snowman19

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree we are in a "rut" period akin to the 80's, only adjusted warmer due to CC....it's also a different type of "rut", since that was a +PDO period....often those winters were done in by a lack of high latitude blocking, but this period has been marked by an extra tropical Pacific regime so hostile that it has largely negated any episodes of blocking, which has become easier to do given the warmer climate.

Just law of averages, eventually this rut is going to break, however, if I’m a betting man, this coming winter isn’t going to be the one that’s going to do it

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

While we like to focus on the historic 9 warmer to record winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño here in the Northeast, the extreme winter warmth across other CONUS regions has also been unprecedented. Before this period, having near a +10 monthly departure for a U.S. climate station would be a rare to uncommon event. We can remember the double digit departure months occurring much less frequently in the past. January 2006 in the Upper Midwest and March 2012 come to mind. Now these very high monthly winter departures have been happening yearly with multiple months in the same winter recording such departures. We have had a remarkable 11 winter months across varying ENSO states since December 2015 meeting this criteria for one or more climate stations. It’s even more impressive to see these monthly temperature departures occurring in the warmest climate normals period.

 

Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

Before my time, but it seems like we are into the throws of a 1979-1993 type of rut with bad winters. Only difference between now and then is that 13+ year period was actually cold, just had way below average snow. This one is an all out torch with way below average snow

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 In addition to Euro warm bias (though not nearly as bad as BoM was last year), folks shouldn't forget that model forecasted ONI needs to be reduced a good bit to best estimate where RONI will be.

As of right now, I see these being the main drivers going into winter: -PDO, La Niña, +AMO, solar, +QBO, AGW, any *possible* volcanic effects on the stratosphere TBD. With the IOD being neutral, I don’t see it being as big of a player as it has been the last few years. That said, if the IOD does go negative this fall (and I think it will), that will only favor the MJO in phases 4-7 even more, as if it needs any help staying in those phases semi permanently anyway. -IOD/Nina favors Maritime Continent and eastern IO forcing 

Although the -PDO and +AMO are the 2 main drivers right now and will continue to be, ENSO is going to become the 3rd driver within a few months. Everything continues to point to a very significant La Niña despite what the warm biased Euro may be showing. I’m becoming more confident this ends up being a moderate to strong Niña event

28 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm not sure if it's a shift to summer because the Northeast Pacific blocking pattern was there in the summers of 2014 and 2015, maybe even late summer 2013. The onset was about the same for both seasons (2013 or 2014), it's just that the pattern never seems to be in place in the winter after 2015. The most amazing thing about this 10+ year Northeast Pacific summer blocking pattern is that the only summers here in the Eastern US that were below average were 2014 and 2023. Oddly enough, both of those years were pre-nino summers. 2016 and 2020, the post-nino summers, were well above average (only trailing 2022). Those three summers were among the warmest ever in many places in the Eastern US.

 

As for 2019-20, that was one of the weirdest years ever. There was a stubborn weak el nino that just refused to dissipate. It didn't until fully until the spring.

19-20 was driven by the record ++IOD and also the strongly +AMO and to an extent by AGW. It lead to the SPV on roids and the severely positive NAO/AO that was unrelenting all winter long

If its weak in terms of ONI and moderate by RONI stadards, then that shouldn't be a death knell in and of itself....but if we can't get the waves out of the MC then nothing else really matters, anyway. I have learned that the hard way over the course of the past several years.

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Not necessarily Modoki but the models are showing at least basinwide, which would be in contrast to the E based Nina of 2017-8 and this was my point. I said “more basinwide”. The contrasts of this and the other 4 factors couldn’t be much bigger vs 2017-8. Also, @snowman19of course meant 2017-8 rather than the 2016-7 he has in his last post.

The February, 2018 historic SSW and subsequent huge AO/NAO blocking in March fit the “script” of La Niña, -QBO, low solar being very favorable for SSWEs. The most unfavorable combo for SSWEs would be Niña/+QBO/high solar

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Not necessarily Modoki but the models are showing at least basinwide, which would be in contrast to the E based Nina of 2017-8 and this was my point. I said “more basinwide”. The contrasts of this and the other 4 factors couldn’t be much bigger vs 2017-8. Also, @snowman19of course meant 2017-8 rather than the 2016-7 he has in his last post.

