The Iceman

Can I crash at casa de red sky? I think you’re in the best spot for this abomination lol

Don’t look now but radar out towards York and Lancaster looks pretty good… if temps can crash someone in Chester or norther bucks/montco is gonna get a couple inches imo

It never fails! 36 hours out!

Let’s bring it on home lots of ways this can go wrong… but it’s looking right now like 1-3” region wide with the potential for maybe more or nothing. With the event 36 hours out, I think it’s safe now to say there will be an event though. Final amounts tbd. I’m trying to manifest 3.6” though to get to 30” on the year. 48F right now.. cooking this afternoon. Outside in a T shirt lol

Just another wrinkle like Newman said is that accumulations are going to be rate dependent. It’s cooking out there today, temp here is 48F. A long duration light event won’t do, we will really need rates for it to accumulate. Timing is on our side being overnight. I think 1-3” is a safe forecast for now, bust potential high on both ends though. It won’t surprise me if I have 6” Monday morning or it’s raining lol

This still has all the makings of a rug pull, I think we have all said that since early week, but damn if I’m not getting sucked in…

stolen from the mid atlantic forum... euro AI EPS trending cooler as well and backs up the OP. It'll be fun to watch until 18z

Pretty crazy spread

If there was one model I would want vs everyone it's the Euro AI. It's been killing it this winter. However, it has been very erratic with this event, I don't think I've seen it make this big of a swing in the mid range like this. Probably not done changing, but I am intrigued it came on board. With such a thread the needle look, odds are against it, but there are definite paths to snow. You could also look at the Euro AI as leading the way as it was the first one to keep things suppressed and finally all the other models trended to it and it ticks north. 18z will be telling if this was just a blip.

If you keep saying that's all she wrote for winter, eventually you'll be right because that's the nature of the seasons. However, just want to point out you were saying winter was cooked in January before our coldest stretch in 10 years... definitive statements in long range forecasting is fools errand.

Thoughts unchanged. This one will take a miracle to snow outside of n and w.

Ensembles in this range over any OP. However, ensembles argue more for a Euro AI solution imo. I don't see this one cutting if that ridging on the 500 MB is legit over NE canada. Now with that you risk a sheared out mess or squash. Cold air is also marginal. I don't know, there's a lot going against it. Seems like blocking either eases up north and we rain or it doesn't and it's squashed south again. I'd rather it cut than be squashed tbh, there would definitely be flooding issues next weekend if something like the euro OP plays out.

I'm above normal on the entire season so I don't know what's slipping away. If you can't be happy during this winter, time to move away no offense

It’s the rebound storm. -NAO and ao are surging towards neutral around that time, like you said if the confluence holds we snow, and probably snow big. I will say the models have tended to overplay the weakening of the NAO and AO ridging in the long range all year long. This is the pattern change storm, I don’t expect any model to have a hold on it until at least mid week. I like the look on the Euro AI though and especially the ensembles in the 500 means.. we run the risk of raining but the pattern is ripe for a big juicy qpf storm which is well needed either way…

keep the trips coming!! I'm liking this