The Iceman

.4” overnight and into this morning. 2.5” on the storm. Still light rain/misting this morning.

2.1” on the storm 7.2” on the month

.6” this morning looks like a lull in precipitation/spotty showers mostly this afternoon before maybe another slug of moisture overnight? Winds have also died down.

Maybe it’s just because there’s still so many leaves but it sounds like the wind is overperforming out there… wish I had an anemometer. Trenton airport has gusted over 40 several times overnight though which is pretty impressive this far inland especially since it’s not the peak. Saw some impressive gusts at the shore too think the highest I saw was 77 mph.

CMC and GFS took a step towards the EE solution but it's crazy how far off they remain from the euro/icon/NAM. Euro leading the way would be quite the coup, no other model was even close at day 4.

The old EE rule in effect now... would be crazy tidal flooding I would think with the prolonged NE fetch.

It is actually insane the amount of model spread we have 48 hours out. Euro/euro AI continues to give most of the area a legit northeaster, GFS/CMC continue to be a glancing blow. ICON/`NAM have moved in the EURO camp. The RGEM is in the GFS/CMC camp. If this was snow, people would be losing their minds lol

Trash model

.4” overnight/this morning 5.5” for September

All he does is win, same with Sirianni. I don’t care what it looks like, anyone you replace them with is just not going to replicate that success. It’s the golden era of eagles football. That was one of Hurts best passing games imo, first pick was bad but I see the intent, he was trying to put into a tight space and got burned… second pick wasn’t his fault at all, that’s a TD if the o line can block. He made some big time throws yesterday though and that should only improve as he gets more comfortable in the system.

1.3” yesterday. 5.1” on the month. Pleasant day today and should remain so the rest of the week. I turned off the AC a day too early on Saturday and needed it for the humidity yesterday but back off for the foreseeable future, hopefully until 2027!

Next week looking wet... I don't have my official total nearby for the month but I believe we are already at 5" or so. Could we get back to back months of double digit(10"+) rainfall? The drought has been beaten back big time this summer, crazy this was the drought map just 3 months ago! to now:

I'm pretty sure it's a GFS long range bias... It's been spitting out fantasy range hurricanes in that region for like the past month it feels like. Goes away a few days then pops up again in that same time frame.

2.7” this morning, seems like every major precipitation event significantly overperforms of late

Great point especially when you consider our last super nino in 2015-2016. That winter would have completely sucked but we got that HECS that brought 20-30” to everyone and that was an above normal winter across the board for everyone despite it being torchy overall. I think this winter will be similar. Lots of warm periods but lots of precipitation and that comes with a larger than normal chance of a big storm. If we get a big storm(12+”) it will be an above normal winter here and if not it’ll be below normal. I like looking at the last 3 supers around here(15-16, 97-98, 82-83), 83 and 2016 had the HECS so they finished above normal, 97-98 we couldn’t catch a break and finished below normal). It’s going to depend on the big dog, we won’t nickle and dime to normal or above normal this year imo. Appreciate the convo you started with GaWx! Will be watching the PDO as we enter fall.