Yes. 17-18*

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Interesting discussion he did in advance of the winter of 2017-8 for the SE saying a benign winter wasn’t a shoe-in for 2017-8 largely because of a combo of the Niña not being strong (turned out E based moderate based on RONI), a strong (and dropping) -QBO (at 30 mb), and a very weak sun. His suspicions turned out to be prophetic. Jan was very cold and Dec/Jan ended up quite wintry with three major winter storms. One of those was a once in a multidecadal SE coastal storm that gave even my rarely hit area the biggest hit since at least Dec of 1989.

 How do these and other anticipated factors for 2023-4 compare? It couldn’t be that much more opposite:

1. very likely rising +QBO vs falling strong -QBO in 2017-8 (30 mb)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

 

2. likely stronger and more basin-wide Niña expected based on RONI vs E based moderate of 2017-18

RONI: lowest -1.25 in NDJ of 2017-18
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

Monthly SSTa showing it E based in 2017-18: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

 

3. much stronger sun a near certainty with it progged near max (sunspots (well) over 100) vs only 8.5 in 2017-8

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

 

4. Strong -PDO progged vs neutral in 2017-8:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat
 

5. Warmer globe vs 2017-8: 2023 was significantly warmer than 2022/earlier years (record breaking) and 2024 hasn’t backed off yet

Agree on all points. The models are showing this Niña event rather quickly becoming “Modoki” as we head into winter. 16-17 was exclusively east-based, as you said. Solar, QBO, PDO, AGW….not even close. Just to add, we didn’t have the MJO stuck in phases 4-7 back then and the AMO wasn’t ridiculously positive as it is now, helping to feedback into the SE ridge and magnify it

edit: *17-18

@40/70 Benchmark @GaWx Good info on QBO states during La Nina’s, also discusses solar. 
 

Link: http://blog.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/ninas-qbos-and-our-winter-weather

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The NOAA PDO for May of 2024 comes in way down at -2.97, which compares to the May WCS PDO of -1.86. The last time the May PDO was lower than this was way back in 1950. 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

 That tells me that the last few days of NOAA PDOs have very likely been near -4. I’m educatedly guessing that the upcoming winter NOAA PDO will average -1.5 or lower based on the model progs and recent trends. The last 3 winters have been sub -1.5. Getting a sub -2 will be very tough based on there having been only four that low since 1853-4. But there have been 16 sub -1.5 and La Niña will help the chance for, say, a -1.5 to -1.75 winter. I’ll be surprised if it isn’t sub -1.

Given the rapidly developing Niña, the SST configuration in the PAC and the overall cycle, would not surprise me at all to see a strong to very strong -PDO winter

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It takes a good year following solar max for the solar wind to really kick up the geomaetnic energy. Its not immediate. But regardless, obviosuly we aren't seeing a 1995-1996 or anything. lol

I wish I had a dollar for everytime the usual suspects on twitter said 95-96 was the analog when there is a La Niña 

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

My prediction for 2024-25 ONI & RONI:

AMJ 2024 ONI: +0.3; RONI: -0.45

MJJ 2024 ONI: 0.0; RONI: -0.87

JJA 2024 ONI: -0.5; RONI: -1.17

JAS 2024 ONI: -1.0; RONI: -1.42

ASO 2024 ONI: -1.4; RONI: -1.61

SON 2024 ONI: -1.5; RONI: -1.70

OND 2024 ONI: -1.4; RONI: -1.70

NDJ 2024-25 ONI: -1.4; RONI: -1.65

DJF 2024-25 ONI: -1.3; RONI: -1.53

JFM 2025 ONI: -1.1; RONI: -1.24

FMA 2025 ONI: -0.9; RONI: -1.00

If that happens the RONI will be rivaling 73-74 and 88-89

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Does it matter that much exactly what month the peak is determined to have occurred (which I’d think would have to be after the fact, regardless) if the peak is indeed going to end up occuring in early 2025?

