Itstrainingtime

Elliott didn't seem too upset to pen this today: Monday's #snow threat has essentially vanished for northern MD, southeastern PA & the LSV. The Canadian high pressure system is simply too strong & now modeled to settle into NY State, ultimately suppressing the weak disturbance. Large-scale subsidence does not equal precip!

I truly appreciate the respect but Jesus is a stretch. I'm just Mike. But I'm an old Mike. LOL

Point is - it's going to get quite warm next week. The vast majority of people will be in full-on spring mode. Quite likely for good reason... But don't completely bury winter. History has shown that it can roar back after it seemed like it was gone.

That one was sort of painful here. And somewhat reminiscent of what we just experienced. The Susquehanna separated the haves (east) from the have nots. (west) I lived in Centerville and measured 3.4". Areas to my east did MUCH better.

You would have loved that storm. Imagine, the last week of April with legit SN+ in the middle of the day, temps in the mid 20s and howling winds. The rarest of winter days, and it came on April 6th. Snow was powder, too. I remember it was really cold after the storm but the snow had no chance up against the April sun. Areas that were drifted over held up for nearly a week but outside of that, it was toast the following day. School was closed the day of the storm and the day after. At least fine, rural and agricultural schools like Penn Manor were.

This is from my weather notebook: I measured 8.8" just south of Mountville here in Lancaster county. Rain began on Monday night, April 5th with temps in the low 40s and by daybreak on the 6th I had heavy snow and very strong winds which created true blizzard conditions. The 8.8" of snow fell in a 7 hour period as temps crashed into the mid 20s. We missed 2 full days of school and had a 2 hour delay on the 3rd day after the event. Winds were measured at over 50 mph in the county. Dad said we never had anything like that before in April during his lifetime and that I would never see it again. 43 years later, he's still right. Here's the snow map. I was just inside the southern edge of the good stuff. Hard to believe based on this that you didn't do better. It wasn't an elevation dependent storm, temps were in the 20s throughout the snow portion.

April 1982 was an incredible storm. Nothing in my 60 years on earth is even close I'm that month.

Interesting. The temperature gradient in the midwest is oriented north to south like we'd might expect, but in the east it's oriented west to east. Is that simply due to the deep snowpack in the northeast?

"Feels" like spring is imminent based on the vibe of the thread. Posts are slowing down noticeably. TBD if we get something later in March.

Just read a comment from MillvilleWx in the MA thread that expectations need to be in check for early next week - top end amounts will be in the 2-4" range at best, and that's for those who are in the bullseye. He admitted he's not invested in it and he is moving on to spring.

GFS now essentially has moved completely south of the M/D line.

8.8" for the "main event" - that's what I was looking for, thank you! Based on everything that I was reading while I was away I went with 8" for the storm. Assuming that I might have done a wee bit better I might adjust up to 9".

I wasn't sure if I should laugh or thank you for this so I did neither. You know, I'm guilty of assuming our average is a bit higher than those numbers. In my head I consider average around 30" because i think that's what it used to be. I've got incomplete data this winter due to me being in Florida in January - what did you record for your total for that event?

Yes sir. If no more snow fell here, I'd grade this winter as a B. Just can't give it more than that when finishing below normal snowfall. Temp grades out at an A, snow cover grades an A, but total snowfall right now is a C-. That averages out to a solid B. One more significant (4"+) snow moves me up to a B+ and anything over 6" probably moves this to at least an A-. Now...comparing the reality of this winter vs expectations going in? It's already easily an A. No way did I foresee weeks of continuous snow cover this year.

GFS has been moving south on every run over the past 2 days with Monday's system. That trend needs to stop. As is, warning level snows are confined to south of the turnpike.

I think early next week looks pretty darn good for something wintry. Details are days away from being figured out.

Especially if you're south of the track.

I mentioned yesterday that Elliott seemed interested in Monday. He is, but he's also insisting that it will be a light to possibly moderate event. GFS snow maps are way overdone. We shall see!

Fortunately, NYC cashed in a bit and got an inch or two on top of the 2' they got on Monday.

As expected, no snow fell overnight. Low was 25 but it's already up to 34.

It took 18" of snow/sleet together to keep a solid snow cover for a full week after 3/13/1993. If it wasn't for all of that sleet it would have been gone in 2-3 days.

The "snow hater" met from a local university seems completely out for Thursday but does seem interested in early next week. Interesting.

High is in the perfect location for Monday's potential event. We'll need that look to hold to get what we want. Precarious situation with that but at least we're not worried about a redeveloper type of thing.

My Orioles and Phillies tickets were uploaded to my MLB Ballpark App last week. Let's go! We better enjoy this season...

Yep, and that was my point. Despite it being a dark, overcast day yesterday, there was enough solar radiation to do it's damage on my snow cover. When the sun angle is lowest the radiation is really mitigated. That's why I covet holiday snow...it coincides with the best staying power season.