The Iceman

Let’s bring it on home lots of ways this can go wrong… but it’s looking right now like 1-3” region wide with the potential for maybe more or nothing. With the event 36 hours out, I think it’s safe now to say there will be an event though. Final amounts tbd. I’m trying to manifest 3.6” though to get to 30” on the year. 48F right now.. cooking this afternoon. Outside in a T shirt lol

Just another wrinkle like Newman said is that accumulations are going to be rate dependent. It’s cooking out there today, temp here is 48F. A long duration light event won’t do, we will really need rates for it to accumulate. Timing is on our side being overnight. I think 1-3” is a safe forecast for now, bust potential high on both ends though. It won’t surprise me if I have 6” Monday morning or it’s raining lol

This still has all the makings of a rug pull, I think we have all said that since early week, but damn if I’m not getting sucked in…

stolen from the mid atlantic forum... euro AI EPS trending cooler as well and backs up the OP. It'll be fun to watch until 18z

Pretty crazy spread

If there was one model I would want vs everyone it's the Euro AI. It's been killing it this winter. However, it has been very erratic with this event, I don't think I've seen it make this big of a swing in the mid range like this. Probably not done changing, but I am intrigued it came on board. With such a thread the needle look, odds are against it, but there are definite paths to snow. You could also look at the Euro AI as leading the way as it was the first one to keep things suppressed and finally all the other models trended to it and it ticks north. 18z will be telling if this was just a blip.

If you keep saying that's all she wrote for winter, eventually you'll be right because that's the nature of the seasons. However, just want to point out you were saying winter was cooked in January before our coldest stretch in 10 years... definitive statements in long range forecasting is fools errand.

Thoughts unchanged. This one will take a miracle to snow outside of n and w.

Ensembles in this range over any OP. However, ensembles argue more for a Euro AI solution imo. I don't see this one cutting if that ridging on the 500 MB is legit over NE canada. Now with that you risk a sheared out mess or squash. Cold air is also marginal. I don't know, there's a lot going against it. Seems like blocking either eases up north and we rain or it doesn't and it's squashed south again. I'd rather it cut than be squashed tbh, there would definitely be flooding issues next weekend if something like the euro OP plays out.

I'm above normal on the entire season so I don't know what's slipping away. If you can't be happy during this winter, time to move away no offense

It’s the rebound storm. -NAO and ao are surging towards neutral around that time, like you said if the confluence holds we snow, and probably snow big. I will say the models have tended to overplay the weakening of the NAO and AO ridging in the long range all year long. This is the pattern change storm, I don’t expect any model to have a hold on it until at least mid week. I like the look on the Euro AI though and especially the ensembles in the 500 means.. we run the risk of raining but the pattern is ripe for a big juicy qpf storm which is well needed either way…

keep the trips coming!! I'm liking this

KDIX being down is really putting a damper on my weenie radar hallucinations

bro what? Euro is a textbook thump to light sleet/frz rain. Almost the same storm as two weeks ago.

The gfs is just not a serious model. Look at 00z last night to 12z today for the 11-12th… only about 1000 mile difference with the low

AI EPS still likes the 15-17th period.. if you are referring to the 11-12th, that's another northern stream clipper that changes every 6 hours... it's going to change every 6 hours..

I'm just glad to know we can still do long sustained cold in these parts... I was getting worried that transient cold was the new norm.

HRRR really weenies it up for tomorrow night

One storm at a time... like Birds mentioned yesterday, I'm excited for my coating to an inch early sat morning, it's trending better across all guidance.

The guy he punched deserved it...

Yeah but that day in the mid 40s is going to feel like 70!

That 14-16th threat has teleconnection support too... As me and Steve have been saying, many of our big ones historically come on the rebound of long duration -AO/-NAO/+PNA patterns but it still requires the right timing. I'm liking the long range threat though, definitely something to start tracking.

500 MB on the EPS and GEFS screams thump to ice/rain imo but obviously a wide range of outcomes possible at this range. With the west based NAO block showing up in that timeframe, any storm is going to have difficulty cutting to our west.

34F, legit felt nice out during my lunch walk especially in the sun.

I don't live and die with every model run...especially not the GFS. I check in once or twice a day usually after 12z in quiet periods like this. 11-14th period looks even more interesting today than it did yesterday imo. People also need to stop looking at the shitty GFS... Euro flexes the SE ridge in the day 10 like the GFS but we've seen that be overdone all year long. Euro AI at 6z was close to a decent miller b on the 10-11th followed by 2 more threats after that. Mid month looks like the precip opens up, whether or not we have the cold in place will be TBD, but it will be lurking close by. I don't think the pattern in that timeframe screams all snow, but it definitely looks wintry imo. I also would not sleep on Friday night/sat morning, would not be surprised if someone gets a quick inch or two at all.