Itstrainingtime

As @MAG5035 just alluded to, CTP is confident in the map they released below for western PA. They are far less confident in what happens in the SE overnight tomorrow.

So we're tracking a potential snowfall arriving in less than 36 hours and yet are bickering/sarcastic over what the high temp will be 13 days from now? Come on guys. We're better than this. And both of you are likely getting snow tomorrow/early Sunday as well.

That storm you mention on the 26th was one on the list of heartaches in my life. After getting three 16"+ storms earlier in the season, that storm on the 26th was looking like it had the potential to not only be storm #4 to deliver 16"+ but possibly end up the biggest of them all, but left most of us in the LSV squarely in the screw zone. It hurt, but what had already happened earlier in the season took some of the sting off: https://www.weather.gov/phi/02252010wss

I wish that I could actually help by answering your question though...what CTP is saying is "late evening" arrival?

Are you in that good of running/endurance shape? That's a pretty long run, especially round trip.

@Mount Joy Snowman you will appreciate this I'm sure (and so may some others as well): At 8:00AM on February 11th 2010 I had an average snow depth in my yard of 41". That was by far the deepest snow cover I've seen in my life. February 11th was a sunny day with a high of 32.7 degrees. My snowpack at 6:00PM that evening was 32". After a sunny and 36 degree day on February 12th my snowpack was at 20" at 6:00PM that evening. In less than 48 hours I lost over half of my snowpack without the temp even reaching 40 degrees. A combination of compaction, sublimation and melting destroyed the record snow cover. Much is argued about every year about snow accumulating in the last half of winter due to sun angle. I think it's been proven that rates will overcome that well into March as long as temps are also supportive. Having said that, LOSING snow cover is a huge deal on sunny days in February due to that very sun angle. It's very hard to maintain snow cover unless there is ice built into the pack. This is where a period of sleet can do wonders for us if we can get past the fact that it's diminishing our accumulating snow...in the long run, that sleet is giving our white gold staying power. I always try and remember that when heartache sets in with the onset of pingers... At any rate, that is why I covet snow at this time of year.

Same! I just had a hard time figuring out how to say so without offending anyone. As @pasnownutsaid, it's "warm" the majority of the year. I want my cold when it "should" be cold, and I especially get frustrated when it's warm during what I consider to be peak snow climo. Yes, I know that historically February is our snowiest month. But I'm talking about staying power...snow in December/early January is best when we can tap into the lower sun angle. We are squarely into the time period when I want snow the most.

GFS is fugly. Hope it's wrong. I hope after the upcoming thaw we can get back in the freezer by the end of the year. I know a lot of people hate dry and cold...I get it, but I hate warm when it's supposed to be cold. God knows we have many months of warm weather.

That matches up very well with the report I got from my friend here at work - he is just north of Rt. 6 and I want to say about 8 miles south of Coudersport? Edit: I see that Rt. 6 sort of runs through Coudersport...well, he said he's just north of Rt. 6 but he also said he's in the middle of nowhere...so maybe 8 miles east or west.

What's the current snowpack where you go?

Ukie looks solid for those who've been on outside looking in so far this season.

Loving all of the wintry scenes being posted. So far I'm living vicariously through them.

It is...but I don't like being near the southern edge...

I laughed.

I have a colleague who returned to the office yesterday from Potter County - said he left with just about 10" OTG and had a low the other morning of -16.6. He wanted to know if that was cold enough to prompt me to wear a jacket.

I just want to say that you have a knack for taking pictures that captures the true essence of the season in which you're taking them. This is another beautiful shot.

I would be thrilled with a 2-4" advisory event with a couple of cold days to follow. December snow is my favorite.

Rain and 37 here at the office. 34 at home with some sleet mixing in.

Sunday's potential is showing some signs of coastal enhancement in eastern PA - have to admit, I don't hate this look:

He probably is but it also goes directly against his Winter Outlook which was for the worst of winter to occur between mid December and mid January...

Well...yuck: @MUweather I'm becoming convinced that this persistently cold pattern ends by the middle of next week. The MJO may just stay in the COD & have very little influence on the pattern over the next few weeks. The SPV will also rapidly strengthen after mid-month & remain strong in Jan. Additionally, ensemble models show a major retraction of the Pacific Jet between ~Dec 17-22. As a result, a massive Bering Sea ridge develops & stays in place for weeks. The Bering Sea ridge often precedes an eastern U.S. warmup & flareup of the Southeast Ridge by 6-10 days.

I can't, I only saw some very light rain/sprinkles as I mentioned earlier. Also - there is ZERO ice on the river from Columbia the entire way down to TH. Nothing. Not even on the banks. I was surprised given the reports up in the Harrisburg area.

I left for work at 8:30 (don't judge, I have a late meeting today) and it was 34 with a few sprinkles falling at the house. My low yesterday morning was 12.

MU on the potential weekend clippers: The numerical computer models are having a tough time figuring out the progression & evolution of the two potential clipper-type systems & subsequent "light snow" events between Friday-Sunday. Intensity, timing & tracks are changing drastically from run-to-run, but one thing's certain: both will be small & relatively weak systems & produce narrow swaths of accumulating snow. There's no guarantee either will take the right track for snow in northern MD or southern PA, but the Sat night-Sun systems provides the better chance.

Last night actually got colder than guidance in a lot of locations. Longer term, there is probably some merit to your post.