The Iceman

stolen from the mid atlantic forum... euro AI EPS trending cooler as well and backs up the OP. It'll be fun to watch until 18z

Pretty crazy spread

If there was one model I would want vs everyone it's the Euro AI. It's been killing it this winter. However, it has been very erratic with this event, I don't think I've seen it make this big of a swing in the mid range like this. Probably not done changing, but I am intrigued it came on board. With such a thread the needle look, odds are against it, but there are definite paths to snow. You could also look at the Euro AI as leading the way as it was the first one to keep things suppressed and finally all the other models trended to it and it ticks north. 18z will be telling if this was just a blip.

If you keep saying that's all she wrote for winter, eventually you'll be right because that's the nature of the seasons. However, just want to point out you were saying winter was cooked in January before our coldest stretch in 10 years... definitive statements in long range forecasting is fools errand.

Thoughts unchanged. This one will take a miracle to snow outside of n and w.

Ensembles in this range over any OP. However, ensembles argue more for a Euro AI solution imo. I don't see this one cutting if that ridging on the 500 MB is legit over NE canada. Now with that you risk a sheared out mess or squash. Cold air is also marginal. I don't know, there's a lot going against it. Seems like blocking either eases up north and we rain or it doesn't and it's squashed south again. I'd rather it cut than be squashed tbh, there would definitely be flooding issues next weekend if something like the euro OP plays out.

I'm above normal on the entire season so I don't know what's slipping away. If you can't be happy during this winter, time to move away no offense

It’s the rebound storm. -NAO and ao are surging towards neutral around that time, like you said if the confluence holds we snow, and probably snow big. I will say the models have tended to overplay the weakening of the NAO and AO ridging in the long range all year long. This is the pattern change storm, I don’t expect any model to have a hold on it until at least mid week. I like the look on the Euro AI though and especially the ensembles in the 500 means.. we run the risk of raining but the pattern is ripe for a big juicy qpf storm which is well needed either way…

keep the trips coming!! I'm liking this

KDIX being down is really putting a damper on my weenie radar hallucinations

bro what? Euro is a textbook thump to light sleet/frz rain. Almost the same storm as two weeks ago.

The gfs is just not a serious model. Look at 00z last night to 12z today for the 11-12th… only about 1000 mile difference with the low

AI EPS still likes the 15-17th period.. if you are referring to the 11-12th, that's another northern stream clipper that changes every 6 hours... it's going to change every 6 hours..

I'm just glad to know we can still do long sustained cold in these parts... I was getting worried that transient cold was the new norm.

HRRR really weenies it up for tomorrow night