Itstrainingtime

Yes, you are correct...at the same time, this map does not include the entirety of next week's storm.

Despite the area's first real winter threat of the season, CTP is already sounding the horn for next week: (and a warning to @canderson to go on high alert:) .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 03/00Z update...winter storm system for next Tue/Wed is fcst to be much stronger and track farther to the west - which puts mixed precip (snow-ice to rain transition) squarely in play. The other key impact with this storm will be strong winds with MSLP anomalies (sub 990mb) reaching 3-4SD below the mean.

That is one wound up beast for next week - this is just through 7am Wednesday:

I really, really do hope he is wrong...but until he is wrong, he isn't. I've seen models/forecasts for a lot more snow than this disappear with much less time remaining before onset. I'm not negative, but I am jaded. Many, many years of last second failures has taught me to assume nothing when it comes to snow. Until it's on the ground, that is.

So you're saying that Elliott, who is a great met, is totally wrong when he said that the models do NOT fit the pattern?

Well, a lot of crews plow at like 2" now, so sure.

MU finally said something about the weekend: "snow lovers should keep expectations in check" Also indicated that the pattern does NOT match the model outputs. Detailed analysis tomorrow.

It's not a cop out, it's a well penned and thought out explanation. And accurate.

12z and 18z GFS couldn't be much more different. Maybe some people "get" the same amount of snow, but the storm's evolution is vastly different. And different in a positive way for us SE folks.

I know that you know what I'm about to say: I have been following all of these southern storms all fall. I invest in all weather. A lot of these storms have ended up hundreds of miles farther N/NW than anticipated 4-5 days out. And it's only Tuesday- next storm is still 4 days out. What happened previously does not guarantee anything with our next storm...but there is a real "chance" that this could end up skunking us. Which is precisely why I wanted those stupid snow maps showing pretty colors over VA. The inevitable move north was coming. And I fear, based on recent and distant history that this isn't done moving north/west.

LNS lost 6.1" on the latest Euro.

I lost that much...

Agree with you. I just meant that your area down through South Mountain typically jack with a storm track as depicted currently.

Canadian not very good for us SE peeps.

That's probably the most realistic part of that map.

I am all about snow cover. Normally, I would prefer 4" of snow that lasted 2 weeks than 12" of snow that was gone in 3-5 days. These aren't normal times. I haven't shoveled in 2 years. If we get 6-12" of snow that is completely washed away a few days later, so be it. I'll be thrilled to put up a big crooked number.

Good reminder - it will be Wednesday before we know anything with some level of confidence.

That's exactly what I noticed. 0z was better.

The only thing that fails more than snow is my Birds.

Still some hints of a Miller B evolution. Always makes me nervous.

Rain/snow line looks like it's riding I95. A little closer than the previous run.

100% on your warm air intrusion concerns. I am 90% worried about that and 10% about suppression.

No...that's Alabama and Shitigan.

You may be right. But I still would rather be in our position now then holding on to the SE edge of snowfall. Where were we 5 days out in 1983? 1996? 2009? 2010? 2016? We were on the outside looking in. All 5 of those came north and clocked us. Sure, no guarantee that will happen this time but I'm actually more optimistic now than I've been in years.

I was somewhat encouraged to see the general tick south in guidance overnight. I'm in the camp of us being too far north at this point as opposed to watching it bleed towards Canada.