acceptable.

Understood. I'm here for the same reason. I just tend to give more weight elsewhere. Totally agree about WGAL - I think they are leaps and bounds ahead of the Harrisburg stations.

Someone pushed Elliott on X for his opinion on next week's event. Right now he's thinking a moderate event for Lanco.

I think that's accurate. And I'm admittedly the dissenter from that group. I maintain that a very good met trumps models the vast majority of the time because an excellent local met is going to give weight to models and then factor in nuances like I started mentioning in my post above that models simply miss. We've had countless storms that mixed in Lanco that not one single model picked up on.

Personally, I go with my localized climate and also 50+ years of history. I remember everything. After that amount of time and data collection, general trends start to emerge. I know that in Lanco we should never count on a clipper due to downsloping unless the track is roughly through NOVA. I know that big east coast storms generally mix here much faster and more often than any model will show...I learned that the hard way and also from Horst years ago. Someone questioned him why he was calling for sleet when no other forecaster or model showed it, his reply was they were all wrong because there's nothing to impede that flow off the ocean in our area. Things like that stick with me. And my notes. As far as actual forecasters, I do rely on MU the most but also factor in what some mets in here say. @MAG5035 is someone whom I trust and respect and heed his calls. Also, @MillvilleWx is another, and I think he was a disciple of Eric.

Yeah, a little further east than 0z but in the ballpark. Small changes aloft won't be sorted out for a few days and those subtleties will have big implications on the final result.

Jalen Hurts about to be introduced to Americanwx - he's going to be heading down Broad Street and wondering why this one random dude in the crowd has his phone extended high in the air, not to take pictures or video of Hurts, but instead with some mysterious map image full of blues, pinks and purples all along the eastern seaboard...

Not to be argumentative, but it actually looked to me like this had an opportunity to be a WHOLE lot better. The low was only about 1004mb off the east coast. It hadn't really bombed out on this run until it was gone. Edit: It definitely went nuclear after that!

Sigh - I literally just mentioned this yesterday, and here we go again...

MU Weather Center In terms of weather, it's shaping up to be a nasty #PresidentsDayWeekend. Periods of rain will dampen the LSV Sat eve through Sun AM before ending later Sun afternoon. Due to the ongoing #drought and absence of snowpack, #flooding won't be a concern. I expect 0.75-1.50" of rain.

MU Weather Center The talk of a "major snowstorm" late next week has merit. The MJO is in Phase 8, & we'll also have a ridge in the West & west-based, -NAO. All of this *could* add up to a bona fide Nor'easter. However, you can't shovel potential!

@sauss06 - there should be a new video coming from the guy in Mammoth...they picked up 55" so far from the current storm and it isn't finished yet: https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village Edit: and here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDIeaJAAjR8

Don't need much of a reason to take off and head to the beach.

I was trying to figure out why Blizz was so quiet when the runs were coming in last night and then I remembered he was perched on top of a light pole on Market Street in Philly.

Also, there was a very heavy burst of snow at home around 1:20 this morning. Near zero visibility for a couple of minutes. Totally unexpected.

Dear Central PA Weather Morning Crew: You're welcome. Thank me now or thank me later. This place was DEAD last evening...2 completely disjointed and meaningless convos going in our 2 threads centered on alcohol prices at sporting events and something related to Texas between the Windy guy from Harrisburg and the Snow Plow Driver from Dillsburg. Yes...Texas. We were talking about Texas man, we're talking about Texas. Texas. Not the Icon. Not the GFS. We're in here talking about Texas. We're talking about Texas. We're talking about Texas... Sensing this, I said to myself "you know what...you've been excited about next week's potential for a couple of weeks now. It's time to step up your game and do something about it." So, even though I needed to be in the office early, I stayed up until 1:30 this morning. I, yes I provided updates on the GFS. The GEM. The UKMET...and finally the Euro. I even posted a freaking snow map or two!!! I resurrected the threat next week after 18z went to hell. I brought it back to life. Now, let's go! Already this morning, models don't look as epic as they did overnight. Let's keep the mojo flowing here!

GFS, Euro, Ukmet and GEM all have huge east coast snows. Differences are where they jackpot...some to our south and some to our northeast. All of them have maxima measured in feet.

Clean sweep by the overnight major league models - Euro is a solid 7-14" for much of our area, with parts of MD, VA & DE dealing with 18-24".