Itstrainingtime

I hate to keep talking about "the storm after the storm after the storm", BUT - Looking at the GFS, and using MU's graphic that I posted earlier...me wonders if next weekend's low ends up becoming the 50/50. You can see the ridge axis moving onshore on the GFS, also as MU's graphic depicted, so my guess is that next weekend's storm probably does cut but sets the stage for the potential winter storm to follow later on during the week of the 15th. More likely, I'm wrong.

The low, at least on the GFS compared to yesterday is somewhat weaker. Hopefully that continues, otherwise I'm right with you on this one being a high impact wind event.

Canadian is a Lanco Letdown and Rouzerville Raking all in one.

This is MU at the most excited that I've seen him since he replaced Horst. Period.

I think it's going to be about the rates - if it can come in as a true thump, we score ourselves a couple/few inches. If it's light to moderate, we lose.

MU getting antsy about the time period he's been excited about: (from last evening) I'm not saying this will happen, but tonight's run of the ECMWF model depicts the "Grandaddy" of East Coast winter storm patterns by mid-month! We have it all here: a west-based -NAO, 50/50 Low, & #JETSTREAM ridge moving into the West. Things would get wild in the week to follow!

For those that are familiar with Mark Ellinwood, he posted his snowfall prediction map in the MA thread about 10-15 minutes ago. Always liked his maps - clean, easy to read, and most importantly...usually very accurate.

Well...there's @Mount Joy Snowman NW Lancaster county battle zone he predicted earlier...

One thing I'm seeing is that the "thump" only lasts roughly 3 hours or so, and once that initial thump moves east, we mix.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on Tuesday. I brought this up yesterday as it seems like a very high impact event.

We've had how many snow maps posted in this very thread? Shoot, a few days ago, some of those maps were suggesting that I was in line for 17 -20". And people wonder why I despise maps. I know that they're going to get into the hands of people that will exploit them and use them to rile up the unknowledgeable public. I was asked to schedule a Teams call for tomorrow at noon to discuss our operating schedule for the weekend. Associates have been asking if they're going to be held to the attendance policy if they can't get themselves dug out to get to work. Sigh.

I've been asked in the past where I get my thoughts from - and I always say "history". It matters. A lot.

Not much time this morning, but had to comment on this - terrific post. A post made using 3 different tools to get to your numbers: 1) Basic met knowledge (ocean water temps, screaming SE winds, etc.) 2) History - history tells us SO much 3) Current guidance For those reasons, I love your post. Specifically, your amounts. Based on the above 3 criteria, your numbers reflect that perfectly. My honest fear here...I've seen a few people say in the past 12-24 hours that guidance won't move much more. Oh, yes it still can. It's still "only" Thursday morning. It's not unreasonable to think that this system can't move 50-75 miles in either a positive or negative direction for us. And with that, what worries me most is #2 above. I'm just not convinced that this isn't going to trend even worse for a lot of us. Time will tell. Again, great post by you!

Midwest/Great Lakes low was farther NW on the most recent run. Need that low to keep it's distance.

Introducing...Henry Margusity. As of yesterday he had all of us at 12-18". LOL

This is important and I agree. Column can be cooled with dynamic rates.

25% of Lanco gets less than 1". MU special.

Euro is rough.

Very nice!

1" - 1.25" of QPF for many in southern PA on the RGEM. A wee bit different than the NAM.

NAM trying really hard to make Elliott as iconic as this legend: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfebpLfAt8g I remember this game like it was yesterday. Fortunately, ABC showed it on their end of day scoreboard show about 12 times. It ain't over until...it's over. And he isn't wrong until...he's wrong. He'll still likely be wrong...we shall see.

Consensus seems to want to keep it in one thread now. Going back to 2021 and before, we often had dedicated storm threads. We haven't had any storms worth a thread the past couple of years...but we had a nice storm-specific thread in 2021.

We better hope this is wrong because we're getting WAY too close to the dreaded cutoff line that I always worry about.

Speaking of snow droughts - interesting data from the Sierra village of Mammoth Lakes. Even some of the snowiest areas of the country are hurting badly this season - As of 1/3/2023: 262" of snow had fallen for the season (January would end with 397") As of 1/3/2024: 13" of snow has fallen for the season (12" of which fell yesterday)

I'd say we're both right.