Itstrainingtime

If we get into any kind of significant rates the temp will fall.

I honestly expected the maps to look a good better than they do. The AI Euro was definitely wetter.

Euro just made a not insignificant move in a positive direction. To clarify, it's much wetter in the LSV.

@Mount Joy Snowman https://www.weather.gov/ctp/2009-02-03-04-Heavy-Snow

The area of snow itself wasn't isolated, the 12" amount absolutely was, and it was centered in the heart of Manheim Township. Amounts tapered as you went both N and S from that area and most of those locations were more in the 4-8" range. @pasnownut said above he got 7" in Akron, for example.

It stretched from the northern part of the county near Ephrata right down 501 through Lititz, MT, Lancaster and down 30 east way. We're thinking of the same event, I thought it was an inverted trough but maybe that was just conventional thinking? I recently found the article but I can't now either. If and when I do find it, I will post it. I want to say it was between 2008 and 2015?

I 100% agree with this.

I was recalling that event in my mind on my way to work today... As I remember it, there wasn't any forecast of snow in Lanco the night of the event. I had pretty much tuned out the weather that evening as there wasn't anything for me to be watching out for. I went to bed, I remember looking out our window and seeing the moon shining brightly. Just a normal, chilly mostly clear night in Maytown. I had no idea what was happening 15 miles to my east... Next morning, I'm driving to work. Still completely clueless. I get to the bottom of Chickies Hill at the 441/30 interchange and there's PennDot truck with a plow sitting there. I'm laughing because A, it was a sunny morning, B, the ground was completely brown, and C, well, it was PennDot doing "what PennDot does best." I get to work and after several minutes I start getting messages that colleagues in Lancaster and surrounding environs are going to be late or won't be in at all. Great, the flu bug hit, I'm thinking. Then one of my best friends from childhood who works with me and obviously knows I'm a weather guy runs in and says "can you believe what happened in Lancaster last night...isn't that wild that they got that much snow and no one else got anything?" I go to MU's weather page and there's Horst with a picture of him standing outside of his MT house measuring 12" of snow. A foot! And 15 miles west, I had clear skies. Probably the only time in my life I felt like I was living in a snowbelt area and was just outside one of those bands. I'm still stunned to this day that it happened in Lancaster County/

I honestly wished that I felt as confident as you...but I do not. Unless, and we certainly might, but if we aren't under that inverted trough I fear that we're looking at snow showers that have a hard time doing anything until Sunday night. At least as far as ground truth goes, right now I'm thinking about a 65% or so chance we end up with 3" or less. Maybe a 30ish% chance of 3-6" and a 5% chance we exceed 6". Nothing that I'm seeing looks conducive to heavy snowfall outside of the GFS. I was hoping for some notable steps from other models today at 12z but that really didn't happen. Edit: If your casa ends up squarely under the inverted trough, 6" becomes a valid goalpost. Problem is, only a relatively small percentage of us will be. Double Edit: Meant to say 65% of 3" or less to make my math actually consistent.

I don't recall the last time I've seen an inverted trough show up on so many models so far in advance - someone will approach warning criteria snowfall from that alone.

Where in the world did they come from? You don't have any rain at all in your forecast. Wow. Radar looks like spring up your way.

CMC brings the Norlun Trough feature further east into the western part of the LSV. They are notorious for being both very fickle and can carry quite an impressive punch. If it materializes, that's probably the ticket to a 6" snowfall this far west.

I think the chances of "us" getting a significant (6"+)snowfall is quite low...probably no higher than 20%. A light to moderate snowfall is quite possible. And that would be sans coastal which is what the Euro really isn't interested in. So while I would tend to agree with you, this is more complicated than even the Euro can get a good handle on. At any rate, like I said about agreeing with you, it would be nice to have consensus on something. And we might not have that (good or bad) for at least another 24 hours.

GFS is keeping hopes alive in the 0z suite...

Actually, no...I was talking about getting 73" from the next storm alone! (The 12z CMC showed a bullseye of 73" over the Delmarva)

He has been doing this regularly for weeks now in both the Central PA and the Philly threads. He's been asked to stop and and even coached to make better posts. Unfortunately, this is what he continues to do. The vast majority of posters in those 2 subs now have him on ignore.

73" would at least get us to an A-.

ICON, GFS and CMC all dropped a big fat turd tonight. Amazing how quickly everything was coming together early today and even more quickly how things have soured tonight. Maybe they come back? One thing I've noticed - there's an additional piece of energy showing up tonight that swings through early Saturday. If that comes to fruition it's lights out. We won't have the separation needed for any trailing energy to come up and get us as the flow dampens out behind the Saturday thing.

I think this would qualify as heavy snow: https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

GFS is reintroducing Boxing Day nightmares for me - what an epic bomb for the immediate coast though. A couple of inches for the LSV, a couple of feet for the eastern seaboard.

@sauss06 and anyone else who's interested:

That was a little discouraging.

Our "friend" weighs in...I guess he's saying there's a chance, which is something: All eyes are on the Sunday/Monday #winterstorm threat, but models are all over the place with respect to timing, track and intensity of the system. Essentially all scenarios.. from a major storm to a a "mix event" to plain rain to no storm.. are currently on the table. Unlike this past weekend, this system certainly has much bigger potential and should not be written off. However, you cannot shovel potential, and no specific details should be given until Thurs/Fri at the earliest. Given the chaos, I'll be writing my SWD tomorrow.

One more storm and I'll give this winter an A. As is, it's a B. Lots of cold but significantly below normal snowfall.

I've been following Mammoth's weather almost daily since my visit a few years ago. They desperately needed this storm, it hasn't snowed of much significance since right around New Year's. That's the thing about out there though - all it takes is a good week or so and they can pile it quickly. Despite the weeks without snow, this storm will put them over 200" for the season. Far short of normal but it's a start. They need to build up the water table now, otherwise fire season later this year might be grim.