The Iceman

That cell in central bucks quickly went supercellular. I’d expect a severe thunderstorm warning on it soon

Great write up Newman, was hoping to hear your thoughts I’m really liking my backyard we are in a great spot for instability and shear.

Lots of lightning outside of the storms, just had a really close strike by my house and we are a good 20-25 miles from the rain

Yes, that was also a very messy convective day in the morning but it didn’t matter because the deep layer shear was in place. Very similar set up.

Sounds like a tornado watch is incoming… pretty strong wordage in the Mesoscale discussion: DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating of a very moist air mass is ongoing across the discussion area as of 1645z, contributing to moderate/pockets of strong surface-based instability. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage across the higher terrain, and along a north-south confluence zone across southern PA south into northern VA, during the next few hours. As coverage continues to increase and low-level lapse rates steepen, the potential for damaging gusts will increase across the discussion area this afternoon and early evening. Additionally, low-level shear will remain locally enhanced in the vicinity of a warm front across southeast PA/southern NJ. Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercell structures, and the risk for tornadoes, potentially strong, will be maximized in this area.

With that main system going northeast of the city this morning, there should be a boundary set up right across SE PA and SNJ. Actually looking like one of the better non tropical tornado threats in a while. There’s going to ample instability in place for areas that miss the rain this morning which was my main concern going in. I’m debating going out to chase later if it develops how I think.

5% tor probs tomorrow.... actually a pretty interesting severe set up if we can avoid crapvection.

ensembles and OP's are showing a stalled out front situation towards the end of the month. right now it stalls slightly off shore with several waves of LP riding along the front. A lot of times the models are too progressive pushing fronts through this time of the year so could be something to watch. Almost all of the ensembles have prolific rain totals just offshore but would not take much for that parade of lows to come inland. Regardless, it looks much more active again beginning this weekend. It's funny, I went away for 2 weeks and before I left it was hot and dry then we had all that rain while I was gone and nothing since I've been back home. Starting to feel rain cursed lol

I just got back from the low country south carolina for 2 weeks so the humidity honestly doesn't feel that bad compared to down there lol it is hot though! Side note, I'm not asthmatic but I'm noticeably breathing heavier when doing activity already and my eyes are very irritated. Be careful out there everyone, I think it's only supposed to get worse today and tomorrow.

That cell hit a force field as it approached lower bucks. Picked up only .10”

Thanks for the information Mike

Anyone else having trouble getting on the weather.gov site? side note, as extreme as this heat event looks, more interesting to me is long range, afterwards doesn’t look at that hot. Usually these heat events are harbingers of above average months but this looks relatively short lived. Will be interesting to see the final anomalies for July. With how extreme of a start we will have, a +1 or +2F month would be cool honestly

Somehow got nothing but sprinkles from that cluster of storms.

We really need Monday to deliver or it's going to get bone dry again. The 2" in 3 hours was good on Sunday but most of that ran off as opposed to saturating the soil. Everything is already drying out again. 06z Euro and euro AI are a significant cutback for Monday with most of the heavy stuff going north of the CWA. Seems like we are stuck in a pattern where everything either slides N or S of us.

SPC majorly cut back at day 2. I expect another cut back honestly. Timing is very poor for the area. Looking like a dry frontal passage for most now

2.10" last night. We got trained on from 10:30 - 12:30. Lots of wind damage around the township too. Several trees down.

80% pops for tonight… all respect but I just don’t see it. Looking like scattered showers at best. vegetation in lower bucks looks mid August. Really need the next front to bring some rain. Only at .4” this month.

30% wind probs again today Nothing last night imby other than some drizzle. Not measurable though. Cool light show though.

30% wind probs today and tomorrow for most of the area... decent soaking last night for my area, picked up a quick .40". SPC day 1 ...Mid-Atlantic ad central Appalachians... Forcing for ascent from multiple shortwave disturbances across the northeast and dewpoints in the 60s to 70s F will support development of widely scattered thunderstorms by afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic into the central Appalachians. Though vertical shear will be generally weak, moderate to strong instability will be in place will support stronger updrafts capable of damaging winds. It is likely that several clusters will emerge with potential for organizing along cold pools and more focused corridors of damaging wind potential.

Looking like a lock that most area's receive < 1" precip from now through mid month. Best shot of any precip comes sunday but the timing is looking poor. Maybe some showers but not the best set up for convection despite the frontal passage. After that looks like another week of bone dry.

Every model was too far south with the precip today. Looks like southern PA on south should get at least another .25” today. Coming down at the moment here in Levittown and we had stuff come through overnight too for .15”.

I don't like to look ahead further than 15-20 days but first half of the month is looking normal maybe slightly below? Unfortunately looks dry as well so even though we got a brief respite from drought conditions. The nino precip anomalies are much more pronounced in the fall and winter months, it could be a few months before the drought truly breaks.

first half of june looks dry but comfortable at least

.8” overnight and this morning, 1.4” on the event, 2.6” since 5/20. Unfortunately looking dry again after this system scoots out.

.6” on the day, solid steady rain most of the afternoon. Another round of steady rain moving in that should most of the night. Expecting to finish well over an inch. 24 hour wundermap precip reports(personal weather stations) sure not looking like a miss for most. Excited to see the cocorahs reports tomorrow morning.