That is true, we won’t know when the solar peak occurred until after it already happened. Early 2025 is just an educated guess by the experts right now 

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Which means we can probably get away with some bout(s) of blocking this year, theoretically speaking. Not suggesting it will be a favorable season per se, but perhaps not a wall-to-wall death star PV.

Doesn't mean it can't end up like that, either....just something to think about-

Maybe, question is when in “early” 2025 does it peak and start descending? Is it January, February, March? 

19 hours ago, snowman19 said:

With the epic furnace in the Atlantic (++AMO), if this (dust) continues, it may be the only thing that could help cap the number of cyclones that form this hurricane season, otherwise it’s probably going to be real bad given the other antecedent conditions globally
 

@40/70 Benchmark I wonder if this ends up being more of a factor than people, including myself were thinking with the Atlantic hurricane season? Could it possibly cause all the record tropical season forecasts to bust IF it continues?

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First of all, I'm not necessarily referring to a -NAO/AO season....I wrote "episodes of high latitude blocking". Second, my point is that geomagnetic energy and solar wind peak during the descending phase, not solar max...thus the descending phase is most hostile...more so than max.

Not disagreeing with you. Either way it looks like this solar max is going to peak sometime in early 2025, then we start descending 

With the epic furnace in the Atlantic (++AMO), if this (dust) continues, it may be the only thing that could help cap the number of cyclones that form this hurricane season, otherwise it’s probably going to be real bad given the other antecedent conditions globally
 

If you look back at every -NAO/-AO winter over the last 44+ years, since 1979, every single one of them occurred at a solar minimum, with a low number of sunspots and low geomag…..Without any exceptions. 
I don’t think we need to be at the exact peak of this solar max for it to be hostile to AO/NAO blocking. The high solar flux/high sunspots/high geomag alone argue very strongly against any sustained blocking in those domains this winter. That said, some experts are predicting that this solar max cycle peaks this winter/early next year. This should be an interesting one to watch

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If the solar peak ends up delayed, then that also delays the hostile period of geomagnetic particle disbursing solar wind that makes episodes of high latitude blocking so elusive.

If you look back at every -NAO/-AO winter over the last 44+ years, since 1979, every single one of them occurred at a solar minimum, with a low number of sunspots and low geomag…..Without any exceptions. 

I don’t think we need to be at the exact peak of this solar max for it to be hostile to AO/NAO blocking. The high solar flux/high sunspots/high geomag alone argue very strongly against any sustained blocking in those domains this winter. That said, some experts are predicting that this solar max cycle peaks this winter/early next year. This should be an interesting one to watch

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I figured that it would be performing ahead of 1998 at this time, as that was a stronger nino that dissipated later. However, the fact that it is performing ahead of 2010 suggests this is going to be a strong la nina. Remember, the 2009-10 el nino peaked lower than 2023-24 (at least on the ONI).

Agreed. When you see tropical instability waves that well pronounced, you know it means business. I think we see enhanced trades and easterly wind bursts (triggering upwelling and surface/subsurface cooling) shortly, which is typical with this kind of progression

This SSTA animation is showing very well defined tropical instability waves (“TIWs”), which are indicative of real healthy La Niña event developing. Enhanced trade winds and easterly wind bursts usually follow. To me, this suggests that at the very least, a moderate event becoming more and more likely. It is forming more rapidly than both ‘98 and ‘10 were at this point in time @GaWx
 

This high solar cycle continues to overperform

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Here is the 90 day SST bonkers amount of warm anomalies showing up just south of the Aleutians. This will change over time since there is a 12mb file limit on posts.

The furnace south of the Aleutians (if it continues), would strongly support Aleutian ridging/Aleutian high going into the cold season. Which would fit typical Niña climo

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doubt that, but we shall see.

As of now, I doubt an ONI that low too, the RONI however may be a different matter