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snowman19

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    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    The record WPAC warm pool and Aleutian Ridge are much more amplified than we typically see from +WPO patterns. Same goes for the new way the -PDO has played out in the 2020s. So the hemispheric expansion of the subtropical ridges are creating their own pattern. 

    The WPAC SSTS up to this point are matching previous years that went on to see predominantly +WPO winters

    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks!
     1. Based on the graph, June WCS PDO calculated to be ~-1.8. Based on recent relationships between WCS and NOAA, I had said that that likely meant the June NOAA PDO was likely down to the -2.5 to -2.9 range. So, the -2.51 jibes with my expectations.
    2. The unrounded AMJ ONI is -0.11. That means RONI minus ONI, -0.38, has narrowed even more. It was -0.43 in MAM, -0.49 in FMA, -0.51 in JFM, and -0.53 in DJF.

    My confidence in a solidly negative PDO winter is growing by the day, -IOD and -PMM seem like good bets as well. As far as ENSO, I’m still favoring a cold-neutral (-ENSO), however I think a weak La Niña is possible, at least in the RONI sense, I can care less what the ONI does. I think the MEI may go into weak Nina territory too given the SOI behavior over the last few months up until the present. The orientation of the ENSO cold anomalies; possible Modoki? Remains to be seen. As far as the Atlantic….the +AMO is never ending
    • Thanks 1

    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    This is why its important to be multidimensional and as exhuastive and all-encompassing as possible when doing an outlook...there are no silver bullets. 2011-2012 was also a moderately strong Modoki La Nina that occured during high solar. 
    I think if I had to offer advice to anyone doing an outlook, that sentence would be read "be eclectic in your approach as possible and be ever mindful that nothing operates in a vacuum".

    11-12 was a prime example of certain folks using the -QBO = big high latitude (AO/NAO) blocking….cold/snowy winter broad brush. I remember many winter outlooks that went cold and snowy for the east that fall based in very large part to the -QBO, only to colossally fail
    • Like 3

    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    I think the more reasonable ask is for a mismatch month....probably January is I had to guess.

    I mean we saw -EPO poleward blocking last winter with a +QBO, which actually fit the Eric Webb musings in the fall of +QBO/-ENSO causing poleward ridging well. I also completely see your -QBO/-ENSO blocking arguments too, 2011-12 being an exception of course. That said, I would be absolutely shocked to see a late November to early March cold regime dominate again this upcoming winter like it did last winter

    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    July has been a big trend month around the 91-20 average. The West coast has been extreme. 
    Here is July 81-90 vs 91-20, on the front half of the trend
    2aaa-16.png
    Now here's 2021-on vs the 91-20 average
    2aaaaa-12.png
    That's a +5-6F difference in the West coast ridge in July, the most unanomalous month of the year. 
    0z EPS through the first half of July has the same pattern occurring. 
    3aaaa-1.png
    3-Oc-Bbp03-N1-1.png
    Following Winters around the same base period (91-20) [minus 81-90, plus 21-25] look like this, which is relevant because the same global trend in the July pattern is likely to occur this year
    3aa-7.png

    So a coast to coast CONUS torch winter from Dec-Mar. If that was to actually happen I couldn’t imagine the meltdowns

    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    The record ridge over the WPAC driving the steep -PDO decline has resulted in the earliest end to the rainy season that the west of Japan has ever seen. Also part of the pattern which drove the all-time June heat the heat in the East a few days ago. So even with a neutral ENSO it’s creating a very strong La Niña background pattern. Very impressive forcing over the Maritime Continent.
    IMG_3924.gif.da59b0d2558b8d9b21978414641cb075.gif

    IMG_3925.gif.9770866b8de4eef4f9fa62f4946f092e.gif
    https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/general-news/20250627-266163/

    Rainy season appears to have ended in various parts of western Japan, it was announced Friday.

    According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, the season ended in the southern Kyushu region 18 days earlier than usual and 19 days earlier than last year. In the northern Kyushu region, the season ended 22 days earlier than usual and 20 days earlier than last year.

    The Shikoku region saw the season finish 20 days earlier than average and 20 days earlier than last year, and the Chugoku region was 22 days earlier than average and 24 days earlier than last year. In the Kinki region, the season finished 22 days earlier than average and 21 days earlier than last year. With the exception of southern Kyushu, this marks the earliest end of the rainy season in western Japan since records began in 1951.

     

    I wonder if this winter will be another case of the long wave pattern/forcing resembling a strong La Niña even though ENSO is in a cold-neutral or a weak La Niña state

    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    I think Gawx has done research correlating the Solar cycle with ENSO states. I think he found out that there might be a few year lag for highest correlation.. he posted it in ENSO threads in previous years (or maybe I am thinking of the NAO). 
    Thanks for the solar data by the way, that is actually really hard to find! 

    The solar connection to the NAO [mention=882]Gawx[/mention] found is a strong one. One of the other strongest ones I’ve seen besides your index, is a “tripole” in the SSTS appearing in June, corresponding to it reappearing during the winter months along with the associated -NAO. The study found that when June was completely void of a tripole, it corresponded to a predominantly +NAO winter. The Atlantic ACE connection to the NAO that some swear by was way too sketchy to be reliable IMO
    • Like 1

    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    Well, I gave you a list of easterly QBO/cool ENSO analogs a week or so back....the composite featured a ridge thatg was about as flat as a 50 year old weather dork's gut-

    Yea, I mean if there’s any truth to it and we do in fact see a -ENSO/-QBO and a ridge into the North Pole come Dec-Mar, then we can call bullshit
    • Like 3

    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    That makes sense to me....My early hunch is that we will have a strongly -EPO, and a near neutral to modeslty +WPO....I think this regression is temporary and we will recommence the climb out of this.

    I think this will be a really big test of the cold-ENSO/+QBO correlating to a poleward ridge and cold ENSO/-QBO correlating to a flat/equatorial ridge theory and research that Eric Webb tweeted about extensively late last fall. If there is any validity to it, we should be able to see the evidence of that this upcoming cold season (Dec-Mar)
    • Like 2

    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    Taking shape? Haven't we've been in a -PDO for at least the last 5.5 years, since January 2020?
    2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.992021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.712022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.24 -1.32 -2.64 -2.38 -2.29 -1.81 -2.41 -2.212023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.662024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.032025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71


    We have but we appear to be going back into a severely negative PDO again
    • Like 1

    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    Well, okay-but I don't know why you posted that link to support your comment, which indicates in bold font that -IOD isn't going to develop until late winter or spring.

    That’s southern hemisphere late winter or spring Ray. So our late summer or fall. BOM is Australia. They are in winter now
    • Haha 1

    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    La Nina is also somewhat of a -WPO indicator.. Indian Ocean didn't look like it had strong SSTA's that year. I would look at the map and say slightly negative projection. 

    We now have model consensus on a -IOD developing during the summer and fall

    2025-2026 ENSO

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    Yeah, mostly being driven by the record SSTs across the Western Pacific Basin. Still well above average SSTs off the West Coast Mexico and Central America. This boosted the recent record breaking early RI with Erick. Only a small area of cooler -PDO SSTs off the California Coast.
     
     

    Those cold SSTs off the California coast and Baja are -PMM. This -PDO regime has been nothing short of astounding
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