Itstrainingtime

I would be thrilled with a 2-4" advisory event with a couple of cold days to follow. December snow is my favorite.

Rain and 37 here at the office. 34 at home with some sleet mixing in.

Sunday's potential is showing some signs of coastal enhancement in eastern PA - have to admit, I don't hate this look:

He probably is but it also goes directly against his Winter Outlook which was for the worst of winter to occur between mid December and mid January...

Well...yuck: @MUweather I'm becoming convinced that this persistently cold pattern ends by the middle of next week. The MJO may just stay in the COD & have very little influence on the pattern over the next few weeks. The SPV will also rapidly strengthen after mid-month & remain strong in Jan. Additionally, ensemble models show a major retraction of the Pacific Jet between ~Dec 17-22. As a result, a massive Bering Sea ridge develops & stays in place for weeks. The Bering Sea ridge often precedes an eastern U.S. warmup & flareup of the Southeast Ridge by 6-10 days.

I can't, I only saw some very light rain/sprinkles as I mentioned earlier. Also - there is ZERO ice on the river from Columbia the entire way down to TH. Nothing. Not even on the banks. I was surprised given the reports up in the Harrisburg area.

I left for work at 8:30 (don't judge, I have a late meeting today) and it was 34 with a few sprinkles falling at the house. My low yesterday morning was 12.

MU on the potential weekend clippers: The numerical computer models are having a tough time figuring out the progression & evolution of the two potential clipper-type systems & subsequent "light snow" events between Friday-Sunday. Intensity, timing & tracks are changing drastically from run-to-run, but one thing's certain: both will be small & relatively weak systems & produce narrow swaths of accumulating snow. There's no guarantee either will take the right track for snow in northern MD or southern PA, but the Sat night-Sun systems provides the better chance.

Last night actually got colder than guidance in a lot of locations. Longer term, there is probably some merit to your post.

Yes indeed, and I mentioned that exact thing last week. This past week or so has been a step back in time.

Yeah, too much cold is; well, too much for legit snow opportunities. We are seeing that play out currently with the bouts of southern snows. It was fascinating watching the snow in VA get shunted south throughout the day yesterday as the arctic air ambushed the state from north to south.

There is another system moving through the mid-Atlantic today with more snow - beautiful winter scene in central VA right now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgkdREYOfw0

Sure is! I'm currently at 26.2/10 with a real feel of 13.

You enjoy it as well - our kids ages range from 23 up to 31.

Congratulations Hoosier nation. What a monkey removed from their backs. 58 years in the making.

Just seems hard to imagine we get through the next few weeks without all of us getting some snow. But we've been snakebit in recent years which leaves me feeling a bit jaded. Still, I'll roll with this pattern.

Yep, just came back to say that I have a cartopper!

Got some very light snow action here in Maytown. 26 degrees.

Rain is bad too when so many others in the thread are enjoying snow...

One common theme (at least it seems this way) that continues this season for southern tier folks is snow falling both north and south of us before we get into the action. Some nice pics coming out of MD/VA this morning. The sky certainly has the snow look down here. Reminds me very much of 1970s/early 1980s winters when areas south repeatedly cashed in while I wallowed in my tears.

Thanks! Getting it exactly right was pure luck. Being in the ballpark was somewhat easier by expecting the winds and clouds to have a direct influence on the temp. It just felt like guidance and forecasts were way too aggressive on how cold it was going to get. I sorta felt bad about missing your backyard's temp by 5 degrees until I realized that I nailed MDT on the button...and that's the only one that matters, right?

Yes indeed...I just feel like a combo of temps almost always failing to get as cold as predicted, an ongoing breeze plus cloud cover coming in later will cap it. I was going to say 19...we'll see!

I'll predict a low of 21 for MDT. You will get down to 17.

Yes sir, the pattern has not been conducive for large storms. It could occur but the odds heavily go against that. The LSV is often caught in a "dead zone" in this type of pattern...flat southern waves that target VA and the Carolinas and stronger systems that cut and bring us mixing storms or plain rain. For those of us along the southern tier that essentially whiffed on Tuesday, we're going to need some help this winter. I feel like odds are in our favor that we score a couple of times along the way.

MU weighs in on the diminishing snow chances: MJO activity in Phase 8 and a weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) will continue to support unseasonably cold conditions, on average, through the end of December. As for snow, the risk is "cold & dry". However, this pattern has a shelf life, & I expect a major January Thaw.